The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and Predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a split slate: There’s a six-game early slate starting at 4:05 p.m. ET and a seven-game main slate starting at 7:15 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slates are loaded with pitching talent, but three stand out above the rest on FanDuel:
Justin Verlander is the priciest option of the group at $12,200 and has a nice matchup vs. the Tampa Bay Rays. They’ve managed the eighth-lowest wOBA this season against right-handed pitchers, and their implied team total of 3.0 runs is the lowest of the day. Verlander is also a large -185 favorite, and pitchers with comparable Vegas data have historically been nice values on FanDuel (per the Trends tool):
Additionally, Verlander has substantial strikeout upside. The projected Rays lineup has whiffed in 26.0% of at-bats against right-handers over the past 12 months, and Verlander has averaged a career-high K/9 of 10.77 in 2018. Verlander also has the ability to pitch deep into this ballgame after averaging 117 pitches over his past two starts. He should be a popular option on the early slate.
Jacob deGrom is the other stud on the early slate, and he should be good to go after getting scratched from yesterday’s start. He continues to be one of the most hard-luck pitchers in baseball, somehow owning just five wins despite having an elite 1.69 ERA and 11.19 K/9.
Perhaps his luck will start to change today against the Miami Marlins. They’re averaging the third-fewest runs per game this season, and their projected lineup has struggled to a .282 wOBA over the past 12 months. deGrom also leads all pitchers on the early slate with a K Prediction of 8.2.
The one area where deGrom has struggled recently is his Statcast profile. He’s allowed some unusually loud contact over his past two starts, resulting in an average exit velocity of 94 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 46%, but he’s also been able to limit the damage by inducing ground balls at a 56% clip. If you’re going to give up hard contact, that’s how you want to do it.
Chris Sale headlines the main slate and is in one of the most intriguing spots of the day vs. the New York Yankees. They’re implied for 4.0 runs, which is almost unheard of vs. a pitcher of Sale’s caliber. He’s never faced an opponent implied for at least four runs as a member of the Red Sox. When with the White Sox, he was effective in similar situations:
The reason Sale can overcome subpar Vegas data is his elite strikeout ability: He’s averaged a ridiculous K/9 of 13.25 over the past 12 months. The Yankees can do a lot of damage against left-handed pitching — they own the best wOBA in baseball vs. southpaws in 2018 — but they’ve also shown a tendency to strike out in bunches. Sale’s K Prediction of 8.7 is the top mark among today’s pitchers.
Sale also is in good recent form, limiting his past two opponents to a 191-foot distance, 88-mph exit velocity and a 62% ground-ball rate. Pitchers with similar recent Statcast data and strikeout projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.82 on FanDuel. Even with subpar Vegas data, there’s a lot to like about Sale.
Values
Kenta Maeda leads all pitchers with a Bargain Rating of 97% on FanDuel and appears to be in an elite spot today vs. the Colorado Rockies. He leads all pitchers on the main slate with an opponent implied team total of 3.3 runs, while his moneyline odds of -167 rank second. He’s coming off an absolute gem in his last outing, scoring 58.0 FanDuel points against the Chicago Cubs, and that dominance is reflected in his 15-day/12-month distance differential of -20 feet. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data and distance differentials have been awesome options:
If you factor in a Bargain Rating of at least 95%, the average Plus/Minus increases to +6.64.
Maeda also has nice strikeout upside against the Rockies. He’s averaged a K/9 of 10.59 through his first 13 starts, and the projected Rockies lineup has struck out in 24.5% of at-bats against right-handers over the past 12 months. His resulting K Prediction of 7.7 trails only Sale’s on the main slate.
Felix Hernandez is currently projected for the highest main slate ownership on FanDuel even though he’s been awful this season. He’s tallied a 5.10 ERA and 7.55 K/9 through his first 17 starts and has allowed a hard-hit rate of 46% over the past 15 days.
However, he does have an outstanding matchup today vs. the Kansas City Royals, who have been the most futile offensive team in baseball. Their average of 3.51 runs per game ranks dead last among all 30 teams, and their .287 wOBA against right-handed pitchers ranks 29th. Hernandez is the largest favorite on the slate, and his opponent implied total of 3.4 runs trails only Maeda’s.
The one area that holds Hernandez back is his strikeout upside. The Royals have been stingy with their strikeouts, which could be an issue since Hernandez has struggled to miss bats. His K Prediction of 5.5 is mediocre and could make him a strong fade candidate in guaranteed prize pools given his projected ownership.
Fastballs
Tyler Skaggs: He’s been absolutely dominant over his past four starts, allowing just two earned runs while striking out 30 batters over 27.0 innings. He has a strong matchup vs. the Orioles, who have scored the second-fewest runs per game this season and will likely fly under the radar on the early slate due to the presence of deGrom and Verlander.
Luke Weaver: He was outstanding in 2017, pitching to a 2.93 xFIP and averaging a K/9 of 10.74, but he’s been a disappointment in 2018. However, he did show signs of life in his last start, striking out nine batters over 5.2 innings, which could make him an intriguing option against a Braves team that has been mediocre against right-handers this season.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Oakland A’s:
Their implied total of 4.8 runs is tied for third on the early slate, so their ownership should be modest. They’re taking on Indians right-hander Adam Plutko, who has allowed a dreadful HR/9 of 2.38 over the past 12 months. He hasn’t been much better of late either, with his 15-day marks in distance, exit velocity and hard hit rate all ranking among the worst on the slate. The stacked batters for the A’s are all on the positive sides of their batting splits vs. the right-hander.
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Texas Rangers:
They lead all teams with an implied total of 5.2 runs, while their Team Value Rating of 82 on FanDuel ranks second. That should make them one of the most popular targets on the slate, but stacking them in the above 1-3-5-8 manner should increase your chances of having a contrarian lineup. Interestingly enough, all four batters are on the wrong side of their batting splits because of the lefty-lefty matchup vs. White Sox pitcher Carlos Rodon, but they make up for it with excellent form. All of the stacked batters own positive differentials in distance, exit velocity and hard-hit rate over the past 15 days.
Additional Batters
The White Sox own the second-highest implied total on the main slate, which could make them a popular pivot off the Rangers. Yoan Moncada is expected to occupy the leadoff spot against right-hander Bartolo Colon, and Moncada has averaged a .339 wOBA and .213 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months. He also owns excellent Statcast marks over his past 14 games, posting an average distance of 234 feet, exit velocity of 94 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 48%.
Mike Trout snapped a 14-game home-run drought yesterday by taking David Hess deep in the first inning. He has a nice matchup today against Andrew Cashner, who has a 5.09 FIP through his first 15 starts and leads all batters in Ceiling Projection in our MLB Models.
Joc Pederson leads all batters with a 99% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and is on the positive side of his batting splits against Rockies right-hander German Marquez. The Statcast data from his past nine games is also borderline unfair to pitchers with a 292-foot average distance, 96-mph exit velocity and 66% hard-hit rate. He looks like one of the best bets to go yard on the main slate.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Chris Sale
Photo credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
