The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for Wednesday’s seven-game early slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to achieve, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Josh Palacios ($2,100): Outfielder, Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pittsburgh Pirates spent years languishing in the NL Central basement, cultivating talent for their next window. Now, the Bucs have a stable of young, unassuming skilled players helping them compete for a division title. Among them stands Josh Palacios, who has moved into the leadoff role. Palacios’ salary has not yet caught up with his projected fantasy ceiling, making him a preferred bargain play on Wednesday’s early slate.
The Pirates outfielder has elite underlying metrics, albeit a limited sample. Through 63 plate appearances, Palacios has a 54.0% hard-hit rate, contributing to a .476 expected slugging percentage. Predictably, the left-handed batter has better splits against righties, posting a .412 slugging percentage versus conventional arms. Still, there is room for growth as actual stats catch up with expected values.
Palacios leads our bargain categories, ranking first in Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary. He’ll have plenty of opportunities to produce, batting from the top of the order.
Jake McCarthy ($2,600): Outfielder, Arizona Diamondbacks
Like the Pirates, the Arizona Diamondbacks have surprised baseball enthusiasts, jumping out to the division lead in the NL West. They are showing no signs of letting up and continue to get run production out of their entire lineup. Jake McCarthy has been a stabilizing force at the bottom of the order and is projected to sustain his current hot streak.
McCarthy enters Wednesday’s tilt against the Milwaukee Brewers with hits in eight of his past nine games. Across that stretch, the 25-year-old has accumulated 13 hits, including two doubles, two triples, and a home run, driving in two and coming around to score eight more. Further, he’s added an extra layer of fantasy production, stealing two bags over the nine-game sample.
The D-Backs outfielder is running hot, accumulating a .448 slugging percentage and .344 on-base percentage in June. More importantly, McCarthy has seen a surge in run production, making him a top-tier fantasy producer over the last few weeks. Don’t pass on that value on today’s slate.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Kevin Gausman ($11,000 DraftKings, $11,100 FanDuel) vs. Miami Marlins
Kevin Gausman leads a stable of above-average Toronto Blue Jays starting pitchers. The former All-Star leads the team in ERA, innings pitched, and strikeouts. Moreover, he’s our median and ceiling projection leader on the early slate.
Gausman relies primarily on three pitches. He sets up batters with his mid-90s 4-seamer, eliciting swing-and-misses with his splitter and slider. Gausman induces a 42.4% whiff rate considering just the latter two pitches. Combined with his heater, he ranks in the top 33% of pitchers in whiff rate and top 7% in strikeout rate.
We’re also anticipating a breakout performance from the Jays’ starter. Gausman has been limited to eight strikeouts across his last 10.2 innings pitched, well below his league-leading K/9 rate of 11.8. The former fourth-overall selection has recorded double-digit punchouts in six of his previous 13 starts, implying he’s due for a slate-leading effort.
Further, Gausman has been unmerciful from the mound this month, allowing one or fewer runs in all but one of his four starts. Consequently, he’s lowered his ERA to 2.96 in June, going 3-0 along the way. We expect him to reach his fantasy ceiling and live up to his billing as the top arm available.
Hitter
Kyle Tucker ($5,200 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel) vs. New York Mets
He may have been held hitless through the first two games of the series, but Kyle Tucker remains one of the best hitters in the game. The Houston Astros’ outfielder is poised for a breakout performance and has the analytics working in his favor in this interleague showdown against the New York Mets.
Before this mini-slump, Tucker had multiple-hit games in four of his past five outings. In total, the hard-hitting left-handed batter accumulated nine hits, five runs, and two extra-base hits across the modest sample. In reconciling his current form with his underlying metrics, we expect Tucker to get back on track Wednesday against the Mets.
Tucker ranks in the 90th percentile or better in expected slugging percentage, expected weighted on-base average, and strikeout rate, posting above-average metrics in barrel rate and average exit velocity. Despite the analytics success, he remains below his expected slugging and on-base percentages, implying more productive at-bats are on the horizon.
A couple of weeks ago, we highlighted Tucker as a breakout candidate. He has progressed slightly, but there is still room for improvement for the reigning All-Star. That’s reflected in our aggregate projections, ranking him as the top hitter on the early slate.
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More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Andrew Abbott ($8,200 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel) vs. Colorado Rockies
Taking on the Colorado Rockies comes with its own set of perks, advantages that aren’t needed for Andrew Abbott. Through his first three big league starts, the rookie southpaw has flourished. Abbott is poised to maintain his perfect record for at least one more start, rating as one of the best pitchers on the slate.
Abbott has been virtually unhittable since joining the Cincinnati Reds. The lefty has given up just ten hits across 17.2 innings, holding all three of his opponents off the scoreboard. He’s flashed above-average strikeout metrics, inducing a 20.0% whiff rate or better on his curveball and changeup while keeping batters off guard with his four-pitch mix. Consequently, he’s posted above-average weighted on-base and expected slugging percentages en route to three straight wins.
The Rockies have more strikeouts than any other team over the past few weeks. Those issues have been more pronounced against lefties, with the Rockies recording the third-most strikeouts against southpaws this season. Abbott will add to those woes as he reaches his fantasy ceiling in Wednesday’s series finale.
Hitters
Jonathan India ($5,000 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel) vs. Colorado Rockies
Out of nowhere, the Reds have emerged as one of the top teams in the majors, winning ten straight and scoring five or more in eight of those contests. Jonathan India has been a primary contributor throughout that stretch and should maintain that form in Wednesday’s contest against the Rockies.
The Reds’ infielder has recorded hits in eight of his last ten outings, perpetuating an above-average month for the leadoff hitter. Over that ten-game sample, India has nine hits, eight runs scored, and eight RBI. Moreover, we’ve seen the return of his power stroke, as India has compiled four homers and two doubles, elevating his slugging percentage to .459 this month.
As good as India has been, he’s still falling short of his expected slugging percentage, suggesting there’s no reason he should slow down in this one. That’s reflected in our algorithm, which puts India in the upper echelon of hitters available today.
Jake Fraley ($4,400 DraftKings, $3,200 FanDuel) vs. Colorado Rockies
We’re adding to our Reds stack with our final pick, highlighting Jake Fraley as one of the most viable fantasy producers on the early slate. Fraley recently returned to the lineup but showed no signs of rust following his stint on the injured list.
The left-handed batting outfielder didn’t miss a beat, re-joining the big club on Sunday and swatting a three-run bomb against Astros. He followed that up with a double in last night’s victory, driving in one and coming around to score two more. That has been Fraley’s standard throughout the month, with the 28-year-old compiling a .714 slugging percentage across 33 plate appearances in June.
Fraley has the added advantage of taking on righty Connor Seabold. Most of Fraley’s run production has come against right-handed pitchers, and Seabold serves them up for everybody. The Reds’ win streak should improve to 11, and Fraley will be a big reason why.
