NFL Week 9 wraps up with a Monday Night Football showdown between the New York Jets and New England Patriots starting at 8:15 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Cam Newton at captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $19,800 as opposed to $13,200.
FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: get your highest-scoring player in the MVP spot.
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Studs
This might be the worst slate of the year from a star-power perspective. The only player who can remotely be considered a stud is Newton, and his production has been lackluster since testing positive for COVID-19. He’s averaged just 143 passing yards per game over his past three contests, and he’s thrown zero touchdowns and five interceptions in that time frame.
Of course, Newton is capable of making up for poor passing production with his legs. He’s rushed for at least 54 yards and a touchdown in two of his past three games, which has allowed him to salvage his fantasy production. He’s actually posted a positive Plus/Minus in two his past three games on DraftKings despite his horrid passing performances.
Newton is in a potential smash spot today vs. the Jets, who have been dreadful defensively this season. They’ve been particularly poor in terms of pass defense, ranking just 31st in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA. Overall, Newton owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.00 on DraftKings, which is one of the top marks on the slate.
Newton should command massive ownership on this slate, particularly in the Captain spot on DraftKings, but he has easily the highest ceiling in this contest. His ceiling projection is more than 10 points higher than every other player’s in our NFL Models.
Damien Harris is the other stud option for the Patriots today. He’s played four games this season, and he’s rushed for at least 100 yards in two of them. He also found the endzone for the first time this season in his last game.
That said, the Jets’ defense has been far better against the run than against the pass. They actually rank 10th in rush defense DVOA, and Harris owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.5 on DraftKings. That could make Harris a bit risky at his current salary, especially since he doesn’t catch passes.
Still, it’s important to remember that the situation can often be more important than the matchup for RBs, and Harris’ situation couldn’t be much better. The Patriots are currently favored by 9.5 points, which sets up a potentially awesome game script. Historically, RBs favored by a comparable margin have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.93 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
The big caveat here is that Harris is not a lock to play tonight. He’s expected to play despite a questionable designation, but make sure to confirm his status before locking him into your lineup. If he were to be ruled out, guys like Rex Burkhead and Sony Michel (who was designated to return for injured reserve) would see a big bump in value.
The big news for the Jets is that Sam Darnold won’t play. That means that Joe Flacco will draw another start, so their offense could be even more putrid than usual. Their offense has already averaged the fewest points per game in the NFL by a wide margin this season, and they’ve averaged just five points per game in Flacco’s two starts.
Unsurprisingly, Flacco hasn’t found a lot of fantasy success in those starts. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in both contests, and he’s yet to eclipse 200 passing yards in a single game this season. That seems almost impossible in 2020.
That said, Flacco is pretty cheap for a starting QB in the single-game format, and he does own the second-highest ceiling projection in our NFL Models. That alone makes him worth consideration.
The good news for Flacco and the Jets is that their receiving corps will essentially be at full strength. That starts with Jamison Crowder, who is currently listed as questionable but is expected to play. Crowder has been a target hog when healthy this season, logging at least 10 targets in all four games. That includes two games with Flacco under center.
Overall, Crowder has scored at least 20.4 DraftKings points in three of four contests this season, which makes him the clear top option on the Jets. His role could be a bit diminished with some of the other WRs back in the lineup, but he should still lead the team in targets.
Midrange
The Jets pass catchers are getting healthier, but the Patriots receiving corps is decimated at the moment. Julian Edelman and N’Keal Harry will both miss their second straight game, and new addition Isaiah Ford will not be available to make his debut.
Jakobi Meyers was asked to carry a huge workload for the Patriots’ last week, and he should be looking at another big workload today. He played on all but one of the Patriots’ offensive snaps last week vs. the Bills and led the team with 10 targets. Newton only attempted 25 passes in that game, so Meyers was easily his favorite target.
He’s been priced up pretty aggressively across the industry, but his $11,000 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.
Next up on the pricing spectrum is the Patriots’ defense, which goes to show just how weak the offensive options are in this contest. They’re priced at $7,400 – which is crazy-high for a defense – but it’s hard to completely ignore them on today’s slate. The Patriots’ defense hasn’t even been that good this season, ranking just 27th in defensive DVOA, but every defense is relevant vs. the Jets.
They’ll likely need to force a few turnovers and possibly score a touchdown to truly return value, but they could also find themselves in the winning lineup if both offenses struggle. Even if they score just eight or nine points, that could be enough to finish as a top-six scorer on DraftKings.
After Meyers, Damiere Byrd and James White stand out as the most logical pass catchers for Newton. Byrd played on every single snap for the Patriots last week, which is something that he’s done for the majority of the season. That hasn’t necessarily translated into a ton of fantasy value, but getting on the field is the first step towards scoring fantasy points.
White is a little tougher to make a case for. He’s had some big games in the past catching passes out of the Patriots’ backfield, but he has struggled to find that same level of success with Newton. It’s not over a huge sample size, but Newton seems more likely to take off and run when pressured instead of checking down to the RB.
The Jets have also been better at defending RBs in the passing game than wide receivers, ranking 12th in DVOA vs. the position.
Lamical Perine has gotten more playing time for the Jets after they released Le’Veon Bell, and he did score 13.5 DraftKings points vs. the Bills two weeks ago. That said, Perine is pretty uninspiring as a prospect – his closest comparable is T.J. Yeldon per PlayerProfiler – and Frank Gore continues to factor into the equation at the position. Perine could find some success vs. the Patriots, who rank merely 30th in terms of rush defense DVOA, but he doesn’t offer a ton of ceiling.
The Jets also have a trio of pass catchers in this price range in Braxton Berrios, Denzel Mims, and Breshad Perriman. Berrios is an easy cross off if Crowder is active since Crowder will handle the majority of the slot snaps. Berrios has played almost exclusively in the slot this year, so he should return to a reserve role.
That leaves Mims and Perriman is the outside receivers. Mims was a second-round draft pick for the Jets last year, and his prospect profile is exciting. He can absolutely fly – he ran a 4.38 40-yard dash at the combine – and his speed is particularly impressive given his 6-foot-3 frame. He played on virtually all of the Jets’ snaps last week, but he finished with just two catches for 42 yards.
Mims might be the future at the WR position for the Jets, but Perriman will likely see more snaps in this contest. He’s also slightly cheaper than Mims on DraftKings, which makes him the preferred option of the duo.
Quick Hits
- Rex Burkhead: $4,600 on DraftKings, $10,000 on FanDuel – Burkhead stands out as a very strong value today on DraftKings given the wide price discrepancy. He’s taken a backseat to Harris since he returned to the lineup four games ago, but Burkhead is really the only Pats’ RB who is capable of producing as a runner and a receiver.
- Kickers and Jets Defense – These options are always in play in the single-game format. They’re much cheaper than the Pats’ defense, so they don’t need to do nearly as much to return value. The kickers in particular could be solid options in a game that is expected to be low scoring.
- Frank Gore: $2,800 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel – Gore will never go away. You would think that a zero-win team would have no interest in playing a 37-year-old RB, but the Jets continue to give Gore work. His role has definitely diminished in recent weeks, but he could return value at a minimal salary in an elite matchup.
- Chris Herndon: $1,600 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel – Herndon is playing on the majority of the Jets’ offensive snaps, but he has basically been a non-factor from a fantasy perspective.
- Ryan Izzo: $1,400 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel – Izzo has virtually no ceiling, but he’s consistently leading the Patriots TEs in snaps. He’s also posted a positive Plus/Minus in two of his past three games on DraftKings even though his raw point production has been pedestrian.
- Gunner Olszewski: $600 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel – He played on 42 snaps last week, and nothing has fundamentally changed about the Pats’ passing attack this week. He didn’t see a single target in that contest, but he could obviously catch a couple passes if he sees that much playing time again today.
