The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Saturday features a nine-game main slate starting at 4:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Logan Gilbert stands out atop the pack on Saturday’s slate. He hasn’t had the best start to his season, pitching to a 4.38 ERA across his first 13 starts, but his advanced metrics are far more impressive. He has a 3.47 xERA and a 3.41 FIP, and he’s walking less than 1.6 batters per nine innings. Gilbert is also putting together his best year from a strikeout perspective, averaging a career-high 9.85 strikeouts per nine innings.
He takes the field in a phenomenal spot Saturday vs. the White Sox. They rank 29th in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, and they also boast the 10th-highest strikeout rate. As a result, Gilbert’s opponent implied team total of 3.3 runs is easily the top mark on the slate. Gilbert isn’t an overwhelming favorite, but that’s due mostly to the White Sox sending a capable pitcher to the mound in Lucas Giolito. Still, pitchers with comparable opponent implied totals have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.91 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
Gilbert stands out as a particularly strong option on FanDuel, where his $9,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. His ceiling projection isn’t quite as high as we’d like for an ace pitcher, but he still leads all starters in that department per THE BAT.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Christopher Sanchez will be making just his second start of the season on Saturday, and his first outing was a bit of a mixed bag. The bad news is he allowed three runs across just 4.1 innings against a light-hitting Rockies’ squad. The good news is that he punched out five batters. His 2.35 FIP was considerably lower than his 6.23 ERA, so overall, the good definitely outweighed the bad.
That start came all the way back in April, but he’ll get another favorable matchup Saturday vs. the A’s. They’ve been one of the best possible matchups for right-handed pitchers this season, ranking 25th in wRC+ and second in strikeout rate. Pitching against the A’s also results in plenty of win expectancy, and the Phillies are listed as -176 favorites.
Sanchez is dirt cheap at $5,700 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 80%, and it’s rare to get such an affordable starter as a large favorite. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries and moneyline odds have posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.12. There’s no guarantee that Sanchez goes the five innings required to get the win, but he stands out as one of the better pure values on a weak pitching slate.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Trevor Richards is priced at $5,000 on DraftKings, and he has a brutal matchup vs. the Rangers. They’ve been one of the best offenses in baseball this season, ranking second in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching. However, Richards is clearly much better than his price tag indicates. He’s pitched to a 3.30 ERA across 30 innings this season, and his 2.95 xERA is even better. Most of that work has come out of the bullpen, but he did pitch three innings in his last appearance. That was seven days ago, so it’s possible that Richards is given a bit of a longer leash in this contest. Five innings is probably his absolute ceiling – which is not ideal for a starting pitcher – but he still boasts the top projected Plus/Minus in THE BAT.
Hunter Greene is another pitcher with a tough matchup, as he’ll take on the Astros on Saturday. However, the Astros’ lineup hasn’t been nearly as impressive this season as they have been in years past, ranking just 20th in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers. They’re also currently without Yordan Alvarez, which makes them a significantly easier matchup. Greene has yet to string together consistent performances in his young MLB career, but he has outstanding upside every time he takes the bump. He has one of the hardest fastballs in baseball, with his average velocity sitting at 99 miles per hour, and that translates into elite strikeout production. He’s averaging just under 13 strikeouts per nine innings this season, and he leads all pitchers in K Prediction on Saturday’s slate. He’s also one of the best pure values among the pricier options on DraftKings, with his $9,000 salary resulting in a Bargain Rating of 73%.
For cash games, it’s hard to look past what Bryce Elder brings to the table for the Braves. His 3.8-run opponent implied total is the second lowest mark on the slate, and he’s a massive -300 favorite. Picking up a win from your pitcher is extremely important on FanDuel, and pitchers with comparable moneyline odds have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.03. Elder is way overpriced for his typical production, but he’s worth considering in a matchup vs. the hapless Rockies.
MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in our MLB Models when generated by Rating using THE BAT belongs to the Los Angeles Angels:
The Angels have two of the best hitters in baseball in Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, and both players will run you more than $6,000 on this slate. However, the rest of the stack is pretty affordable, especially if you include Matt Thaiss at catcher. It ultimately helps make this stack quite reasonable overall, checking in with an average of approximately $4,500 per player.
The Angels’ implied team total of 5.8 runs ranks second on the slate, trailing only the Braves’ gaudy mark of 6.5. However, stacking the top five for the Braves is going to cost you $28,300, so they’re much tougher to fit around a stud pitcher.
The Angels draw a matchup vs. Mike Mayers, who has pitched to a 5.06 ERA this season. His advanced metrics are a bit better, including a 3.84 xERA and a 3.65 FIP, but it’s over a sample size of just 21.1 innings. Mayers was rocked over 50.2 innings in 2022, allowing a 6.37 FIP and 2.66 homers per nine innings, so this is a pretty exploitable matchup overall.
Ohtani is the clear leader of this stack, and he has been red hot of late. Using the PlateIQ tool, you can see just how dominant he’s been against right-handed pitchers over the past 30 days:
Anthony Rendon is the only member of this stack who hasn’t held his own against right-handers over that time frame, and you could easily replace him with Brandon Drury if you choose. Drury is a bit more expensive isn’t quite as correlated with Trout and Ohtani, but he’s been the Angels’ second-best hitter against right-handers over that time frame.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Edward Olivares OF ($2,500 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels (Griffin Canning)
The Angels will draw most of the attention in this matchup, but the Royals have some appeal as well. Canning has struggled to a 4.56 ERA this season, and despite being right-handed, most of his struggles have come against right-handed batters. They own a .360 wOBA and .505 slugging percentage against him, and they’re averaging 2.33 homers per nine innings. Olivares also fares better in righty-righty matchups, posting a 111 wRC+ in that split for the year. He’s also been hot at the dish recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games. He leads all batters in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus using the blended projections.
Austin Riley 3B ($5,500 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies (Connor Seabold)
Riley and the Braves are going to be extremely chalky on Saturday, but he’s impossible to ignore at just $3,000 on FanDuel. It is an absurdly cheap price tag, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%, and while Riley hasn’t been as good this year as he was in 2022, he’s still a very dangerous hitter. He has plenty of appeal hitting the middle of the Braves’ potent lineup against Seabold, who has surrendered a .364 wOBA against right-handed hitters.
Dan Vogelbach 1B ($2,300 DraftKings, $2,300 FanDuel) New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Adam Wainwright)
It has been a brutal start to the year for Vogelbach, who has displayed very little power for someone with a previous 30-homer campaign on his ledger. However, Vogelbach did go yard on Friday, and he has historically been an excellent source of power against right-handed pitchers. Wainwright is not the same pitcher that he was in his prime, struggling to a 5.79 ERA and 6.12 xERA through seven starts this year. Vogelbach is a cheap source of pop in this matchup, and his ownership should be very reasonable.
