DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for Phoenix: Fantasy NASCAR Strategy and Picks for the Straight Talk Wireless 500

NASCAR heads to Phoenix for the first non-drafting oval race of the 2026 Cup Series season.

Phoenix is a one-mile, short-flat track that will be using the new 750-horsepower package and lower downforce, which should produce some more tire wear, and that’s exactly what we saw in practice.

We also saw a few tires go down in practice, but that’s more on the teams pushing the limits on tire pressure to see what they can get away with, and I don’t expect a “tire race” today.

Instead, I expect a standard oval race. Some hard racing, track position being important, and 1-3 dominators being needed in our DFS lines with 312 laps scheduled for drivers to claim dominator points.

Make sure to check out my practice FLAGS data for Phoenix, as it’ll help guide you on who was fast in practice.

Additionally, you can check out my NASCAR projections in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

My projections, along with Stephen Young’s from RotoGrinders, are available in our NASCAR DFS package. You can read more about what the package entails here.

Let’s not skip the best part, my Perfect% metric, a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 250,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

So, without further ado, here’s my strategy guide and NASCAR DFS picks for the Straight Talk Wireless 500 at Phoenix Raceway.

Straight Talk Wireless 500 Cash Game Picks

Ryan Blaney ($11,200): It might be a bit risky putting Blaney here at such a steep price tag, but he did run the second fastest FLAGS in practice behind only teammate Austin Cindric, and Blaney has just flat out been better than Cindric at Phoenix (and at short flats in general).

The additional tire falloff from the new horsepower and downforce should also play right into Blaney’s hands, as he’s typically excelled on the long run, especially here at Phoenix as well as Martinsville.

Joey Logano ($9200): Yes, I’m stacking the big two Penske drivers in cash, as polesitter Joey Logano was third in practice FLAGS and has the early edge to the dominator points as well as the preferred pit-lane selection.

Blaney and Logano have both won at Phoenix in the current Ford body style, and Logano’s $2000 discount to Blaney makes them both viable as cash-game plays.

Bubba Wallace ($7200): My model isn’t quite as high on Wallace as I am, which is why I’m specifically writing him up here so that you get him in your cash-game rosters despite the model.

Wallace ended up fifth or sixth in practice FLAGS depending which of the two metrics you use, and he was either fourth or sixth on the long run, again depending on whether you count the speed-based or the rank-based method as your preferred method of choice.

By starting 28th, he gives us a ton of place-differential potential should he match that practice speed in the race.

Straight Talk Wireless 500 Tournament Picks

Dominators: Like I said, we’ll want 1-3 dominators per lineup, usually two and occassionally one or three. Here are my top dominators by likelihood of dominating:

1. Joey Logano
2. Ryan Blaney
   
   (intentional gap left to show tiers)
   
3. Kyle Larson
4. Austin Cindric
5. Christopher Bell
6. William Byron
7. Denny Hamlin

There’s a clear top two for me as you can see, but after that it’s pretty murky, as I can make an argument for any of the next five in that order.

Carson Hocevar ($7700): The No. 77 driver is $7700 and starts seventh, and as luck would have it, he also ranked seventh in speed-based, long-run FLAGS in practice.

However, he was even quicker on the short run, posting the second-best peak pace and a top-four overall FLAGS.

My de-teamed data shows that Hocevar is actually one of the top drivers at Phoenix; he just doesn’t drive for a top team. But if Spire has made improvements in the offseason (and early returns are promising), he could legitimately be a surprise driver in victory lane.

I have his optimal near 20%, but his ownership is projected just north of 10%.

He’s definitely a big-field tournament kind of play or a qualifier play, but I think you can get away with avoiding him in smaller tournaments or tournaments that are less top-heavy.

Michael McDowell ($6100): I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Hocevar’s teammate McDowell, who starts 16th and didn’t appear to be all that great in practice FLAGS, sitting in the bottom half of the field.

But one thing that’s almost impossible to capture is the track condition differences between the first and second practice groups.

My practice FLAGS adjusts for that, but in some cases it’s almost impossible to adjust enough, and I think this is one of those cases.

Add in McDowell’s track history, where he’s been strong at finishing despite middling pace, and that’s the kind of driver that we want in tournaments — one who is fast enough to stay on the lead lap but doesn’t “pop” in practice, then finds a way to finish toward the front despite that middling speed.

I think my model is too high on McDowell, but I agree directionally that he’ll probably be under-rostered for the race.

Pictured: Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney
Photo credit: Mark J. Rebilas, Imagn