The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Max Fried ($10,000) New York Yankees (-292) vs. Baltimore Orioles
There are a few different pitchers to consider at the top of the pricing spectrum on Friday, with three starters priced at $10,000 or more. Fried is probably the worst fantasy pitcher of the group in a vacuum, but he benefits from the best set of circumstances on this slate.
For starters, he has the best Vegas data of the group by a solid margin. He’s the biggest favorite of the day at -292, while his 3.4 opponent implied run total is tied for first. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries and Vegas data have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.00 (per the Trends tool).
Fried also draws the best matchup of the trio against the Orioles. While Baltimore entered the year with big expectations, they have not lived up to them so far this season. Their offense has been particularly poor, ranking 24th in runs per game and 28th in wRC+ vs. left-handed pitchers. Their projected lineup also has a massive 28.7% strikeout rate vs. southpaws over the past 12 months, which is the third-worst splits-adjusted mark on the slate.
Add in the fact that Fried is the cheapest of this trio by a significant margin, and he’s the clear top pay-up option on this slate. He’s posted at least 20.15 DraftKings points and a positive Plus/Minus in three straight outings, and he’s in a great spot to do it again.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Clayton Kershaw ($7,200) Los Angeles Dodgers (-200) vs. Washington Nationals
When Kershaw was first activated from the IL, it appeared as though he wasn’t going to be a particularly useful pitcher. He pitched to a 5.17 ERA and 5.42 FIP through his first four outings, and he racked up just eight strikeouts in 15.1 innings. Pitching for the Dodgers was still going to give him some win chances, but that was really all he had going for him.
Of course, Kershaw has a long track record of success, and he’s unsurprisingly turned things around since then. He’s allowed just one run over his past two outings, adding 12 strikeouts in 12 innings. His last showing was particularly impressive, surrendering just three hits and one walk against the Giants. Overall, Kershaw owns a 1.31 FIP over those two starts, so he appears to still have something left in the tank.
He’s getting plenty of respect from Vegas in this spot. The Nationals are implied for just 3.4 runs, which is tied for the lowest mark on the slate, and the Dodgers are -200 favorites. It’s not easy to find a pitcher with such strong Vegas data at a $7,200 price tag.
The Nationals stand out as a decent matchup as well, ranking as a below-average squad in wRC+ vs. southpaws. Ultimately, if Kershaw puts together another strong showing, this could be our last chance to target him at a discount.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Zack Wheeler ($10,800) Philadelphia Phillies (-200) vs. New York Mets
While Fried stands out as the better pure value, Wheeler arguably has the highest ceiling on this slate. He leads all pitchers with a 7.29 K Prediction, and he’s also a -200 favorite. The Mets are far from an easy opponent, but Wheeler could be catching them at the right time. They’ve lost six straight games, and they’re going to be using Blade Tidwell in a spot start on Friday. That gives the Phillies and Wheeler plenty of win expectancy.
Tanner Bibee ($7,000) Cleveland Guardians (-123) at Athletics
The circumstances for Bibee aren’t nearly as favorable. He’ll have to travel West to take on the Athletics in their small home ballpark, which has graded out as one of the most hitter-friendly venues in baseball this season (per Statcast Park Factors). However, Bibee is simply a much better pitcher than this salary implies. He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.31 with a salary of $7,500 or lower, and while the Athletics’ offense is vastly improved, they’re still not a team that you necessarily need to avoid. Overall, he ranks first in THE BAT X in projected Plus/Minus.
Nick Pivetta ($9,300) San Diego Padres (-161) vs. Kansas City Royals
Pivetta is a slightly cheaper alternative to the stud pitchers on this slate. He doesn’t provide the same strikeout upside, but his Vegas data is comparable: -161 moneyline odds, 3.4 opponent implied run total. The Royals don’t strike out often vs. right-handed pitchers, but they also don’t do much damage, ranking 27th in wRC+ in that split.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected points using THE BAT X belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:

The big dilemma on this slate is trying to prioritize the stud pitchers vs. the Diamondbacks’ offense. Arizona’s top stack is extremely expensive, setting you back $28,000, so pairing them with someone like Fried or Wheeler is basically impossible.
While I typically lean towards the upside with the stud pitchers – it’s far easier for a cheap offense to go off than a cheap hurler – there’s no denying the Diamondbacks’ upside on this slate. They’ll head to Coors Field to start a series with the Rockies, and they lead the slate with a massive 7.1 implied run total. No other team is above 5.5, so the gap between them and the rest of the field is pretty wide.
The Diamondbacks will be squaring off with Austin Gomber, who is making just his second start of the year. He pitched pretty well in the first, but that game came on the road. Things will be much tougher for him at Coors, where he pitched to an ERA near 5.00 and a 1.89 HR/9 last season.
However, the fact that Gomber is left-handed could help a bit. The Diamondbacks’ top five have struggled against southpaws this season, with Ketel Marte, Eugenio Suarez, and Josh Naylor all posting a wOBA of .288 or lower (via PlateIQ):

Unfortunately, both Marte and Suarez have been much better in that split for their careers, so it’s possible that this is just too small of a sample size. Batters don’t face nearly as many left-handers as right-handers, and with the 2025 season not even halfway through, they have plenty of time to improve those marks moving forward.
If you’re looking to get some cheaper exposure to the Diamondbacks, Randal Grichuk stands out as a potential option. He’s much more affordable than some of his teammates, and his numbers against southpaws this season are respectable.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.

Giancarlo Stanton, OF ($3,700) New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles (Tomoyuki Sugano)
Stanton has yet to go yard since returning for the Yankees, but he’s posted some excellent batted-ball metrics in his first few games. His hard-hit rate is north of 70%, while his average exit velocity is better than 94 miles per hour. If he keeps making contact like that, it should lead to plenty of positive results.
Stanton is still priced at a discount at $3,700, especially for a Yankees’ lineup with a 5.5-run implied total. His matchup vs. Sugano is also favorable, and he ranks fourth in the blended projection set in projected Plus/Minus.
Michael Toglia, 1B ($3,200) Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Zac Gallen)
While the Rockies don’t have the same upside as the Diamondbacks, they still get the same benefit of playing at Coors Field. They’re also significantly cheaper, so they can be paired with one of the stud pitchers. That makes them a very interesting pivot for tournaments.
Toglia is someone who has big-time power. He also strikes out at an insane rate, which is why he was sent back down to the minor leagues earlier this season. He’s cut his strikeouts down a bit since returning earlier this week, and he’s launched three homers with six RBIs in his past four games.
The ownership on the Rockies should also be modest, so using Toglia as a one-off or as part of a larger stack has plenty of upside.
Bo Bichette, SS ($4,100) Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox (Davis Martin)
The Blue Jays are another team with an excellent matchup on Friday. They’re taking on Martin, who has been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball this season. His 5.35 xERA puts him in just the eighth percentile, and he’s allowed plenty of loud contact and homers as well.
Bichette is a reasonably priced leadoff target for the Blue Jays, especially at one of the tougher positions to fill. He leads all shortstops in projected Plus/Minus using the blended projection set.
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Pictured: Corbin Carroll
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