The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 15-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate is loaded with stud pitchers, with five possessing a salary above $10,000 on DraftKings:
- Max Scherzer (R) $13,900, WAS @ MIA – P. Lopez
- Chris Sale (L) $13,500, BOS vs. MIN – L. Lynn
- Clayton Kershaw (L) $12,800, LAD @ ATL – M. Foltynewicz
- Carlos Carrasco (R) $11,400, CLE @ DET – M. Fiers
- Zack Greinke (R) $10,700, ARI @ SD – L. Perdomo
Scherzer has an elite matchup today vs. the Miami Marlins, whose projected lineup has posted a .291 wOBA and 27.7% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. Scherzer’s resulting data points are impressive: 2.9 opponent implied team total, -241 moneyline odds, and 9.5 K Prediction. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in all three categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.24 and a Consistency Rating of 67.9% on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
That said, there are a few concerns with Scherzer. He has surprisingly struggled against the Marlins as a member of the Nationals, owning an average Plus/Minus of -1.08 over 15 starts. That includes two starts in 2018 in which he posted an abysmal Plus/Minus of -11.52 at average ownership of 43.8%. Fifteen starts isn’t exactly a small sample size, so the Marlins may just have his number for some odd reason. He’s also allowed an average distance of 233 feet over his past two starts, which represents an increase of +20 feet compared to his 12-month average.
Sale has a tougher matchup against the Minnesota Twins but does benefit from the Red Sox’s massive implied team total of 5.7 runs. He’s the largest favorite on the slate at -340, and pitchers with comparable moneyline odds have averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.91 and a Consistency Rating of 75.0% on FanDuel. His opponent-implied team total of 2.9 runs is also tied with Scherzer’s for the top mark on the slate. He’s probably the safest stud option for cash games, although his K Prediction of 8.6 gives him slightly less upside than Scherzer for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
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Kershaw is one of the best pitchers in the history of baseball but he could be a contrarian option on today’s slate. He has the lowest K Prediction among the stud tier at 6.9, and his Vegas data is not exactly Kershaw-like: 3.6 opponent implied team total and -149 moneyline odds.
What Kershaw does have going for him is excellent recent Statcast data. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of just 181 feet, which represents a decrease of -13 feet compared to his 12-month average. Pitchers with a comparable price tag and distance differential have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.19 on DraftKings.
Carrasco is an intriguing option today vs. the Detroit Tigers, who have been abysmal this season on offense. They rank dead last in wRC+ and have the second-worst wOBA against right-handed pitchers; their average of 3.93 runs per game ranks in the bottom five. Carrasco has struggled a bit this season but has maintained a strong K/9 of 9.88, giving him plenty of upside as a -195 favorite.
That said, his Statcast data from his most recent start is pretty terrifying. He allowed hard contact on 62% of balls in play, which represents an increase of +29 percentage points compared to his 12-month average. He still makes sense as a contrarian option for GPPs – he’s projected for just 9% to 12% ownership on DraftKings and 5% to 8% ownership on FanDuel – but he seems a little risky for cash games.
Rounding out the stud tier is Greinke, who gets a major park upgrade today vs. the San Diego Padres. His home stadium of Chase Field has been one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball over the summer months, while Petco Park still profiles as a pitcher-friendly venue. His resulting Park Factor of 76 doesn’t jump off the page, but it’s still a massive upgrade. The Padres are also a phenomenal matchup for right-handed pitchers, with their projected lineup owning a splits-adjusted wOBA of .283 and strikeout rate of 26.1% over the past 12 months. He has arguably more upside than anyone outside of Scherzer and possibly Sale on today’s slate.
Values
Considering the volume of studs available on today’s slate, the pickings are predictably slim in the volume tier. One option who stands out on DraftKings is Luke Weaver at just $6,400 vs. the Chicago Cubs. He was roughed up by the Cubbies in his last outing, allowing seven hits and five walks over just four innings pitched, but he seems due for positive regression if he can keep the walks in check. He limited the Cubs to an average distance of 165 feet, exit velocity of 87 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 25% in their last meeting, resulting in a Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) score of +76 on DraftKings. Weaver has also shown good strikeout ability in the majors, averaging a K/9 of 9.30 over the past 12 months, so he can provide a lot of fantasy value with some better batted-ball luck on today’s slate.
Nick Pivetta has quietly become one of the top strikeout artists in the game this season. His K/9 of 10.80 ranks 11th in the league, and he’s made some nice strides in his HR/FB rate and walk rate as well. He’s someone to keep an eye on over the second half of the season.
He’s also been particularly effective from a Statcast perspective over his past two starts, limiting opponents to an average distance of just 184 feet. That represents a differential of -21 feet compared to his 12-month average, and pitchers with comparable strikeout ability and distance differentials have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.59 on DraftKings. He does have a difficult matchup today vs. the Reds at the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, but he possesses big upside at his current salary.
Fastballs
Chris Archer: He’s been up and down this season but has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his past seven starts. He draws one of the best matchups on the board today vs. the Baltimore Orioles, who have scored four or fewer runs in four of six games since trading away Manny Machado. There is a strong chance of rain during this game, with the current forecast calling for a 62% chance of precipitation, so you’ll want to monitor the status before lineup lock.
CC Sabathia: Old man CC doesn’t have the same strikeout upside as the other top arms on today’s slate but is a massive -280 favorite against the hapless Kansas City Royals. They’re next to last in MLB in runs per game this season, and their projected lineup has posted a wOBA of just .291 against southpaws over the past 12 months. He’s priced at only $6,900 on DraftKings, and pitchers with comparable salaries and moneyline odds have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.58 on DraftKings.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top-rated five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
- Curtis Granderson (L)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)
- Justin Smoak (S)
- Teoscar Hernandez (R)
- Brandon Drury (R)
Total Salary: $18,800
The Blue Jays don’t figure to be a popular target on today’s slate, with none of the above batters projected for greater than 4% ownership. Their implied team total of 4.8 runs is almost 1.5 runs lower than the Yankees’ slate-best mark, but the above stack costs $4,500 less than the stack for the Bronx Bombers. That could be important on a slate with tons of stud pitchers available.
They’re taking on White Sox right-hander Reynaldo Lopez, who seems like a prime regression candidate over the second half of the season. He’s been hit pretty well over his past two starts, allowing an average distance of 233 feet and exit velocity of 92 miles per hour, and he’s also limited batters to a ground-ball rate of just 21%. The stacked batters have shown plenty of power against right-handers over the past 12 months, so they could do some damage against Lopez on today’s slate.
Coors Field is also available on today’s slate, and the top FanDuel stack when building by projected points belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
- Charlie Blackmon (L)
- Ian Desmond (R)
- Nolan Arenado (R)
- Trevor Story (R)
Total Salary: $16,400
DFS players will likely have to choose between the stud pitchers and Coors on today’s slate, which could result in lower ownership than usual for the Rockies. They’re taking on A’s left-hander Sean Manaea, who has really struggled since no-hitting the Red Sox earlier in the season. The Rockies have crushed left-handers this season, posting the second-highest wOBA in the league, and they have unsurprisingly been better when facing left-handers at Coors Field. Desmond and Story also enter today’s contest in excellent recent form, with each owning a distance differential of at least +21 feet and hard-hit differential of at least +17 percentage points over the past 15 days.
Other Batters
Mark Canha is expected to occupy the second spot in the lineup for the A’s at Coors and will be on the positive side of his batting splits against Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland. He’s posted a strong .380 wOBA and .288 ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months, and Oakland’s implied team total of 5.6 runs ranks fifth on the slate.
Francisco Lindor has become one of the best players in baseball and is on pace to club more than 30 HRs for the second straight year. Not too shabby for a guy who was never supposed to be a great hitter. He’s been in good form recently, exceeding his 12-month averages in distance, exit velocity and hard-hit rate over his past 10 games, and the Indians are implied for 5.1 runs today vs. Tigers right-hander Mike Fiers. He’s worth considering at projected ownership of just 2% to 4% on DraftKings.
Cheap batters could be especially useful on today’s slate, which makes David Fletcher an appealing punt play at just $2,700 on DraftKings. He’s expected to occupy the leadoff spot for the Angels and will be on the positive side of his batting splits vs. Mariners left-hander Wade LeBlanc.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Max Scherzer
Photo credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
