The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Logan Gilbert ($10,000) Seattle Mariners (-190) vs. Texas Rangers
Gilbert has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. His 3.36 ERA doesn’t exactly jump off the page, but his advanced metrics suggest he’s been slightly unlucky. His 2.74 xERA puts him in the 93rd percentile, while he has a 2.86 FIP. Both of those would represent new career bests.
However, Gilbert’s best attribute has been his ability to miss bats. He’s always been respectable from a strikeout standpoint, but he’s taken things to another level in 2025. He’s averaging better than 13 strikeouts per nine innings, and his strikeout rate puts him in the 97th percentile. Unsurprisingly, he leads the slate with a 7.35 K Prediction, and no other starter is with a full strikeout.
Additionally, Gilbert benefits from an excellent matchup. He’s taking on the Rangers, who have been a disappointing offensive team all season. They’re merely 25th in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers, and they’re implied for just 3.3 runs in this contest. Gilbert is a sizable -190 favorite, and pitchers with comparable Vegas data and K Predictions have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.77 (per the Trends tool).
Finally, this game will be played in Seattle, which is the most pitcher-friendly park in baseball (per Statcast Park Factors). Gilbert has an ERA below 2.00 when pitching at home this season, so he checks all the boxes in this matchup. He’s the clear-cut top choice on Friday’s slate.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code FL55.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Gavin Williams ($7,800) Cleveland Guardians (-125) vs. Minnesota Twins
The Twins absolutely gutted their roster at the deadline. They traded away 10 players on their 26-man active roster, and they have just two players currently under contract for next season. It’s going to make them significantly weaker for the remainder of the season, and it could be the start of a rebuilding process.
Meanwhile, the Guardians chose to remain competitive. They made a few smaller deals, but they held on to guys like Steven Kwan, Emmanuel Clase, and Cade Smith. They’re just three games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League, so they’re going to give it their best shot.
Williams will get the ball Friday vs. the Twins, and he’s in a solid spot to pick up a win. Minnesota wasn’t great on offense before the deadline – they’re 22nd in wRC+ vs. right-handers – and they’re probably going to be worse moving forward. They’re implied for just 3.5 runs on this slate, which is tied for the third-lowest mark of the day.
Williams is also a decent pitcher in general. He throws hard, with his average fastball velocity checking in at 96.5 miles per hour, and he’s piled up 109 strikeouts in 110.1 innings. He’s been extremely reliable after a shaky first month, posting a 2.95 ERA since May 1. He’s made 15 starts over that time frame, and he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in 10 of them.
Ultimately, Williams stands out as one of the best pitching values of the day. He leads all arms in projected Plus/Minus in THE BAT X, and he has a reasonable ceiling as well. His 6.11 K Prediction ranks third on the slate, which is outstanding for a pitcher with a $7,800 price tag.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Carlos Rodon ($10,200) New York Yankees (-174) at Miami Marlins
Rodon has had a strong bounceback campaign for the Yankees, posting a 3.18 ERA and 3.20 xERA with excellent strikeout metrics. He’s coming off an eight-strikeout performance vs. the Phillies in his last outing, and he draws an excellent matchup vs. the Marlins on Friday. The Yankees are sizable -174 favorites, and Miami ranks merely 23rd in wRC+ vs. southpaws.
Robbie Ray ($8,800) San Francisco Giants (+121) at New York Mets
The Mets have a tough offense, and they were able to beat Ray in San Francisco a week ago. However, that performance stands out as a bit of an outlier. They’re 24th in wRC+ vs. left-handers over the past 30 days, and they’ve been merely average from a strikeout standpoint. Ray has the potential to pile up strikeouts in bunches, so he has more upside than his current salary suggests.
Tyler Anderson ($6,700) Los Angeles Angels (-136) vs. Chicago White Sox
Anderson is not a particularly good pitcher, which is reflected in his $6,700 salary. However, he gets one of the best possible matchups Friday vs. the White Sox. They haven’t been quite as bad against lefties as they have vs. righties, but they’re still just 27th in the league in runs per game. They also have the sixth-highest strikeout rate vs. southpaws, so Anderson is a decent punt play at SP2 given his minuscule projected ownership.
Dominate your Best Ball and season-long fantasy football leagues with our brand-new app that’s available in the Apple App Store and on Android!
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected points using THE BAT X belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates:
The Pirates have not been in contention for top stack very often this season. They’re one of the worst offensive teams in the league, ranking dead last in runs per game.
However, the Pirates get a massive park upgrade Friday with their trip to Coors Field. Coors remains the preeminent destination in baseball for batters, with no location grading out better for hitters in terms of Statcast Park Factors. As a result, the Pirates’ 6.5-run implied team total is the top mark of the day by more than a full run.
The Pirates will also get to do battle with Antonio Senzatela, who has been an absolute dumpster fire. He owns a 6.68 ERA this season, and his 6.81 xERA is somehow even worse. It puts him in the first percentile for MLB pitchers, so it doesn’t get much better from a matchup standpoint.
It remains to be seen if the Pirates’ offense is good enough to take advantage, but that is slightly mitigated by the cost. A good offense at Coors Field can set you back quite a bit, but the top Pirates’ stack checks in at $24,100. That’s not exactly free, but they’re cheap enough that they can potentially be paired with someone like Gilbert or Fried. You’ll have to get cheap with your remaining selections, but it’s definitely doable.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Ezequiel Tovar, SS ($3,900) Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Andrew Heaney)
The Rockies aren’t getting the same love from Vegas as the Pirates, but they still have the second-highest implied team total on the slate. They can also benefit from the conditions at Coors Field, and they’ll check in with lower ownership.
Tovar stands out as one of their best options. He’s reasonably priced, expected to hit near the top of the lineup, and is a capable hitter. His numbers this season aren’t quite as good as his marks from last year, but he has been at his best against southpaws. Specifically, he owns a ridiculous 281 wRC+ when facing a lefty at home, albeit over a small sample size.
Tovar ultimately leads all batters in projected Plus/Minus using the blended projection set.
Luis Robert, OF ($3,500) Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels (Tyler Anderson)
Robert has had an awful season, which is a big reason why he’s still playing for the White Sox instead of a contender. His trade stock had plummeted to the point where Chicago decided it was better to pick up his $20M option and look to trade him again next summer.
However, Robert is still extremely dangerous against southpaws. His numbers in that split this season have been outstanding (via Plate IQ):
Anderson is also an exploitable pitcher, owning a 4.54 xERA for the year. He struggles to generate swings and misses, which is the biggest weakness in Robert’s game. Ultimately, it’s a fantastic spot.
Trevor Larnach, OF ($3,500) Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians (Gavin Williams)
If you’re not using Williams as an SP2 for tournaments, Larnach stands out as an elite source of leverage. Williams is going to be extremely popular, and Larnach is currently penciled in as the team’s projected leadoff hitter. He’ll have the splits advantage vs. Williams, and he’s posted a respectable .340 wOBA and .175 ISO against right-handers this season.
Interested in more MLB action? Check out Fanatics Sportsbook and use our Fanatics Sportsbook promo code.
Pictured: Logan Gilbert
Photo Credit: Getty Images
