The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Saturday features a 12-game main slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Saturday’s slate is not a particularly good one for stud pitchers. Only three starters are priced above $9,400 on DraftKings, and none of them grade out particularly well in THE BAT.
With that in mind, going down to someone like Steven Matz makes a lot of sense. Matz isn’t typically someone you would consider a “stud,” but his matchup vs. the Pirates changes things. He’s a -200 favorite, and his opponent implied team total of 3.9 runs is tied for the second-lowest mark on the slate. Historically, players with comparable Vegas data have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.09 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
Matz also brings just enough strikeout upside to the table. He’s far from an elite strikeout pitcher, but he’s averaged at least 8.59 strikeouts per nine innings in each of the past six years. That includes 10.13 in his first season with the Cardinals in 2022. Pittsburgh had the second-highest strikeout rate against left-handers last season, so Matz also provides a bit more upside than usual in that department on Saturday.
Matz is also massively underpriced for this matchup on DraftKings. While his $8,900 salary on FanDuel is reasonable, his $6,900 price tag on DraftKings is a joke. It results in a Bargain Rating of 90% and easily makes him the top pitching option on the slate.
MLB DFS Value Picks
If you’re looking to go cheaper than Matz on FanDuel, Carlos Carrasco is an interesting buy-low candidate. He’s had a dreadful start to the year, and as an aging pitcher, it’s possible that he’s going to be heavily affected by the new pitch clock rules. He was already in decline in terms of his skill set, so it’s possible that he’s not going to be a viable target this season.
Still, it seems too early to give up on Carrasco completely.
He’ll draw a strong matchup Saturday vs. the Athletics, and Carrasco is still capable of striking batters out. He averaged 9.0 strikeouts per nine innings last season, and he ranked in the 94th percentile in chase rate. The A’s are a relatively free-swinging group, so this seems like an excellent opportunity for him to pile up the strikeouts.
His Vegas data also compares pretty favorably to Matz’s. He’s a -197 favorite, while his opponent implied team total sits at 4.1 runs.
Carrasco has been priced down to just $7,500 on FanDuel, resulting in a position-high Bargain Rating of 97%. That represents a decrease of -$1,300 since his first start, so this could be the perfect opportunity to take a flyer. He leads all pitchers in projected FanDuel Plus/Minus per THE BAT.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
The top opponent implied team total on the slate belongs to another former Met: Seth Lugo. The reliever-turned-starter has had a great start to the year for the Padres, pitching to a 1.38 ERA across 13 innings. His advanced metrics suggest he’s due for a bit of regression, but his 3.63 xERA and 3.45 FIP still make him an above-average pitcher. He’ll face a Brewers’ projected lineup with a 27.3% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months, and he’s another pitcher who stands out as a massive value on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $8,700, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 87%.
Tyler Mahle is one of the most expensive arms on the slate, and his matchup vs. the Yankees is pretty unappealing. However, he does lead all starters with a 6.14 K Prediction. That gives him arguably the top ceiling at the position, and he’s projected for less than 10% ownership on DraftKings. The result is a 97% Leverage Rating, making him an enticing contrarian option for tournaments.
Zach Plesac looks pretty similar to Matz and Lugo on this slate. He’s another middling pitcher with an outstanding matchup, taking on the Nationals in Washington. They possess quite possibly the least intimidating lineup in the league, and they’re dead last in wRC+ vs. right-handers through the first two weeks. Plesac doesn’t have the same strikeout ability as Matz and Lugo, but he could certainly pitch five or six clean innings in this matchup.
MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in our MLB Models when generated by projected points using THE BAT belongs to the Cleveland Guardians:
The Guardians get one of the most favorable matchups of the day against right-hander Chad Kuhl. Kuhl spent most of his career in the pitcher-friendly confines of PNC Park in Pittsburgh, but that changed when he moved to Colorado last season. That’s about as big of a park downgrade as you can possibly get, and Kuhl responded with a 5.72 ERA and 5.31 xERA.
Things haven’t gone any better for Kuhl in Washington in 2023. He’s posted an 8.10 ERA through his first two outings, and his advanced metrics suggest he’s been as bad as believed. He’s issued an average of 4.5 free passes per nine innings, while opposing batters have managed 2.7 homers per nine innings. That’s a hard combination to bounce back from.
Despite being a right-handed pitcher, most of Kuhl’s struggles have come against right-handed batters this season. He’s held lefties to just a .237 wOBA, but righties have crushed him to the tune of a .523 mark. Righties were also slightly better against Kuhl last season, but he surrendered at least a .365 wOBA to both sides of the dish. Ultimately, all of the Guardians’ top hitters stand out as viable targets in this matchup.
First baseman Josh Naylor stands out as the best pure value in the Guardians’ offense on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $4,100, but he’s arguably their most dangerous hitter against right-handed pitchers. He posted a 139 wRC+ in that split last season, and 19 of his 20 homers came against right-handed pitchers. He has two homers against right-handers so far this season, so he’s more than capable of taking Kuhl deep.
Other Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Nick Senzel OF ($2,000 DraftKings; $2,300 FanDuel) Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Matt Strahm)
We don’t necessarily need a min-priced hitter on this slate since there aren’t any true stud pitchers to pay up for. Still, Senzel is a very appealing punt play if you’re looking for one. The Reds are currently implied for a healthy 4.7 runs vs. Strahm, and Senzel has historically been at his best against left-handed pitchers. He’s off to a terrible start at the dish this season, but Senzel is also capable of doing some damage on the basepath if he manages to get on base.
Kyle Schwarber OF ($5,500 DraftKings; $3,100 FanDuel) Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds (Graham Ashcraft)
Ashcraft has been solid to start the year, but I have no idea why he’s the most expensive pitcher on the FanDuel slate. That’s had an impact on the Phillies’ price tags as well, with Schwarber standing out as one of the best values of the day at just $3,100. Schwarber got off to a slow start this season, but he has turned things around in a big way recently. He’s finished with at least 21.6 FanDuel points in four of his past five games, and he’s gone yard in two of them. Schwarber is capable of hitting homers in bunches, so don’t be surprised if his hot streak continues at the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.
Ketel Marte 2B ($4,200 DraftKings; $2,500 FanDuel) Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins (Braxton Garrett)
Marte is a switch-hitter, but he has historically fared much better from the right-hand batter’s box. He has a 130 wRC+ for his career against southpaws, and he’s at 124 in that split through the first two weeks of the new year. Garrett has some strikeout upside, but he owns a mediocre 6.08 xERA through his first two starts of 2023. Righties have torched him to a .487 wOBA, so this seems like a great spot for a big Marte performance. He’s another batter who is massively underpriced on FanDuel, where his $2,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%.
