The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Robbie Ray ($9,000) San Francisco Giants (-149) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Ray is not someone who is considered a true “stud” for fantasy purposes, but he’s pretty damn close. He has a 2.93 ERA for the year, and he has historically been an elite strikeout pitcher. His K numbers are slightly down in 2025, but his 24.3% strikeout rate still grades out as above average. He’s averaged just under nine strikeouts per nine innings, which is still a very respectable mark.
Ray has a bit more strikeout upside than usual on Friday. It starts with a matchup vs. the Orioles. They have the seventh-highest strikeout rate against southpaws this season, and that probably undersells how good this matchup is. The Orioles’ lineup isn’t quite as formidable since the trade deadline, and they have the fourth-highest strikeout rate against lefties over the past 30 days. Their projected lineup owns a 27.8% strikeout rate in that split over the past year, which is the third-highest splits-adjusted mark on the slate.
Ray will also get to face the Orioles in San Francisco, which is where he’s done his best work this season. That’s not a huge shock. Oracle Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly venues in baseball, and Ray owns a 2.84 ERA at home this season.
Add it all up, and Ray’s 6.93 K Prediction is the top mark of the day. His 3.5 opponent implied team total ranks second on the slate, and he’s a moderate -149 favorite. It’s enough to make him the top target on a day without a ton of elite options.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Jonah Tong ($8,500) New York Mets (-185) vs. Miami Marlins
Expectations for Tong could not be much higher in his MLB debut. The 22-year-old hurler has drawn comparisons to Tim Lincecum, and his numbers in the minors this year are downright disgusting. He’s pitched to a 1.43 ERA and 1.67 FIP with 179 strikeouts across 113.2 innings, good for an average of better than 14 strikeouts per nine innings. Most of his dominance has come at Double-A, but he pitched two scoreless outings with 17 punchouts in his two Triple-A starts. It was enough for the Mets to decide he was ready for the big leagues.
Tong is getting plenty of respect in his first matchup. He’ll take on the Marlins, and Miami is implied for a slate-low 3.5 runs. Tong is also a sizable -185 favorite, while his 6.32 K Prediction ranks third on the slate.
The only real question is how deep Tong will be allowed to pitch into this contest. However, the Mets have been pretty aggressive with fellow rookie Nolan McLean, and Tong has enough strikeout upside to potentially pay off his salary in just five innings of work. The Marlins’ offense isn’t particularly intimidating – especially without Kyle Stowers – so there’s no reason Tong can’t live up to the billing in his first career start.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Paul Skenes ($10,600) Pittsburgh Pirates (-104) at Boston Red Sox
Skenes is arguably the best pitcher in the league, so it’s pretty shocking to see such mediocre Vegas data for him on Friday. He’ll have to face a tough Red Sox lineup in Boston, but this is still Paul Skenes. He owns a 2.07 ERA and 10.12 K/9 this season, and he’s coming off seven scoreless innings in his last outing. He’s projected for significantly less ownership than usual on this slate, so he’s an interesting pivot off Ray for tournaments.
Payton Tolle ($7,600) Boston Red Sox (-116) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Tong isn’t the only highly-touted prospect making his debut on Friday. Tolle will get the nod for the Red Sox, and he’s their top pitching prospect. His numbers aren’t quite as mind-boggling as Tong’s this season, but he draws a fantastic first matchup vs. the Pirates. They’re 26th in wRC+ vs. southpaws this season, and they have the second-highest strikeout rate in that split. He will have to go against Skenes – which hurts his win potential – but it’s a spot where he could certainly do some damage.
Cristian Javier ($7,900) Houston Astros (-168) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Javier has not been particularly impressive since joining the Astros’ rotation, but he has a solid track record of success at the MLB level. He also draws an elite matchup Friday vs. the Angels. Los Angeles does have some scary bats in their lineup, but they strike out at a massive frequency. They own the top strikeout rate in baseball against right-handed pitchers, so Javier has significantly more upside than usual.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected points using THE BAT X belongs to the Chicago Cubs:
The Cubs are already one of the top offensive teams in baseball, ranking seventh in runs per game and seventh in homers. Now, they’ll get to take their offense to the best hitting environment in the league. They’ll start a series vs. the Rockies in Coors Field on Friday, which gives their offense even more upside than usual. They lead the slate with a 6.8 implied run total, and no other team is above 5.6.
Chicago will square off with German Marquez, who is not a particularly good pitcher at this point in his career. He owns a 5.67 ERA and 5.16 xERA, and he grades out well below average in most key pitching metrics. Most notably, he struggles to generate strikeouts and limit hard contact, which is a recipe for disaster when pitching at Coors Field.
The only real question is, what is the best way to stack the Cubs on this slate? The top projected stack in THE BAT X is a bit of an unconventional 1-2-3-4-8 combination, including shortstop Dansby Swanson. However, you can also choose to replace Swanson with projected No. 5 hitter Carson Kelly. Not only does that increase the correlation, but it takes care of the tricky catcher spot in your lineup. It’s also -$100 cheaper, and Kelly has basically torn the cover off the ball all season. His numbers against righties have been far more impressive than Swanson’s (via Plate IQ):
Regardless of how you choose to stack the Cubs, it’s going to set you back a decent chunk of change. You’ll likely need to go with multiple value options at pitcher, but squeezing in one of Ray or Tong is doable.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Wyatt Langford, OF ($4,600) Texas Rangers at Athletics (Jeffrey Springs)
Langford owns the top projected Plus/Minus among non-Coors bats in our blended projection set. He’s expected to hit at the top of the Rangers’ lineup, and they also get a pretty massive park upgrade on Friday. They’ll head to Sacramento to take on the Athletics, and Sutter Health Park has been extremely hitter-friendly this season.
Langford will also be on the positive side of his splits vs. Springs. He’s done significant damage against southpaws this season, posting a 128 wRC+. He has power and speed upside, giving him multiple paths to a big performance on Friday.
Nick Gonzalez, 2B ($3,000) Pittsburgh Pirates at Boston Red Sox (Payton Tolle)
While Tolle has some appeal as a value option on Friday, using batters against him isn’t the craziest idea, either. Plenty of highly-touted prospects have struggled to adjust to life at the MLB level, and Tolle wasn’t exactly unhittable in Triple-A (3.60 ERA, 1.20 HR/9).
Gonzalez stands out as an interesting value option at just $3,000. He’s a far more dangerous hitter against southpaws than righties, posting a 110 wRC+ and .190 ISO in that split this season. He’s also expected to hit second in the Pirates’ lineup, and it’s hard to find guys this cheap with a premium lineup spot.
Mickey Moniak, OF ($3,500) Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs (Cade Horton)
The Rockies also get to play at Coors, and while their lineup isn’t nearly as dangerous as the Cubs’, they still have some clear threats. Moniak is chief among them. He’s been outstanding at Coors this season, posting a .907 OPS with a .273 ISO. He’ll be on the positive side of his splits vs. Horton, so he’s underpriced at $3,500.
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Pictured: Robbie Ray
Photo Credit: Imagn
