The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Framber Valdez ($10,500) Houston Astros (-230) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Valdez has been one of the most underappreciated starters in baseball for the past handful of years. He doesn’t possess a blazing fastball or explosive breaking pitches, but he’s still one of the toughest pitchers in the league to score against. He combines an elite groundball rate with just enough strikeout upside, and almost no one is better at keeping the ball in the yard. As a result, his 2.97 ERA is the 15th-best mark among qualified pitchers.
Valdez gets an outstanding matchup Friday vs. the Orioles. While Baltimore was expected to contend for the AL crown this season, they have been massively disappointing. Their offense has been a big culprit. They’re merely 21st in the league in runs per game, and their biggest struggles have come vs. southpaws. They’re 21st in wRC+ in that split, and they also boast the ninth-highest strikeout rate.
Valdez has the top Vegas data on Friday’s slate. He’s the largest favorite of the day, while the Orioles are implied for a slate-low 3.1 runs. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.43 (per the Trends tool).
While Valdez might not be an elite strikeout arm – his 24.4% strikeout rate puts him in the 66th percentile – he also leads the slate with a 6.73 K Prediction. Add in a reasonable $10,500 salary, and he’s the clear top choice at SP1 for cash games.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Jack Perkins ($5,900) Athletics (-102) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Targeting a pitcher in Sacramento is always a risky proposition. Sutter Health Park has been one of the most hitter-friendly venues in baseball this season, particularly from a home run standpoint. The Angels have plenty of guys in their lineup who are capable of going deep, so it’s far from an ideal spot.
That said, Perkins stands out as an outstanding value in our MLB Models. He leads all pitchers in projected Plus/Minus using THE BAT X projections, and he’s coming off a strong fantasy start in his last outing. He pitched six innings and racked up 19.1 DraftKings points, and that kind of production definitely plays at just $5,900.
Perkins has pitched to a 4.08 ERA across 28.2 innings at the MLB level this season. However, that doesn’t tell the full story. Perkins’ underlying metrics have been phenomenal. He owns a 2.60 xERA with some of the best batted-ball data in the league. He’s also done a solid job generating swings and misses, so he’s a solid regression candidate moving forward.
While the Angels have a dangerous lineup, they’re also exploitable from a strikeout standpoint. They have the second-highest strikeout rate against right-handers this season, giving Perkins more upside than usual.
Ultimately, Perkins is simply far too cheap at his current price tag. He provides a reasonable floor and an excellent ceiling, making him a viable option in all formats. He also helps you get to some of the more expensive bats on the slate, which is vital on a day that features Coors Field.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Jacob deGrom ($10,300) Texas Rangers (-110) at Toronto Blue Jays
In a vacuum, deGrom is probably the best pitcher who will get the ball on Friday. However, while Valdez gets an outstanding matchup vs. the Orioles, deGrom has to go on the road vs. the Blue Jays. He’s getting far less respect from Vegas in that spot, making him a riskier option. That said, deGrom is still an elite pitcher, so he’s capable of finding success against anyone. This is an opportunity to get him at far lower ownership than usual, and he’s also priced at a slight discount.
Lucas Giolito ($8,500) Boston Red Sox (-166) vs. Miami Marlins
Giolito has been one of the “luckiest” pitchers in baseball this season, with his ERA roughly 1.5 runs lower than his xERA. That said, his luck doesn’t figure to run out vs. the Marlins. Miami isn’t as poor offensively as they’ve been in years past, but Giolito’s 3.8 opponent implied team total is tied with deGrom for the second-lowest of the day. He was done in by six walks in his last outing, so as long as he can limit the free passes on Friday, he should be able to bounce back.
Sean Manaea ($7,900) New York Mets (-122) vs. Seattle Mariners
The Mets have been nothing short of a disaster recently, so I don’t blame you if you want nothing to do with them. However, Manaea has pitched reasonably well since returning from injury. He owns a 3.44 xERA, and he’s managed 30 punchouts in just 27.0 innings. The Mariners have the fourth-highest strikeout rate against southpaws this season, giving Manaea a nice ceiling at $7,900.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected points using THE BAT X belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
No real surprises here. The Diamondbacks are currently playing at Coors Field, and they lead the way from a projections standpoint. Their offense is currently implied for a whopping 7.0 runs, and no other team is above 5.3. That gives them the top ceiling of the day by a pretty wide margin.
Not only that, the Diamondbacks also draw a juicy matchup vs. Tanner Gordon. He has been absolutely rocked through seven starts this season, pitching to an 8.94 ERA. He’s probably not that bad in reality, but his 5.98 xERA still puts him in the third percentile.
The Diamondbacks traded away two of their big bats before the deadline, shipping both Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor to the Mariners. However, they still have plenty of guys capable of doing damage. Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte are among the best in the game at their respective positions, while Geraldo Perdomo has been fantastic against right-handers this season (via Plate IQ):
The only real downside here is the price tag. The top Diamondbacks’ stack will set you back $27,700, which is very expensive. It makes using Valdez or deGrom impossible, and you’ll have to use someone like Perkins at SP2. That’s going to make finding a unique lineup difficult, so be cognizant of that when making your selections.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Joc Pederson, OF ($2,300) Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays (Chris Bassitt)
It has been a bit of a lost season for Pederson. His numbers are way down this season, including a paltry four homers in just 160 at-bats. His batted-ball data doesn’t provide a lot of reason for optimism, so it’s easy to see why he’s down to $2,300.
Still, Pederson has a long track record of being able to hit for power, and he’s projected to occupy the cleanup spot in the Rangers’ lineup. He’ll also be on the positive side of his splits vs. Chris Bassitt, who has been roughed up since the All-Star break. He has an ERA near six over that stretch, so Pederson stands out as a strong buy-low option in this matchup. He ultimately ranks second on the slate in projected Plus/Minus using the blended projection set.
Ezequiel Tovar, SS ($3,900) Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Brandon Pfaadt)
As usual, the Rockies figure to garner far less ownership than their opponents on Friday. However, they still have the potential to take advantage of Coors in the same way. Their lineup isn’t particularly talented overall, but they’re capable of erupting on any given slate.
That feels particularly true vs. Pfaadt. He’s a dreadful pitcher, owning a 5.94 xERA so far this season. He ranks in the fifth percentile for hard-hit rate and seventh percentile for barrel rate, which is a recipe for disaster at Coors.
Tovar has also been a demon when playing at home this season. He owns a 159 wRC+ in that split this season, while his OPS is over 1.000. He doesn’t bring huge power to the table, but he did manage 26 homers across 157 games last year. He’s ultimately too cheap at $3,900.
Adrian Del Castillo, C ($4,200) Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies (Tanner Gordon)
Del Castillo didn’t make the cut for the top Diamondbacks’ stack on Friday, but he’s arguably one of their most valuable options on this slate. For starters, he has catcher eligibility, which is always one of the toughest spots to fill. He’s also affordable at $4,200, and he ranks third in our blended projection set in projected Plus/Minus.
Del Castillo can also hit. He hasn’t hit a ton at the MLB level this year, but he had a 146 wRC+ in limited MLB action last year. He had an identical 146 wRC+ in the minors this season, and he entered the year as a top 50 prospect per FanGraphs. The bat should heat up eventually, and this is an elite spot for it to happen.
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Pictured: Framber Valdez
Photo Credit: Imagn
