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MLB DFS 4/23/16 Slate Breakdown

Let’s get to it.

Pitchers

Carlos Rodon, CWS

Rodon actually doesn’t lead in any particular category, but he is ranked in the top five in all categories that matter — SO/9, Pro Trends, batted ball distance, exit velocity, and hard hit percentage. Given the Rangers strikeout percentage of 26 percent, Rodon is an elite cash play despite his 1.48 WHIP.

Hector Santiago, LAA

The Mariners projected SO/AB stands at a minuscule .211, but Santiago’s line drive percentage is tied for lowest among starting pitchers. Forget about his rather high HR/9 (1.46, fourth-highest tonight) and instead focus on Seattle’s .287Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) vs. LHP. Note his hard hit percentage of 19 percent.

Juan Nicasio, PIT

Nicasio is more of a tournament play. His slate-high WHIP of 1.68 is accompanied by a 10.8 SO/9. He’s projected to allow a whopping 4.8 runs, but his batted ball distance (189 feet) and exit velocity (88) over his last two starts both suggest, at the least, a perceivable floor. Allowing the second-fewest HR/9 over the last 12 months, Nicasio’s 97 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings makes him a value.

Pitchers to Exploit

Anibal Sanchez, DET

We’ll discuss a few key players when talking positions specifically. For now, just know that Sanchez’s 1.6 HR/9 is the highest in this slate. His hard hit percentage of 41 percent also sits atop his position.

Kris Medlen, KC

Medlen’s batted ball distance falls into the bottom-three among pitchers. Now slated to oppose a Baltimore lineup with a projected wOBA of .296, all bets are off for right-handed hitters — the wind in Kansas City is blowing out to left field at 11 MPH, which bodes well for Joey Rickard, Manny Machado, and Adam Jones (all right-handed batters) in the Orioles lineup.

C

Francisco Cervelli, PIT

I wouldn’t bank on Cervelli being used as the third batter in Pittsburgh’s lineup again, but, despite his negative differentials vs. RHP, his exit velocity remains comparable to those of Yasmani Grandal and Wellington Castillo. If batting third rather than fifth, he’s a fine option for tournaments yet again tonight.

1B

Ryan Howard, PHI

Note Howard’s positive wOBA and Isolated Power (ISO) Differentials of .145/.116. Still averaging a top-ten exit velocity and batted ball distance among first basemen, Howard remains an absolute steal at FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 91 percent.

Jose Abreu, CWS

Colby Lewis has a slate-high fly ball percentage. Abreu hasn’t exactly been connecting with the ball as of late — his batted ball distance is less than 200 feet this season — but his .518 slugging vs. RHP is still respectable enough to warrant tournament exposure.

Carlos Santana, CLE

Santana’s FB% is the highest among first basemen with double-digit starts. He wasn’t expected to bat leadoff for the long term, but then again, he wasn’t expected to hit a homerun in that role, either. He’s a tournament option only due to the (potential) opportunity cost.

2B

Jason Kipnis, CLE

Kipnis is three for 20 over his last five games, but that means nothing in tournaments. His batted ball distance of 234 feet suggests a turnaround sooner than later, especially against the aforementioned Anibal Sanchez.

Scooter Gennett, MIL

Gennett is batting in the heart of a lineup projected to score 4.7 runs. With an exit velocity in the top three at his position, his Bargain Rating of 87 percent at FanDuel is all too good to pass up.

3B

Jake Lamb, ARI

With a righty on the mound, Lamb (rather than Brandon Drury) will likely return to second in Arizona’s batting order. Note his wOBA Differential of .075 against said handedness.

Matt Carpenter, STL

Slugging .516 as a leadoff hitter for the Cardinals, Carpenter is a steal at DraftKings where he has a Bargain Rating of 96 percent. His batted ball distance and exit velocity make him a top-three third baseman.

SS

Marcus Semien, OAK

The fact that he continues to hit in the ninth spot isn’t all too appealing, but Semien’s positive Differentials vs. LHP are certainly a way to gain unique exposure towards this game and the A’s as a whole. In addition to having a slugging percentage of .545 against said handedness, Semien also has a Bargain Rating of 97 percent at FanDuel.

Corey Seager, LAD

If there were a Plays of the Day piece on weekends, Seager would arguably be the cover image tonight. Slated to bat second for a Dodgers team projected to score the most runs, Seager has wOBA and ISO Differentials of .088/.080 that make him ideal for cash games. The wind at Coors Field is also blowing out to right field at 12 MPH, and Seager (of course) bats left-handed.

OF

Bryce Harper, WSH

Harper is an obvious choice anytime he opposes right-handed pitching, and right now Phil Hughes has a -5.7 MPH Velocity Differential. Hughes is also allowing the second-highest HR/9 in this slate.

Colby Rasmus, HOU

Both Rasmus’ exit velocity and batted ball distance are the highest among outfielders with at least 10 starts. With a whopping 13 Pro Trends, Rasmus is easily one of the more valuable (and cash-eligible) players in this entire slate.

Jarrod Dyson, KC

Although batting ninth for Kansas City, Dyson has wOBA and ISO Differentials of .100/.089. He’s a unique way to have exposure towards the Royals. Even if Dyson isn’t like to hit a home run, Dyson does have .314 stolen bases per game, highest among outfielders.

Billy Burns, OAK

Expected to continue leading off against lefties, Burns need only reach base in order to accumulate at least one steal on any given night. That’s where his wOBA Differential of .028 should come in handy.

Weather Watch

Dodgers-Rockies has the highest chance of rain, but even so it’s not all THAT concerning. I would expect more cloudy skies than actual rain. In other words, fear not.

Good luck!

Let’s get to it.

Pitchers

Carlos Rodon, CWS

Rodon actually doesn’t lead in any particular category, but he is ranked in the top five in all categories that matter — SO/9, Pro Trends, batted ball distance, exit velocity, and hard hit percentage. Given the Rangers strikeout percentage of 26 percent, Rodon is an elite cash play despite his 1.48 WHIP.

Hector Santiago, LAA

The Mariners projected SO/AB stands at a minuscule .211, but Santiago’s line drive percentage is tied for lowest among starting pitchers. Forget about his rather high HR/9 (1.46, fourth-highest tonight) and instead focus on Seattle’s .287Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) vs. LHP. Note his hard hit percentage of 19 percent.

Juan Nicasio, PIT

Nicasio is more of a tournament play. His slate-high WHIP of 1.68 is accompanied by a 10.8 SO/9. He’s projected to allow a whopping 4.8 runs, but his batted ball distance (189 feet) and exit velocity (88) over his last two starts both suggest, at the least, a perceivable floor. Allowing the second-fewest HR/9 over the last 12 months, Nicasio’s 97 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings makes him a value.

Pitchers to Exploit

Anibal Sanchez, DET

We’ll discuss a few key players when talking positions specifically. For now, just know that Sanchez’s 1.6 HR/9 is the highest in this slate. His hard hit percentage of 41 percent also sits atop his position.

Kris Medlen, KC

Medlen’s batted ball distance falls into the bottom-three among pitchers. Now slated to oppose a Baltimore lineup with a projected wOBA of .296, all bets are off for right-handed hitters — the wind in Kansas City is blowing out to left field at 11 MPH, which bodes well for Joey Rickard, Manny Machado, and Adam Jones (all right-handed batters) in the Orioles lineup.

C

Francisco Cervelli, PIT

I wouldn’t bank on Cervelli being used as the third batter in Pittsburgh’s lineup again, but, despite his negative differentials vs. RHP, his exit velocity remains comparable to those of Yasmani Grandal and Wellington Castillo. If batting third rather than fifth, he’s a fine option for tournaments yet again tonight.

1B

Ryan Howard, PHI

Note Howard’s positive wOBA and Isolated Power (ISO) Differentials of .145/.116. Still averaging a top-ten exit velocity and batted ball distance among first basemen, Howard remains an absolute steal at FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 91 percent.

Jose Abreu, CWS

Colby Lewis has a slate-high fly ball percentage. Abreu hasn’t exactly been connecting with the ball as of late — his batted ball distance is less than 200 feet this season — but his .518 slugging vs. RHP is still respectable enough to warrant tournament exposure.

Carlos Santana, CLE

Santana’s FB% is the highest among first basemen with double-digit starts. He wasn’t expected to bat leadoff for the long term, but then again, he wasn’t expected to hit a homerun in that role, either. He’s a tournament option only due to the (potential) opportunity cost.

2B

Jason Kipnis, CLE

Kipnis is three for 20 over his last five games, but that means nothing in tournaments. His batted ball distance of 234 feet suggests a turnaround sooner than later, especially against the aforementioned Anibal Sanchez.

Scooter Gennett, MIL

Gennett is batting in the heart of a lineup projected to score 4.7 runs. With an exit velocity in the top three at his position, his Bargain Rating of 87 percent at FanDuel is all too good to pass up.

3B

Jake Lamb, ARI

With a righty on the mound, Lamb (rather than Brandon Drury) will likely return to second in Arizona’s batting order. Note his wOBA Differential of .075 against said handedness.

Matt Carpenter, STL

Slugging .516 as a leadoff hitter for the Cardinals, Carpenter is a steal at DraftKings where he has a Bargain Rating of 96 percent. His batted ball distance and exit velocity make him a top-three third baseman.

SS

Marcus Semien, OAK

The fact that he continues to hit in the ninth spot isn’t all too appealing, but Semien’s positive Differentials vs. LHP are certainly a way to gain unique exposure towards this game and the A’s as a whole. In addition to having a slugging percentage of .545 against said handedness, Semien also has a Bargain Rating of 97 percent at FanDuel.

Corey Seager, LAD

If there were a Plays of the Day piece on weekends, Seager would arguably be the cover image tonight. Slated to bat second for a Dodgers team projected to score the most runs, Seager has wOBA and ISO Differentials of .088/.080 that make him ideal for cash games. The wind at Coors Field is also blowing out to right field at 12 MPH, and Seager (of course) bats left-handed.

OF

Bryce Harper, WSH

Harper is an obvious choice anytime he opposes right-handed pitching, and right now Phil Hughes has a -5.7 MPH Velocity Differential. Hughes is also allowing the second-highest HR/9 in this slate.

Colby Rasmus, HOU

Both Rasmus’ exit velocity and batted ball distance are the highest among outfielders with at least 10 starts. With a whopping 13 Pro Trends, Rasmus is easily one of the more valuable (and cash-eligible) players in this entire slate.

Jarrod Dyson, KC

Although batting ninth for Kansas City, Dyson has wOBA and ISO Differentials of .100/.089. He’s a unique way to have exposure towards the Royals. Even if Dyson isn’t like to hit a home run, Dyson does have .314 stolen bases per game, highest among outfielders.

Billy Burns, OAK

Expected to continue leading off against lefties, Burns need only reach base in order to accumulate at least one steal on any given night. That’s where his wOBA Differential of .028 should come in handy.

Weather Watch

Dodgers-Rockies has the highest chance of rain, but even so it’s not all THAT concerning. I would expect more cloudy skies than actual rain. In other words, fear not.

Good luck!