The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
DraftKings and FanDuel are each offering large guaranteed prize pools for Game 2 of the NBA Finals between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors at 8 p.m. ET.
FanDuel’s contests feature five-man rosters, a $60,000 cap and scoring multipliers for whichever player you designate as the MVP (2x), Star (1.5x), and Pro (1.2x). FanDuel’s multipliers introduce more lineup combinations and should help to limit some of the all-too-common ties that occur in these contests.
DraftKings is debuting a new format for their biggest GPP: Showdown Captain Mode. Instead of the traditional six-man roster, you’ll now have to choose one captain, who scores 1.5x points but also costs 1.5x his traditional salary. Choosing a high-priced player means you’ll have to sacrifice more of your available cap space but gives you added upside if you choose the correct stud. Choosing a low-priced player limits how many additional points your captain will score but allows you to create a more balanced roster. It’s a really cool idea by DraftKings and should lead to a lot of unique lineups despite the limited player pool.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors (-11.5) | O/U: 214.5
8 p.m. ET | ABC
This is going to be an entertaining series if Game 1 is any indication. Game 1 provided overtime, an ejection, an all-time great performance from LeBron James, and one of the most boneheaded plays in the history of basketball. The Cavaliers were arguably the better team in that game, but Vegas has still made them 11.5-point underdogs for Sunday’s game. The public is starting to believe, however, with 58% of the bets coming in on the underdog Cavs.
Warriors (113 implied points)
Stephen Curry scored 53.5 DraftKings points in Game 1, and the Cavs seemed to have no answer for him on the defensive end. He torched both J.R. Smith and George Hill, exceeding his per-100-possession scoring average by 12.7 points and 35.4 points respectively in those matchups, and was also able to exploit Kevin Love in switches. It will be interesting to see if the Cavaliers try something different on defense in game 2, including possibly switching LeBron on to Curry for longer stretches. It’s not possible to stop all of the Warriors’ options, but slowing down Curry might be priority one in game 2.
Kevin Durant led the Warriors with a usage rate of 29.7% in Game 1, but he still looked oddly disinterested at certain points. He also struggled from the field, shooting 8-of-22 from the field and 1-of-7 from 3-point range, but scored 54.25 DraftKings points thanks to increased production in the peripheral categories. He averaged 8.2 boards and 5.4 assists against the Cavs in last year’s finals, so he could be due for increased production in those categories after struggling against the Rockets.
Draymond Green was the Warriors’ top contributor from a fantasy perspective in Game 1, scoring 55.75 DraftKings points. He had a vintage Draymond night, tallying 13 points, 11 rebounds, nine assists, five steals, and two blocks. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +9.55 against the Cavs on DraftKings over the past four seasons. The winning DraftKings lineup had Green at their Captain spot during Game 1, and his cheaper salary allowed them to squeeze in LeBron, Durant, and Kevin Love. He was only selected as the captain in 9% of entries in that contest, but he should be a more popular selection on Sunday’s slate.
Klay Thompson is questionable for Sunday, but said that he’s “optimistic” he will play after Saturday’s practice. He scored well in Game 1, but as usual, his overall line was hurt by his lack of peripheral statistics. He could be an interesting target today from a game theory perspective, as some people will likely be scared away by his questionable designation across the industry. If he isn’t able to suit up, Curry and Durant figure to be the biggest beneficiaries. Each saw a usage bump of at least 4.7% and increased their fantasy production by at least 6.6 DraftKings points per 36-minutes with Thompson off the court this season.
Andre Iguodala is doubtful for Game 2, which means he will more than likely miss his sixth straight contest for the Warriors. Kevon Looney has started each of the five previous games but has scored 15.0 DraftKings points or less in four of them. JaVale McGee replaced Looney in the starting lineup for the second half of Game 1, and he’s an intriguing target at just $1,000 on DraftKings. He scored 7.25 DraftKings points in just six minutes and could start from the jump today to combat the size of Tristan Thompson. If he can see even 10 minutes in Sunday’s contest, he has the potential to be a massive value at his current salary.
Shaun Livingston put together a nice showing in Game 1 and was one of the key value players for the winning lineups on DraftKings. With that said, he looks like a prime candidate for regression in Game 2. He’s scored over 10 fantasy points in his twice in the past seven games, including Game 1, and it is unlikely he will shoot 100% from the field and free throw line in today’s contest.
Jordan Bell and David West round out the Warriors’ rotation. Bell played just 12.5 minutes in Game 1 and could see fewer minutes in this series with the Cavs playing a more traditional rotation. West was expected to play a larger role in Game 1 but was ultimately forced off the court. He was only on the court for seven possessions, but the Warriors posted a defensive rating of 112.6 over that span.
Cavaliers (101.5 implied points)
The Cavs were more competitive than expected in Game 1, thanks mostly to a ridiculous stat line from LeBron James. He tallied 51 points, eight rebounds, eight assists, one steal, one block and 76.0 DraftKings points. The only question with LeBron for Game 2 is if you should consider him for the Captain spot on DraftKings. Ultimately, it’s a tough proposition given his current price point. He scored 114 DraftKings points as the Captain in Game 1, but his salary prohibits you from pairing him with other elite players. It’s probably best to look elsewhere for your captain and just roster LeBron as a traditional utility on today’s slate.
Kevin Love was solid in Game 1 but still has room for growth going forward. He shot just 12.5% from 3-point range, which was a massive decrease compared to his regular season average of 41.5%. He has the potential to be a nice value at his current salary across the industry.
After the top two for the Cavs, there are no guarantees. J.R. Smith was third on the team with 10 points in Game 1, which is absolutely ridiculous considering the game went to overtime. Smith is probably the best bet for minutes in Game 2, and he has scored at least 20.5 DraftKings points in each of his past two games. When he’s not throwing soup or dribbling out the clock in a tied game, he can have some fantasy utility.
George Hill and Tristan Thompson will likely fill the last two spots in the starting lineup, but both players had awful starts in this series. That said, Hill has shown some ceiling during the postseason — he scored 33.75 DraftKings points in Game 6 of the Boston series — so he could be worth considering as a bounce-back option.
Larry Nance Jr. continues to perform well in limited minutes, and he scored 24.75 DraftKings points in 19 minutes in Game 1. He should continue to play a solid role off the bench and will likely be a popular value option on today’s slate.
Jeff Green is the most expensive role player on DraftKings between the two teams on today’s slate. He’s priced at $5,400 and is coming off 36 minutes in Game 1, but shot just 3-of-9 from the field and 1-of-6 from 3-point range in that contest. He’s tough to fit at his current salary, but that will likely make him somewhat low owned on today’s slate. He’s a much easier play on FanDuel, where his $7,000 salary makes him cheaper than Hill, Nance, and Thompson among the Cavs’ role players.
Jordan Clarkson continues to shoot poorly from the field during the postseason, but that hasn’t deterred him from firing away virtually every time he touches the basketball. He posted a usage rate of 25.8% in Game 1, and he’s been at or above that mark in seven of his past nine games. If he ever starts making some of his shots, he has the potential to pay off his salary in a big way. He’s worth considering at his current salary either way; he found himself in the winning lineup for Game 1 despite scoring just 11.25 DraftKings points.
Last up for the Cavs is Kyle Korver, who actually led the team with a boxscore plus-minus of +12 during Game 1. He’s been one of the Cavs’ most underrated players all season but has been underutilized during the playoffs. He could be worth considering just in case Lue has an epiphany overnight, but we should probably start tempering our expectations with Korver.
Good luck tonight, and be sure to check out The Action Network for more in-depth NBA analysis.
Pictured Above (left to right): Jeff Green, J.R. Smith, and Tristan Thompson
Photo Credit: Marcio Jose Sanchez – USA Today Sports
