Last week’s premiere rushing performances included a return to form from Todd Gurley, disappointment in a prime spot from Jay Ajayi, and breakout performances from rookies Dalvin Cook and Joe Mixon. Let’s take a look at some of the marquee matchups along the line of scrimmage in this week’s front seven run-game breakdown with help from our NFL Matchups Dashboard.
Featured
Dallas Cowboys (Ezekiel Elliott) vs. Los Angeles Rams
Elliott got back on track during the Cowboys’ Monday night win over the Cardinals, rushing for 80 yards for the 16th time in his last 17 games. His percentage of runs to go for 15-plus yards has fallen from 5.3 percent to 3.6 percent, but big plays were hard to come by against the Giants, Broncos, and Cardinals – the league’s top-three defenses from a season ago in terms of open-field yards allowed per rush. The Cowboys’ new-look offensive line has failed to provide the massive holes that Elliott grew accustomed to seeing on a weekly basis last season, but they’ve still been able to instill their will when it matters most. Overall, the Cowboys lead the league in percentage of runs on third or fourth down with two yards or less to go that achieve a first down or touchdown.
On the other side of the ball, we have a Rams front seven led by All-World defensive tackle Aaron Donald. He’s helped the defense rank among the top half of the league in adjusted line yards allowed up the middle, but the Rams have struggled to slow down opponents on the edge with Robert Quinn and Connor Barwin — two of PFF’s 20-worst edge defenders this season (who each specialize against the pass anyway). Donald is a monster, but so are Travis Frederick and Zach Martin. The Rams have allowed a league-high six rushing touchdowns through three weeks and are one of just six teams to allow at least four runs of 20-plus yards. Elliott is currently the highest-rated running back in Adam Levitan’s Pro Model.
Atlanta Falcons (Devonta Freeman) vs. Buffalo Bills
Freeman and Tevin Coleman were the game’s best one-two punch at running back in the league last season. However, under new offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian, Freeman has emerged as the Falcons’ featured back:
- 2016: Freeman: 17.6 touches per game, Coleman: 11.5 touches per game
- 2017: Freeman: 19.7 TPG, Coleman: 9.7 TPG.
The Falcons made Freeman the league’s highest-paid running back in August and appear determined to no longer limit his workload. While Coleman is explosive and great in his own right, Freeman’s otherworldly vision and physicality suit the team’s zone-based scheme perfectly:
Four of the Falcons’ five starting offensive linemen have been graded as better run blockers than pass blockers by PFF this season, and the team ranks second in adjusted line yards after finishing 10th in the metric last season. The Bills could be without stud defensive tackle Marcell Dareus (ankle, questionable) — a potential death sentence against Freeman in Atlanta considering he’s averaged 20.2 DraftKings points per game (PPG) with a +5.2 Plus/Minus and a 73.7 percent Consistency Rating at home since 2014 (per our Trends tool).
Los Angeles Chargers (Melvin Gordon) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Gordon has averaged 4.86 targets per game in his 15 games as the Chargers’ featured back, giving him a solid fantasy floor in just about any matchup. That said, the Chargers’ new-look offensive line hasn’t gelled and is currently averaging the third-fewest adjusted line yards per rush this season. This problem is compounded by Gordon’s underwhelming tackle-breaking ability, as he ranks 30th among all running backs with an average of 2.25 yards after contact through three weeks. Only Jeremy Hill has averaged fewer yards per carry than Gordon among the 25 running backs to rack up at least 300 carries over the past three seasons.
The Eagles’ front seven will be without impact defensive tackle Fletcher Cox (calf), and linebacker Jordan Hicks (ankle) is questionable. Still, PFF grades both defensive tackle Timmy Jernigan and end Brandon Graham as top-seven players at their positions, and the defense has allowed just 3.3 yards per carry outside of one Kareem Hunt 53-yard scamper. Gordon should get his through the air against the league’s 29th-ranked defense in pass DVOA against running backs through three weeks, but the Eagles’ front seven won’t make things easy for the offensive line.
Jacksonville Jaguars (Leonard Fournette) vs. New York Jets
The good:
- Fournette has worked as the Jaguars’ three-down back, receiving an average of four targets per game. He’s already caught more passes this season (eight) than he did during his 13-game freshman season at LSU.
- Only Carlos Hyde and Gurley have more carries inside the five-yard line this season, and the Jaguars haven’t given potential vulture Chris Ivory any work inside the 10-yard line.
- Fournette has the seventh-most rushing yards (199), fifth-most rushing touchdowns (three), and third-most carries (57) behind the league’s fifth-best offensive line in adjusted line yards.
The bad:
- Fournette is averaging just 3.49 yards per carry, has one run over 20-plus yards, and ranks outside of the top-50 running backs in juke rate (PlayerProfiler).
- Sir Blake Bortles is no longer in London, and defenses will go back to not respecting his arm in continental America. Fournette and Ivory are two of just five running backs to see over 50 percent of their carries come against eight-plus defenders in the box.
- The Jaguars don’t have a guard or tackle graded inside of PFF’s top-45 run-blocking players at their respective position.
The Dolphins have plenty of problems on their offensive line, but the Jets deserve some credit for holding Ajayi to 16 yards rushing on 11 carries. It wasn’t a coincidence the rush defense played better at MetLife Stadium, as the defense allowed 1.3 fewer yards per carry there in 2016. The Jaguars will ride their No. 4 overall pick as far as he can take them, but his limited agility could hurt him in a matchup against the league’s No. 1 defense in percentage of runs stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Honorable Mentions
- Pittsburgh Steelers (Le’Veon Bell) vs. Baltimore Ravens: Bell hasn’t historically suffered from his quarterback’s severe home/away splits, but he already has more games (three) with fewer than 100 total yards then he did all of last regular season (one). That single poor performance in 2016 came against the Ravens in Baltimore.
- Buffalo Bills (LeSean McCoy) vs. Atlanta Falcons: McCoy is one of just four running backs to have at least 20 targets this season and gets a Falcons defense that has allowed an average of 8.67 receptions for 73.3 yards and 0.67 touchdowns to running backs this season. Per 4for4’s Chris Raybon, McCoy has averaged an additional 1.49 yards per carry and 0.6 touchdowns during indoor games in his career.
- Los Angeles Rams (Todd Gurley) vs. Dallas Cowboys: Are we absolutely positive Gurley is back? His first 100-yard rushing performance since December of 2015 took 28 carries against a 49ers defense that was the third-worst ever against the run relative to the rest of the league. Now Gurley gets a Cowboys defense that has allowed one 100-yard rusher since the beginning of last season.
- Seattle Seahawks (Chris Carson) vs. Indianapolis Colts: Carson has played 56 and 61 percent of the offense’s snaps over the past two weeks and won’t lose passing-down work to C.J. Prosise (ankle, out). Carson has PFF’s third-highest Elusive Rating through three weeks but will face an underrated Colts rush defense that has allowed just 3.3 yards per carry this season and no runs over 20 yards.
- Cincinnati Bengals (Joe Mixon) vs. Cleveland Browns: Mixon received a season-high 21 touches last week and played 56 percent of the offense’s snaps. Seemingly locked in as the team’s featured back, Mixon will face a Browns rush defense that was the second-worst unit in both DraftKings PPG and Plus/Minus allowed to running backs a season ago.
