The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday’s main slate features 13 games starting at 7:05 pm ET. We’ll be using Bales Player Model to highlight some of the top options to consider.
Pitchers
The four pitchers projected to score the most fantasy points today in our Player Models are:
- Max Scherzer (R)
- Gerritt Cole (R)
- Carlos Rodon (L)
- Aaron Nola (R)
Max Scherzer is at the top of a pitching slate with tons of good options. He has a 16.1% swinging-strike rate, 12 K/9, 1.86 BB/9, 1.09 HR/9 and 2.85.FIP He boasts a Consistency Rating of 79% (tops on the slate) and 80% over the last month. The Vegas Dashboard has the Padres implied for a slate-low 2.9 runs. Although he is the highest-priced pitcher on the slate at $10,400, he has one of the higher Bargain Ratings at 85%. In four games against the Padres this season, Scherzer has put up 3.46, 19.55, 38.86, and 39.4 DraftKings points.
Gerrit Cole is $300 cheaper than Scherzer but has a similar floor and ceiling projection. Cole sports a 14.7% swinging-strike rate, 12.17 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 1.13 HR/9 and 2.82 FIP. Cole and Scherzer are fantasy twins. The only difference is the Consistency Rating of 50% on the season. The matchup is a tough one as the Blue Jays are 30th in strikeouts and third in ISO against right-handed pitching, so I’d side with Scherzer over Cole. In four games against Toronto, Cole has put up 19.28, 29.1, 23 and 4.06 DraftKings points.
Carlos Rodón is the third and last pitcher priced above $10,000. He has a Bargain Rating of 52% but he’s sporting similar numbers to Scherzer and Cole. The swinging-strike rate is 15%, K/8 is 12.76, BB/9 is 2.4, HR/9 is 0.92, and FIP is 2.63. He faces the Reds, who are 11th in strikeouts and 24th in ISO against left-handed pitching. The Vegas Dashboard has the Reds’ implied for only 3.5 runs.
Aaron Nola has a Consistency Rating of 54% on the season and the Bargain Rating is only 37%, priced at $9,500. He has a 12.7% swinging-strike rate, 11.28 K/9, 1.91 BB/9, 1.34 HR/9, and 3.38 FIP. The Braves are ninth in strikeouts and fourth in ISO against right-handed pitching. The Vegas Dashboard has them implied for 4.3 runs. In four starts against Atlanta this season, Nola has put up 18.35, 18.35, 11.85, and 37.11 DraftKings points.
Value Play
The numbers aren’t overly impressive for Michael Pineda. The swinging-strike rate is 10.5%, K/9 is 7.21, HR/9 is 1.48 and FIP is 4.33. He’s priced at $6,100, though, and has a Bargain Rating of 89%. Why? Because he gets to face the Tigers, who are second in strikeouts and 18th in ISO against right-handed pitching. Pineda faced them back in late July and went six innings, allowed two earned runs, and struck out six for 18.5 DraftKings points.
Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
The top projected stack is Boston. A five-player Red Sox stack will cost $24.2K on DraftKings with a projection of 48.3 points.
- Rafael Devers (L)
- Xander Bogaerts (R)
- Enrique Hernández (R)
- J.D. Martinez (R)
- Hunter Renfroe (R)
The Red Sox are implied for 5.9 runs. They get to face Baltimore pitching with Zac Lowther (L) starting and a bullpen that allows the third-highest FIP and HR/9. Lowther has pitched 24 2/3 innings this season and allowed a 5.75 FIP and 1.82 HR/9. His big bugaboo is the 4.74 BB/9. In terms of splits, he strikes out more lefties but has a higher HR/9 and FIP against them. The sample size is only four innings, though. Against righties, the FIP is 5.68 while the HR/9 is 1.74.
Rafael Devers has much more power against righties (.328 ISO) than against lefties (.134 ISO). He’s still a more than competent hitter against lefties and bats in the heart of the lineup.
Xander Bogaerts bats cleanup for the Red Sox. Like Devers, he has more power against righties than lefties and strikes out more against them. That said, the slash is still .288/.373/.452.
Enrique Hernández will likely bat leadoff. He’s been known as a lefty masher throughout his career and this season is no different. The slash is .261/.359/.484 with a .223 ISO.
J.D. Martinez also has more power against righties than lefties. That said, the slash is a more-than-respectable .276/.339/.474 with a .199 ISO.
Hunter Renfroe smashes both righties and lefties as the ISO is above .225 against both. He’s a much better hitter against left-handed pitching, though. The walk rate is 7% higher, the strikeout rate is 3% lower, and the slash is .283/.372/.520 compared to .254/.291/.485 against righties.
Other Hitters
Chris Taylor strikes out a lot (30.7% against left-handed pitching) but has a .295/.356/.530 slash against them with a .235 ISO. He will likely bat toward the bottom of the lineup but he does get to face Ryan Weathers, who has a 5.89 FIP and 2.14 HR/9 against righties. The Dodgers are implied for 5.2 runs.
Byron Buxton has 16 home runs and eight stolen bases in 231 plate appearances. Against right-handed pitching, the slash is .281/.338/.612 with a .331 ISO. Casey Mize has been very tough against righties, so the matchup isn’t ideal. The HR/9 is only 0.79 and the FIP is 3.71 against righties. That said, Buxton has multiple paths to fantasy goodies, the Consistency Rating is 52% over the last month, and he has one of the highest SLG numbers on the slate. The Tigers’ bullpen also has the seventh-highest FIP.
Trea Turner has mashed left-handed pitching this season. The slash is .384/.431/.658 with a .274 ISO. Turner will likely bat third and, like Buxton, can score fantasy goodies in a variety of ways. On the season, he has 25 home runs, 100 runs, 67 RBI, and 32 stolen bases. The strikeout rate is only 17.1%.
Value Play
Brandon Nimmo will likely bat leadoff and is priced at $3,300. Against right-handed pitching, he sports a .285/.386/.430 slash with a .145 ISO. He has a little stolen base upside as he has five on the season in 364 plate appearances. Elieser Hernandez is on the mound for the Marlins and he’s had horrific struggles against left-handed bats. The K/9 is 7.61, BB/9 is 4.18, HR/9 is 3.8 and FIP is 8.48.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Photo Credit: Meg Oliphant/Getty Images
Pictured: Max Scherzer
