The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Corbin Burnes ($9,100) Arizona Diamondbacks (-425) vs. Colorado Rockies
What is the best ice cream flavor? Personally, I’m a vanilla man myself. A soft serve vanilla ice cream with chocolate sprinkles is about as good as it gets. Of course, there are plenty of other acceptable answers, so I wouldn’t fight you too hard on whatever you choose.
But the best flavor pitching matchup for MLB DFS? That is undoubtedly Rockies Road. Facing the Rockies away from Coors Field sets up almost any pitcher for success. They’re averaging just 2.14 runs per game on the road this season, which is the worst mark in baseball by a wide margin. They have a 49 wRC+ when facing a right-hander on the road this season, and no other squad is below 70. Add in the highest strikeout rate in baseball in that split, and it simply does not get better from a matchup standpoint.
Burnes will get the pleasure of facing the Rockies in Arizona on Friday. He’s a massive -425 favorite, and that’s not a number that we see very often. There have only been 55 previous instances in our database of a pitcher having moneyline odds between -475 and -375, and those starters have posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.93 (per the Trends tool).
Burnes also ranks second on the slate with a 3.1-run opponent implied total, while his 6.84 K Prediction ranks third. The fact that he’s priced at just $9,100 is merely the cherry on top. He leads all pitchers in projected Plus/Minus and ceiling projection, despite being just the seventh-most-expensive pitcher on the slate.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Taj Bradley ($7,000) Tampa Bay Rays (-117) at Miami Marlins
Facing the Marlins isn’t quite as appealing as facing the Rockies, but it’s not too far off. Their lineup is 24th in wRC+ against right-handers this season, and they have the third-highest strikeout rate.
That makes Bradley an appealing value option at just $7,000. He hasn’t been great this season, pitching to a 4.24 ERA, but his advanced metrics suggest he’s been unlucky. His xERA is significantly lower at 3.44, and he’s done an excellent job at limiting hard contact.
Bradley hasn’t had the success you’d expect from a strikeout standpoint this season, but he has plenty of room for positive regression in that department as well. He averaged more than 10 strikeouts per nine innings in each of the past two seasons, and he’s coming off five punchouts in his last start. That’s still not an elite figure by any stretch of the imagination, but it’s his best showing since his third start of the year.
His metrics across the board all look better than his $7,000 salary suggests. He owns a 4.0 opponent implied team total and a 5.5 K Prediction, and pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.05 with similar salaries. Ultimately, he’s very viable as an SP2.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Logan Webb ($9,700) San Francisco Giants (-200) vs. Athletics
Webb has the top opponent implied team total of the day at 3.0 runs, and he’s typically an undervalued pitcher in DFS. He’s known more for his elite batted-ball metrics, and he remains one of the best in the business in that department. However, he’s also piled up plenty of punchouts this season, with his 29.9% strikeout rate putting him in the 85th percentile. He’ll also get to toe the rubber at home on Friday, where he owns a ridiculous 0.44 ERA and 1.67 FIP in 2025.
Chris Sale ($8,900) Atlanta Braves (-104) at Boston Red Sox
Sale’s numbers are way down compared to last year’s Cy Young-winning campaign, but he’s been much improved of late. He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts, and he’s added at least eight strikeouts in four of them. He’s gotten to double-digit strikeouts in two of those outings, which is where his appeal really comes from. Sale remains one of the top strikeout artists in all of baseball, and he leads the slate in K Prediction vs. the Red Sox. It’s far from an ideal matchup, but Sale could be undervalued at $8,900.
Dustin May ($7,200) Los Angeles Dodgers (-300) vs. Los Angeles Angels
It’s pretty rare to get a -300 favorite at just $7,200, and it’s even rarer when that guy is projected for just 10% ownership. That’s the case with May on Friday. He hasn’t looked like the same pitcher in 2025 after missing all of last season with injuries, but he still benefits from playing for one of the best teams in baseball. His matchup vs. the Angels is also phenomenal: they rank merely 26th in wRC+ vs. right-handers, and they have the highest strikeout rate in baseball in that split. This is a fantastic buy-low opportunity on a player who was once considered one of the best young pitchers in the league.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
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The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected points belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
Another way to use May is to correlate him with his offense. The Dodgers are obviously one of the top offensive teams in baseball, and if they go off, it increases the likelihood of May picking up the win bonus.
The Dodgers’ offense has displayed plenty of upside recently, going for at least eight runs in three of their past four games. That includes their series finale vs. the Athletics on Thursday, where the team racked up 19 runs and five homers.
They could do it again to start their series vs. their interstate rivals. They’ll square off with Jack Kochanowicz, who has struggled to a 5.23 ERA and 4.80 xERA so far this season. He’s been unable to miss any bats this season—he ranks in just the third percentile for strikeout rate—and he’s also allowed plenty of hard contact. It’s hard to make a living as a pitcher that way, especially when facing elite teams like the Dodgers.
The Dodgers are implied for a whopping 6.2 runs in this matchup, and they’re top five features some of the best hitters in baseball. They’ve absolutely smashed against right-handers since the start of last season (via PlateIQ):
Shohei Ohtani is the clear headliner here, and he has been on a tear recently. He’s homered in seven of his past 12 games, including two homers vs. the Athletics on Thursday.
The downside of this stack is that it is expensive, though it’s not nearly as bad as it could be. Max Muncy provides a bit of savings at $3,100, and while he’s had a rough start to the year, he’s starting to show signs of life. He’s homered in back-to-back games, so even the Dodgers’ cheap hitters have plenty of upside. Overall, it’s hard to argue against them being the top stack of the day.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Randall Grichuk OF ($2,400) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies (Carson Palmquist)
Finding some salary-savers is important if you want to pay up for some of the stud arms or bats on this slate, and Grichuk stands out as one of the best. He’s expected to hit third for the Diamondbacks on Friday at just $2,400, which is an excellent combination.
Grichuk is someone who has torn up left-handed pitching for most of his career. He’s posted a 119 wRC+ in that split for his career, including a 151 mark with the Diamondbacks last season. He hasn’t hit quite that well so far this season, but he’s also had just 55 plate appearances against southpaws. Expect some positive regression moving forward.
Not only will Grichuk be facing a lefty on Friday, but he’ll be facing one making his MLB debut. Palmquist has had some solid minor league results, but he’s not a particularly lauded prospect. We’ve seen a much better prospect struggle mightily in his debut season with the Rockies (Chase Dollander), so it wouldn’t be a huge shock if Palmquist followed suit. Ultimately, Grichuk ranks second among hitters in projected Plus/Minus using the blended projections.
Amed Rosario 2B/3B ($3,800) Washington Nationals at Baltimore Orioles (Cade Povich)
Rosario was once considered one of the best prospects in baseball, and he was the headliner in the trade that landed Francisco Lindor with the Mets. Unfortunately, he has never lived up to the billing. He’s bounced around the league for the past few seasons before landing in Washington.
However, the one thing that Rosario can do is hit southpaws. He’s posted a 148 wRC+ in that split so far this season, and he’ll get a matchup vs. an exploitable left-hander on Friday. Povich has struggled mightily for the Orioles this season, pitching to a 5.55 ERA and 6.25 xERA. He’s been demolished in particular by right-handed batters, surrendering a .399 wOBA in that split.
Rosario is very affordable in this matchup, and he’s currently slated to bat second in the Nationals’ projected lineup. That makes him a solid option for cash games, and he has some upside for GPPs as well.
Bobby Witt Jr. SS ($5,800) Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Andre Pallante)
With most of the attention being focused on Ohtani and the Dodgers, Witt could fly a bit under the radar on Friday. He’s off to another phenomenal start in 2025, batting .312 with five homers and 15 steals, and he’ll be facing an exploitable pitcher in Pallante. His xERA checks in above 5.00, so Witt has as much upside as anyone on this slate.
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Pictured: Mookie Betts
Photo Credit: Getty Images
