The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features a nine-game slate starting at 7:07 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Joe Ryan ($10,500) Minnesota Twins (-125) vs. New York Yankees
The Twins being favored here is a strong signal from betting markets that Ryan is worth considering against a tough Yankees lineup. That the Yankees have the slate’s lowest implied total is an even stronger one.
On a slate devoid of true aces on the mound, Ryan is as close as they come. Through four starts this season, he has a 3.24 ERA and a strikeout rate above 30%. Both numbers are considerable improvements over last season, but it’s likely that they represent a step forward from Ryan — who’s just 26 — rather than just a string of good luck.
His underlying metrics are equally improved, so there’s no reason to doubt the step forward. Further, the Yankees have actually been a slightly below-average offense this season despite their star power. Ryan has the best median projection in THE BAT today and gets a further boost from a pitcher-friendly umpire.
That’s a trend that I found to be surprisingly predictive in the past.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Jose Butto ($5,500) New York Mets (-210) vs. Washington Nationals
This is a case of a bad (or at least unproven) pitcher meeting an even worse lineup with a price point that makes it worth considering. Butto has just two major-league starts to his name, with an 8.00 ERA and underlying metrics just as bad. He’s just 25, though, with a prospect report that suggests he could round into a league-average starter at some point.
“League average” should be more than good enough to have a solid outing against Washington, the second-worst team in the majors against right-handed pitching by wRC+. They have a fairly low strikeout rate, however, making Butto more of a floor than ceiling play today.
Still, a solid floor is more than enough for a pitcher at near-minimum salary. He’s an excellent cash game option, or GPP SP2 if trying to fit some more expensive bats.
He leads both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT projections for Pts/Sal.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Nestor Cortes ($9,900) New York Yankees (+106) at Minnesota Twins
Cortes is an excellent game-theory-based pivot from Ryan today. With Ryan projecting for the highest ownership on the slate, Cortes should come at a discount as the opposite number. That’s despite having similar projections at a slightly lower price point.
Cortes has been solid this season, with a 3.09 ERA and 2.97 xERA. He doesn’t bring the strikeout upside of most pitchers in his price range, but that’s an acceptable trade for getting a less popular option. The Twins — while being a good hitting team overall — also rank bottom-five in wRC+ against lefties.
Cortes also shares many selling points with Cortes, including the aforementioned umpire and near-ideal weather for pitchers tonight. It’s a pitcher-friendly park as well, so all signs are pointing in his direction. Ryan’s strikeout upside is enough to eat the ownership in cash games and smaller GPPs, but Cortes is my preferred deeper-field option.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
After a solid five-run performance last night, the Diamondbacks are again considerably too cheap for their range of outcomes on Tuesday. They’re projected for 5.5 runs against the Royals’ Brady Singer ($7,200), who has an 8.14 ERA in 2023 coming into the contest.
This is also one of the few games with a Park Factor and Weather Rating (with or without the roof open) that give any boost to hitters, adding to the value of this stack.
This isn’t the most exciting stack, as Arizona continues to perform at a roughly league-average rate. However, this is a slate without a ton to love — especially at reasonable price points — making them a solid stack for all contest types.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Brandon Nimmo OF ($4,300 DraftKings; $3,500 FanDuel) New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals (Josiah Gray)
The Mets are another team I’m considering stacking today, with a 5.1-run implied total and an excellent pitching matchup against Josiah Gray. Gray has a 3.74 ERA on the season, but he’s been considerably lucky in getting there. Both his SIERA and his xFIP are on the other side of 5.00.
Gray has also struggled against lefties, allowing a .382 wOBA in his career. That makes Nimmo the standout value from the Mets on DraftKings — along with his .350 batting average to start the year.
Nimmo is also a big beneficiary of the MLB’s rule changes heading into this season. He has solid- but not excellent — speed, making him the type of marginal base stealer that suddenly is on the move more often. Nimmo has stolen as many bases this season (3) as in all of 2022.
He was also one of the players most harmed by shifting last season, with a 70-point wOBA jump against traditional defenses compared to those playing a full shift.
Lamont Wade Jr. 1B/OF ($2,700 DraftKings; $2,700 FanDuel) San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Jake Woodford)
Wade is the rare mispriced player by DraftKings on Tuesday, with his identical salaries on DraftKings and FanDuel equating to an 89% Bargain Rating on the former site. He’s the leadoff hitter for a team with a 4.5-run implied total, making him a steal at his current price.
Wade’s hitting just .216 this season but projects as a somewhat better hitter than his current numbers. He’s also facing a pitcher in Woodford with an ERA over 6.00 and an xERA over 8.00, so it’s a good time to get things moving in the right direction.
While he’s not the highest upside pick, sometimes we just need to save a bit of a salary and scrape by with a few points. Wade is the perfect player to do just that on DraftKings, with the added bonus of multi-position eligibility.
Bobby Witt Jr. SS ($5,000 DraftKings; $3,300 FanDuel) Kansas City Royals at Arizona Diamondbacks (Ryne Nelson)
Witt let us down yesterday, scoring just two DraftKings points thanks to a walk. However, I’m going back to the well tonight. It’s another excellent pitching matchup with Ryne Nelson of Arizona and his 4.91 ERA. The Royals are implied for 4.7 runs, with Witt likely to be a large part of that.
While we aren’t getting much of a salary discount coming off of a bad game, we might get a break in the ownership department. Look for Witt to turn it around tonight.
Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations also like Witt tonight:
