Which running backs have the most favorable fantasy matchups? Which backs should you consider sitting?
Here’s a breakdown of five notable running backs featured in Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon and Matthew Freedman’s Week 13 fantasy football rankings.
The No. 1 RB
Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams
Gurley disappointed fantasy owners in Week 11 against the Chiefs as he was in and out of the game with an ankle injury, but head coach Sean McVay stated Gurley should be “100%” heading into Week 13.
Gurley leads all running backs in our FantasyLabs Player Models in floor, ceiling and median projections.
The Most Favorable Matchups
Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers
McCaffrey erupted for 46.7 PPR points against the Seahawks in Week 12.
His absurd usage for the Panthers gives him one of the highest floors and ceilings on a weekly basis. McCaffrey leads the Panthers in target share (23.5%) and red-zone opportunities (43.5%), while his 20.4 touches per game ranks fifth among all running backs.
The Bucs have lost some key pieces on their defensive front this season and presently rank as Pro Football Focus’ No. 32 defense against the rush.
CMC is our rankers’ No. 2 running back across scoring formats for Week 13.
Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
The Packers are finally utilizing Jones properly. He’s averaging 69% of the Packers’ market share of carries, including 47% of their market share of red-zone opportunities.
Sunday’s game should set up well for him since the Packers are massive 14-point favorites against a Cardinals defense that ranks 21st in Football Outsiders’ rush DVOA.
Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs
There are five double-digit favorites in Week 13 (see live odds here), but the Chiefs are the largest, favored over the Raiders by a whopping 15 points.
Per our FantasyLabs Trends tool, running backs featured in games with comparable spreads have averaged 17.32 fantasy points per game.
Matchup Downgrade
Tevin Coleman and Ito Smith, Atlanta Falcons
It’s difficult to depend on two running backs who are in a full-blown timeshare in a tough matchup against the Ravens. Since Devonta Freeman went down, Tevin Coleman and Ito Smith are averaging just 13.0 and 9.2 touches per game, respectively.
This week they’ll take on a Ravens defense that’s allowing only 3.9 yards per attempt and 92.1 rushing yards per game to opposing backfields.
Want another edge? Be sure to keep up with the week’s news on FantasyLabs.
