The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday has a 15-game main slate starting at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are four pitchers priced above $9,000 today on FanDuel, although one is unlikely to take the mound:
As of Friday morning, it seems unlikely that Boston lefty David Price will suit up tonight, although it’s unclear who his replacement will be. Monitor this situation via our MLB News feed, and check our MLB Lineups page to see his replacement once we get final word.
Alex Wood is coming off his worst start of the year, allowing two home runs and seven earned runs in 4.2 innings against the Atlanta Braves. Still, he’s averaged a ridiculous +11.07 FanDuel Plus/Minus with an 80 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10 games:
You would think because of that last game that he would have concerning recent Statcast data, but that’s not the case: Over his last two outings, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 175 feet, an exit velocity of 85 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 25 percent, and a hard hit rate of 17 percent. If there were ever a time to jump back on the bandwagon and write off a poor performance as an outlier, it might be today with Wood.
He has exceptional Vegas data as well: He’s facing the inept San Francisco Giants, who rank dead last in the league this season with a .293 team wOBA and are currently implied for just 3.0 runs — 0.8 runs less than any other team. Because of the +2.1 run differential between the Dodgers and Giants, Wood is a massive -266 moneyline favorite, and he’s gotten 85 percent of the ML bets as of Friday morning. Pitchers with similar Vegas data have historically been valuable DFS assets, averaging 40.39 FanDuel points and a +6.40 Plus/Minus with a 69.1 percent Consistency Rating (per the MLB Trends tool):
He does have a fairly low 6.9 K Prediction today and could be a worthy fade in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), but he has way too much win equity to fade in cash games.
Wood could be chalky today for the reasons listed above and also because the other two high-priced studs in Dallas Keuchel and Robbie Ray have some concerning blemishes. Keuchel is returning to the rotation after missing eight weeks with a pinched nerve in his neck, and he gets a Detroit team currently implied for 4.4 runs. He seems confident, saying on Wednesday, “I’ve been looking forward to this for a while. I feel great. It’s go time.” But Houston manager A.J. Hinch hinted that he might not see full work: “We’ll be careful with him getting deep into games and stuff like that, and we’ll use the first couple of starts to ramp him up to that.” Given his poor Vegas data and likely pitch count, Keuchel is a fringe GPP option at best in his first start back.
Ray has no such issues, and he’s been pretty good over his last 10 games, posting a +12.12 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 70 percent Consistency Rating during that span:
That said, he doesn’t have great Vegas data today: He’s facing a Cardinals team implied for 4.2 runs, and he’s a slight +110 dog opposing Michael Wacha. What’s even worse is his recent Statcast data: Over his last two games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 245 feet, an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 44 percent, and a hard hit rate of 41 percent. Granted, those two games were at Chase Field and Great American Ball Park, but the data points are ominous nonetheless. What Ray does have going for him is strikeout upside: His 8.9 K Prediction ranks second in this slate. At only 13-16 percent and five to eight percent ownership on DraftKings and FanDuel, he’s worth some shots in tournaments.
Pro Subscribers can review ownership trends across tournaments of various buy-in levels after lineup lock via our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Values
Danny Salazar returned to Cleveland’s rotation last week after missing two months with shoulder soreness, and he looked incredible, going seven innings and striking out eight batters while allowing just a single hit and no runs. He averaged 96.5 miles per hour on his fastball, and his Statcast data from that game is elite: He allowed a batted ball distance of 166 feet, an exit velocity of 86 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 30 percent, and a hard hit rate of 30 percent. He’s in another great spot today against a White Sox team that has struggled against right-handed pitchers this season, ranking 28th in the league with a .304 splits-adjusted team wOBA. They’ve averaged a 22.3 percent strikeout rate against righties, and Salazar has a slate-high 9.2 K Prediction today. Pitchers with similar marks have been highly-owned on DraftKings historically but also quite consistent:
I’ve mentioned this over the last couple breakdowns, and it bears repeating. The White Sox have been an extreme-splits team this season, crushing left-handed pitchers and struggling against righties. But since the All-Star break that has mysteriously reversed:
That said, if Salazar is rolling like he was last week, it doesn’t matter which side of his body he’s using. At his low price points of $9,500 and $8,200 on DraftKings and FanDuel, he should be one of the chalkiest players of the night.
Chad Kuhl isn’t a great pitcher by any means — he owns a poor 1.445 past-year WHIP — but he’s alive and in San Diego. The Padres are a DFS pitcher’s dream, as they rank 28th in the league with a .301 team wOBA but also second with a massive 25.4 percent strikeout rate. They’ve been the most generous team to opposing FanDuel pitchers this season; those players have averaged a league-high 32.82 fantasy points and a +4.03 Plus/Minus. One interesting trend, however, is that Petco Park, despite being one of the best pitcher’s parks in the league, has seen only 7.9 percent average ownership from visiting pitchers this season:
That will likely be the case again today: Despite being the third-highest rated pitcher in the Bales Model, Kuhl’s projected for just five to eight percent ownership on FanDuel.
Fastballs
Jaime Garcia: He’s making his first start for the Twins after being traded, and he gets the benefit of a pitcher’s park in Oakland tonight. He’s been a little up and down of late, but he has nice recent Statcast data: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 182 feet, an exit velocity of 87 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 22 percent, and a hard hit rate of 32 percent.
Jose Quintana: He’s gone for seven, 12, and 10 strikeouts over his last three games, and tonight he faces a Brewers team that ranks first in the league in 2017 with a huge 25.5 percent strikeout rate. He’s at a weird price point on both sites, but he’s projected for low ownership and has big K upside.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The highest-rated five-man DraftKings stack (per player ratings in the Bales Model) currently belongs to the Baltimore Orioles:
The Orioles are currently implied for 5.4 runs — tied for the third-highest mark in the slate — and they have a huge 85 Weather Rating visiting Globe Life Park in Arlington, where it’s projected to be a balmy 97 degrees at first pitch. They face Andrew Cashner, who has a terrible 1.533 past-year WHIP, and several of their batters are smashing the ball of late. Chris Davis is the highest-rated batter in the Bales Model today, and he’s on the positive side of his splits against a righty, against whom he’s posted a .281 ISO over the past year. His recent Statcast data is strong: Over his last 11 contests, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 240 feet, an exit velocity of 96 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 58 percent.
We’ve recently added tools for FantasyDraft in Models, and I have a piece on FantasyDraft scoring, rosters, and strategy. FantasyDraft allows six batters in a stack, so let’s take a look at a highly-rated group for today’s main slate:
George Springer remains questionable with left quad discomfort, although the early movement on Houston’s Vegas data might suggest he’ll miss tonight’s game. Despite receiving a whopping 88 percent of moneyline bets so far, the Astros’ implied total has actually dipped 0.3 runs since opening:
Monitor this situation, but Houston likely has high upside no matter what happens. They face Jordan Zimmermann, who owns the second-worst HR/9 allowed rate over the past year at 2.26. He’s been particularly bad lately, allowing 24 hits and 11 runs over his last three games. Over his last two, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 240 feet and a hard hit rate of 42 percent. Houston easily leads the league with a .362 team wOBA; they’re always a candidate for double-digit runs, especially against a poor, struggling pitcher.
Batters
Freddie Freeman is currently projected for only two to four percent ownership on DraftKings despite having one of the largest ISO splits of the day. He has absolutely smashed righties over the past year, as evidenced by his .486 wOBA and .371 ISO, and he’s projected to bat third for a Braves team currently implied for 4.7 runs today. This game does have some weather concerns — there’s a 45 percent chance of precipitation in Philly tonight — but that should also work to keep down Freeman’s ownership even more. He goes up against Jeremy Hellickson, who has allowed a 94 MPH exit velocity and a 46 percent hard hit rate over his last two starts.
Cody Bellinger has a +29 Recent Batted Ball Luck, which indicates he’s been a bit unlucky in terms of fantasy points lately. Looking further into his batted ball data, he’s averaged a distance of 248 feet, an exit velocity of 96 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 50 percent, and a hard hit rate of 44 percent over his last 12 games. That typically results in a lot of fantasy points, but that has not been the case:
Some positive regression should come at some point.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
