The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 14-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
- Aaron Nola (R) $12,000, PHI vs LAD – K. Maeda
- Kenta Maeda (R) $11,300, LAD @ PHI – A. Nola
- Gerrit Cole (R) $10,900, HOU @ COL – T. Anderson
- James Paxton (L) $10,200, SEA vs SF – A. Suarez
- Jose Berrios (R) $10,000, MIN @ TOR – R. Borucki
Nola and Maeda are squaring off against each other in a matchup of the highest-priced pitchers on today’s slate. As a result, both pitchers have mediocre moneyline odds: Maeda is a -112 favorite; Nola is a +104 underdog. That said, their opponent implied team totals are still impressive, with Maeda’s mark of 3.7 ranking second and Nola’s mark of 3.9 tied for third. Both pitchers also enter today’s contest in good recent form, with each owning a distance differential of at least -12 feet over the past 15 days.
What really separates these pitchers is their strikeout upside. Maeda has an elite matchup against the Phillies, whose projected lineup has posted a 27.6% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. His resulting K Prediction of 9.7 is the top mark on the slate, and pitchers with comparable K Predictions and distance differentials have historically posted a dominant Plus/Minus of +5.55 and a Consistency Rating of 75.2% on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
Nola’s K Prediction of 7.2 trails Maeda’s by a significant margin, but it still ranks fifth on today’s slate. He should command lower ownership than Maeda, which does give him some appeal for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Cole is the most interesting option on today’s slate. He’s been dominant for most of the season, compiling a 2.52 ERA and 12.41 K/9, but he’s taking the mound against the Rockies at Coors Field. Historically, comparably priced pitchers have averaged an abysmal -4.83 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. It could be tempting to consider rostering Cole as a contrarian GPP option, but his historical comps have also posted an average ownership of 16.6% and an Upside Rating of 0%.
Paxton put together an impressive first half of the season, but his advanced numbers suggest he could be due for even bigger things following the All-Star Break. He leads all pitchers on today’s slate in opponent implied team total (3.2 runs), while his moneyline odds (-184) rank second. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.08 on FanDuel. His K Prediction of 7.5 also ranks fourth on the slate. He’ll likely be today’s highest-owned pitcher.
Berrios could be an interesting pivot on DraftKings, where his Bargain Rating of 63% is the top mark among the stud pitchers. He’s been excellent over his past 12 starts, owning a 3.21 ERA and a 9.63 K/9; he’s also averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.64 on DraftKings over that time frame. His salary has actually decreased by $1,800 on DraftKings over the past month, so this could be a nice opportunity to buy low on him.
Values
If you’re looking to spend way down at pitcher on DraftKings, it’s hard to look past Eric Lauer at just $4,000 vs. the New York Mets. They’ve been the worst team in the league against left-handers this season, ranking dead last in both wOBA and wRC+, and they’ve averaged the sixth-fewest runs per game overall. They also own the worst strikeout rate vs. left-handers, so Lauer has significant upside as well. Overall, left-handed pitchers have averaged a ridiculous Plus/Minus of +7.09 when facing the Mets, and that number jumps to +9.64 when facing them on the road. This could be the best spot for Lauer all season.
Felix Pena is another affordable option, and, unlike Lauer, he’s actually shown some fantasy viability throughout his young career. He’s posted a K/9 of 11.69 over the past 12 months and has averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.08 on DraftKings over his past four starts. He has a K Prediction of 8.4 and moneyline odds of -181 against the Chicago White Sox, and similarly priced pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.04 on DraftKings. You can conceivably pair Pena and Lauer together, which leaves you an average of more than $5,000 for your remaining roster spots.
Zack Wheeler is opposing Lauer at Citi Field and has finally started to live up to his massive potential in his fourth season in the big leagues. Only two pitchers are generating soft contact on a higher percentage of balls in play this season, and he’s also posted a strong K/9 of 8.89. He could be in line for a big second half.
He has an elite matchup today vs. the Padres, whose projected lineup has struggled to a .286 wOBA and 26.9% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. Wheeler has also limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 195 feet and hard-hit rate of just 14%, both of which represent decreases compared to his 12-month averages.
Fastballs
Masahiro Tanaka: He’s a massive -198 favorite and has posted a K/9 of 9.94 over the past 12 months. He has a solid matchup vs. the Tampa Bay Rays, who have a bottom-10 offense this season in terms of runs per game. Pitching in Tampa also rewards Tanaka with a Park Factor of 77, which is the fourth-highest mark on the slate.
Kyle Hendricks: He doesn’t possess the same strikeout upside as some of the top pitchers on the slate, but he does enter today’s contest in good recent form. He’s limited his past three opponents to an average distance of just 191 feet, which represents a decrease of eight feet compared to his 12-month average.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Oakland Athletics:
- Marcus Semien (R)
- Chad Pinder (R)
- Jed Lowrie (S)
- Khris Davis (R)
- Stephen Piscotty (R)
Total Salary: $21,800
Oakland’s implied team total of 5.3 runs is tied for the third-highest mark on the slate for today’s contest vs. the Rangers. They’re facing left-hander Mike Minor, who has pitched to a 4.89 ERA this season. He was roughed up on the road in his last outing, allowing six runs over 2.2 innings against the offensively challenged Baltimore Orioles. The A’s have been pretty good against left-handers this season, owning the ninth-highest wRC+.
The A’s also enter today’s contest in strong recent form, with only Lowrie failing to post a positive distance differential over the past 15 days among the stacked batters. Davis in particular has crushed the baseball, owning a distance differential of +33 feet and a hard hit differential of +12 percentage points, and he’s posted strong marks in wOBA and ISO against left-handers over the past 12 months.
Coors Field will be easy to stack today considering the plethora of value pitching options available, and the top four-man FanDuel stack at Coors on today’s slate belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
- Charlie Blackmon (L)
- Gerardo Parra (L)
- Nolan Arenado (R)
- Trevor Story (R)
Total Salary: $16,300
The Rockies are very rarely a contrarian option when playing at Coors, but that will likely be the case today. Even though people might not roster Cole at pitcher, they’re also unlikely to stack against him. The Rockies’ implied team total of 4.5 runs is one of the lower marks on the slate, but batters with a top-five lineup spot have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.08 at Coors with a comparable implied team total.
Arenado and Story are on the negative side of their batting splits against Cole, but both batters have posted outstanding Statcast marks over their past nine games. Both batters have posted a distance differential of at least +30 feet and a hard-hit differential of at least +10 percentage points, and factoring that into the above trend increases the average Plus/Minus to +6.00.
Other Batters
Matt Carpenter has been on a serious heater lately, posting an average Plus/Minus of +12.01 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. His Statcast data over that time frame suggests that production is no fluke: He’s averaged a ridiculous distance of 292 feet, exit velocity of 100 mph and hard-hit rate of 62%. He gets a nice park upgrade today at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati and owns a Bargain Rating of 93% on FanDuel.
Mike Trout is facing White Sox left-hander Carlos Rodon, and Trout has posted a .440 wOBA against southpaws this season. From a fantasy perspective, it’s led to an average Plus/Minus of +1.26 on DraftKings. He’s the most-expensive batter on the slate at $6,000 but has arguably the highest ceiling.
Virtually no batter in baseball has made consistently harder contact this season than Eugenio Suarez. He enters today’s contest in good recent form, owning a distance differential of +18 feet and hard-hit differential of +18 percentage points over his past 10 games. He’ll be on the positive side of his batting splits against Cardinals left-hander Austin Gomber. Suarez is really appealing on FanDuel, where his $3,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Trevor Story (left) and Nolan Arenado
Photo credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports
