The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Garrett Crochet ($10,800) Boston Red Sox (-147) vs. New York Yankees
The top spot at pitcher on Friday comes down to Crochet vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Neither pitcher has an ideal matchup, but Crochet’s vs. the Yankees is undoubtedly a bit tougher than Yamamoto’s vs. the Giants. That’s reflected in the Vegas data. The Yankees are currently implied for 4.0 runs, while the Giants’ 3.3 implied run total is the second-lowest on the slate. That would appear to give Yamamoto the edge.
However, run prevention isn’t everything. Piling up strikeouts is also a big part of DFS, and Crochet has Yamamoto beat in that department. The Yankees have plenty of swing-and-miss in their game. Their projected lineup has a 25.4% strikeout rate against southpaws over the past 12 months, while the Giants are at just 22.1% against right-handers this season. Crochet is also a better strikeout arm to begin with – his strikeout rate is north of 31% – giving him a clear edge on Friday. He leads the slate with an 8.11 K Prediction, while Yamamoto is well behind at 6.78.
Ultimately, neither pitcher stands out as a particularly strong value at their five-figure salary, so this pick comes down to upside. Crochet has the higher ceiling in our projections, and he’s delivered some big performances of late. He had 12 strikeouts vs. the Braves two starts ago, and he followed that up with nine punchouts in six innings vs. the Yankees. Crochet still managed to get to 21.3 DraftKings points in that start despite allowing five earned runs, so if he can do a bit better from a run prevention standpoint, few pitchers in baseball can match his upside.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Bryce Elder ($7,800) Atlanta Braves (-320) vs. Colorado Rockies
With all due respect to Crochet and Yamamoto, Elder is the easiest selection of the day. That has nothing to do with Elder himself. He’s not a particularly good pitcher, posting a 4.08 ERA and 4.22 xERA through his first 10 starts. He’s also not a particularly good strikeout arm, ranking in the 41st percentile for strikeout rate.
Instead, this has everything to do with the matchup. Getting to face the Rockies outside of Coors Field is basically a cheat code for pitchers at this point. They’ve been historically bad this season. Against right-handers, they’re dead last with a 57 wRC+ on the road, and they also have the highest strikeout rate in the league. It’s tough to beat that combination.
Elder and the Braves are massive -320 favorites in this spot, and it’s hard to pass up that kind of win potential at just $7,800. The Rockies’ 3.1 implied run total is also the lowest mark on the board. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries and Vegas data have absolutely smashed, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.65 (per the Trends tool).
In addition to the best Vegas data on the slate, Elder also ranks fourth in K Prediction. He’s merely the ninth-most-expensive pitcher, so he is significantly underpriced for this contest. He’ll likely be the highest-owned pitcher by a pretty comfortable margin, but this is chalk that is worth eating.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($10,600) Los Angeles Dodgers (-190) vs. San Francisco Giants
While Crochet gets a slight edge in our projections, Yamamoto is certainly still a viable target. He’s been just as impressive as Crochet for most of the year, ranking in the 88th percentile for strikeout rate and 89th percentile for xERA. He also has much more win expectancy in his matchup, and he’s projected for roughly half the ownership.
Gavin Williams ($8,000) Cleveland Guardians (-105) at Seattle Mariners
Williams got off to a rocky start this season, but he’s improved as the year has progressed. He had a 3.28 ERA in five May starts, and he’s at 2.13 so far in June. Williams has also taken a step forward from a strikeout standpoint, racking up 43 punchouts in his last 34.1 innings. Add in a matchup vs. the Mariners – who have the ninth-highest strikeout rate against righties – and an appearance in the most pitcher-friendly venue in baseball, and there’s plenty to like with Williams on Friday.
Charlie Morton ($6,300) Baltimore Orioles (-187) vs. Los Angeles Angels
There’s a good chance that Morton is simply cooked at this point. He’s 41 years old, and his numbers are down virtually across the board this season. That said, his advanced stats aren’t nearly as bad as his traditional ones, and he’s still racking up strikeouts at a respectable clip. Add up the -187 moneyline odds, a matchup vs. the team with the highest strikeout rate in the league vs. right-handers, and a $6,300 price tag, and you’ve got the makings of a solid tournament punt play.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Baltimore Orioles:
It has been a year to forget for the Orioles so far. They were expected to take another step forward this season despite losing Corbin Burnes in free agency, but they’ve taken a step back instead. They’re currently in last place in the AL East, and they’re 25th in the league in runs per game.
Still, they have plenty of talent throughout their lineup, and they put up 10 runs just two games ago. It’s possible that they can turn things around at some point, and they’re in a great spot to do so on Friday. They’re taking on Jack Kochanowicz, who has been extremely exploitable so far this season. He owns a 5.61 ERA, while his xERA and FIP are also over 5.00. He’s also surrendered 1.47 homers per nine innings.
Baltimore has also been a much more hitter-friendly venue in 2025. They moved in the fence in left field, and as a result, it’s graded out as the third-best hitter’s park this season (per Statcast Park Factors). Only Coors Field and Sutter Health Park have been more beneficial for batters this season. Add it all up, and the Orioles lead the slate with a 6.2 implied run total.
Which batters to target in Baltimore is the bigger question. The above stack is a bit unconventional, but it allows you to jam in five lefties without breaking the bank. It will cost you just $21,000, which makes it pretty easy to get to either Crochet or Yamamoto as your SP1. Kochanowicz’s biggest struggles this season have come against lefties, with those batters posting a massive .535 SLG against him. His HR/9 balloons to 2.29 in that split, so all the Orioles’ lefties have significant appeal in this spot.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Aaron Judge, OF ($6,600) New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox (Garrett Crochet)
If you’re fading Crochet on this slate, it could make sense to double down and get some exposure to the Yankees. It’s hard to do much better in that regard than targeting Judge. Not only is he the best hitter on the planet, but he’s been other-worldly against southpaws in 2025 (via PlateIQ):
Playing in Fenway Park also shouldn’t hurt. It’s historically been a solid offensive venue for right-handed hitters, with the Green Monster in left field routinely turning fly balls into doubles or homers.
Judge shouldn’t command a ton of ownership in this spot, making him the perfect GPP target on this slate.
Royce Lewis, 3B ($2,700) Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros (Colton Gordon)
Lewis has not hit the ball well this season, but he’s too talented to struggle forever. He was once considered the No. 1 prospect in all of baseball, and while injuries have prevented him from truly becoming a star, he’s typically posted solid numbers when healthy. He had a 145 wRC+ in 2022 and a 154 mark in 2023, and he launched a career-best 16 homers last year.
Like Judge, Lewis should benefit from his circumstances on Friday. He’ll be taking on a southpaw in Gordon, who has struggled to a 5.11 ERA through his first five MLB starts. The lefty has unsurprisingly been at his worst against right-handed batters.
Daiken Park in Houston also features one of the shortest porches in baseball in left field, so it’s a great spot for righty hitters to find a cheap homer. Lewis ranks second in projected Plus/Minus using our blended projection set, so he’s a solid source of savings with upside at $2,700.
Juan Soto, OF ($5,300) New York Mets vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Taj Bradley)
Don’t look now, but Soto is heating up for the Mets. He’s homered in two of his past three games, and he has at least 14.0 DraftKings points in four of his past five.
That’s not exactly a shocker. There’s a reason this guy got the largest contract in MLB history. His advanced metrics remain elite, so he was going to turn things around eventually.
Soto’s price is still a bit depressed after his slow start to the season. Now that he’s back to crushing baseballs, he makes for a solid leverage option in a potent Mets’ lineup.
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Pictured: Bryce Elder
Photo Credit: Ed Szczepanski-Imagn Images
