The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday has a split slate: There are two games in the 2:20 pm ET early slate and 13 games in the 7:05 pm ET main slate.
Pitchers
Studs
Yesterday’s slate was dominated by only one stud in Max Scherzer, who was $3,000 and $2,500 more expensive than any other pitcher on DraftKings and FanDuel. I guessed that he would be higher-owned in the early slate than Chris Sale was on Tuesday (via the MLB Ownership dashboard). . .
. . . and that proved true: Scherzer was 68.1 percent owned in the $33 MLB Fastball on DraftKings. Today’s slate is different, as there are six pitchers all between $9,400 and $10,700 on FanDuel:
In terms of Vegas data, these guys are all incredibly similar:
- Dallas Keuchel at Angels: 3.7 opponent run total, -140 moneyline
- Yu Darvish at Mariners: 3.6 opponent run total, -122 moneyline
- Stephen Strasburg at Phillies: 3.5 opponent run total, -168 moneyline
- Danny Salazar at Royals: 3.6 opponent run total, -158 moneyline
- Chris Archer vs. Blue Jays: 3.5 opponent run total, -137 moneyline
- Michael Fulmer at Athletics: 3.9 opponent run total, +106 moneyline
Again, there’s no clear-cut option and thus ownership levels of these players will be fairly distributed.
Strasburg has the biggest name of the group, and his 8.3 K Prediction is the top mark in the main slate. He missed value for the first time in five starts last game, allowing three earned runs and six hits across seven innings pitched. That wasn’t a disaster by any means, but he was able to muster only two strikeouts after going for double digits in his prior game. Given the performance last game, his Statcast data is acceptable but not elite: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed an exit velocity of 88 miles per hour and a hard hit rate of 24 percent. He’s the largest favorite today at -168, and FanDuel pitchers with similar moneyline and K Prediction ranges have historically averaged 40.68 FanDuel points, a +5.64 Plus/Minus, and a 64.4 percent Consistency Rating.
When pitchers are comparable, it might be wise to look at the negatives and find players to fade. I like to do this by looking at Statcast data and finding pitchers who haven’t been pitching well, especially ones who might have been lucky of late. We have a new metric this year to help identify these pitchers — Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) — and many of the top guys have some concerning marks:
That said, not all RBBL numbers are the same; pitchers can sometimes allow distance but not hard contact. For example, Strasburg has been a little ‘lucky’ if you compare his recent production to his recent 204-foot batted ball distance, but his 88 MPH exit velocity suggests that overall he’s inducing weak contact. A guy like Archer is much more concerning: He’s been ‘lucky,’ putting up fine fantasy production despite allowing a 229-foot batted ball distance over his last two games. Additionally, his other batted ball marks are even more concerning: Over those two games, he’s allowed an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 58 percent, and a hard hit rate of 46 percent. He has a nice matchup against a Blue Jays team that ranks 27th this season with a .294 team wOBA, but in a slate with a lot of options he might be one to fade in cash games given his concerning recent batted ball data.
One quick note on Keuchel before we move on to some value options: He’s the highest-priced guy on FanDuel, but his salary is warranted given his production in 2017:
He’s averaged a ridiculous +14.45 Plus/Minus on perfect Consistency this season, and his 2017 strikeout rate has improved upon his 12-month 7.769 SO/9. He’s had the best form of these top guys, but his 5.1 K Prediction is considerably lower than any of the other ‘studs.’ It’s fine to roster him during such a hot streak, but note that he could disappoint in comparison to other options if his strikeout rate regresses to the mean.
Values
Kyle Hendricks is in the early slate, but he’s currently one of the top pitchers in the Bales Model for FanDuel, where his low $8,200 price tag comes with a 95 percent Bargain Rating. That’s a little surprising, considering the Yankees have been one of the hottest teams in MLB lately and rank third in 2017 with a .196 team ISO. That said, there are a couple important reasons he could surprise. First, Vegas seems to believe in him, as the Yankees are currently implied for just 3.2 runs. Second, Hendricks owns a massive 8.8 K Prediction — the highest among all pitchers today — because many of the young Yankees batters strike out often. Take standout outfielder Aaron Judge: He has massive power — he owns a .322 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the last year — but he also has a huge .407 SO/AB rate. He’s dominated lately, but he’s had pretty much only two at-bat outcomes: A home run or a strikeout. If Hendricks can avoid the landmines of this roster, there definitely is upside in the affair.
Speaking of boom-or-bust matchups: Francisco Liriano faces a Rays team currently implied for 4.1 runs; Liriano is currently a +126 dog. He’s been a little all over the place this season . . .
. . . but he’s shown double-digit strikeout upside before, and today he gets a Rays team that ranks first in the league this season with a 25.6 percent strikeout rate; Liriano’s 8.1 K Prediction is tied for second in the main slate behind only Strasburg’s. But what makes him really stand out is his Statcast data: Over his last two games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 169 feet, an exit velocity of 87 miles per hour, a fly ball rate of 23 percent, and a hard hit rate of just eight percent. The number of pitchers in our Trends database who have allowed a recent hard hit rate in the single digits is very small; those 51 historical FanDuel pitchers have averaged a 62.7 percent Consistency mark on just 3.3 percent ownership. That sounds like a nice edge.
Fastballs
Kenta Maeda: His 2017 FanDuel Plus/Minus still sits at -5.59, but he did have his first solid outing last game, going for 49.0 FanDuel points and eight strikeouts against the Phillies; he faces a Padres team today currently implied for a slate-low 3.4 runs.
Michael Pineda: He’s on the other side of the Cubs-Yankees affair between two high-powered offenses, although Vegas projects it to be a pitcher’s duel; the Cubs are currently implied for just 3.3 runs, and Pineda owns a high 8.4 K Prediction.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. Since the early slate is so small, we’ll build two stacks for the main slate. Justin Bailey discusses three intriguing stacks in today’s Pro Model Stacks piece, so we’ll instead look for some different stack options.
The Diamondbacks will certainly be one of the most popular teams, as they’re currently implied for a slate-high 5.6 runs at Coors Field. Considering the pitching duel between the Rockies’ German Marquez and Arizona’s Zack Greinke, the Rockies should be lower-owned than their opponent. Charlie Blackmon is tied for the most DraftKings Pro Trends (10) and has been crushing the ball of late, as evidenced by his 94 MPH exit velocity and 47 percent hard hit rate over his last 10 games:
On FanDuel, the highest-rated four-man non-Coors stack belongs to the New York Mets:
They should be somewhat contrarian due to the Coors Field game, and their implied total has actually moved up 0.3 runs already. They face Miami righty Tom Koehler, who has awful recent Statcast data: Over his last two games, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 231 feet, an exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 51 percent. That could be bad news, especially against a guy like Jay Bruce, who owns a .309 ISO against righties and has averaged a ridiculous 248-foot batted ball distance and 96 MPH exit velocity over his last 10 games.
Batters
Ryan Zimmerman has done this over his last 10 games:
And he’ll continue to have high ownership as well. But let’s compare his Statcast data to that of a couple other guys:
- Zimmerman: Last 10 — 257-foot batted ball distance, 98 MPH exit velocity, 54 percent hard hit rate
- Nelson Cruz: Last 9 — 261-foot batted ball distance, 98 MPH exit velocity, 48 percent hard hit rate
- Khris Davis: Last 10 — 276-foot batted ball distance, 98 MPH exit velocity, 50 percent hard hit rate
Davis is in a game with projected brutal weather; the game may not even play. Cruz is projected to bat cleanup (per the MLB Lineups page) for a Mariners team implied for just 3.6 runs against Darvish. Cruz is also on the wrong side of his splits, which means that he’s likely to have low ownership today. And that’s intriguing, because power hitters with negative splits have still managed a nice 33 percent Upside Rating when they’ve owned Statcast data even somewhat close to Cruz’s. I you look at hitters with low run totals, the number dips to 25 percent — and those guys have historically had only three percent ownership. That’s the beauty of the Trends tool: You can test any situation or hypothesis you might have.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
