DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for Martinsville: Fantasy NASCAR Strategy and Picks for the Cook Out 400

The NASCAR Cup Series makes its way to Martinsville Speedway for this weekend’s Cook Out 400.

Last weekend at Darlington, my practice FLAGS metrics led me to a Fantasy Racing World Championship qualifier spot, and a FantasyLabs subscriber won over $40k by tying for first in the main DraftKings contest.

We’ll look to keep the momentum going at the half-mile paperclip, where track position, pit stops, and track history matter just as much as this weekend’s practice FLAGS data for Martinsville.

With 400 laps scheduled, you’ll absolutely need at least one dominator, but more typically 2-3 dominators is the play.

To see the top dominators, check out my NASCAR projections in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

My projections, along with Stephen Young’s from RotoGrinders, are available in our NASCAR DFS package. You can read more about what the package entails here.

Let’s not skip the best part, my Perfect% metric, a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 250,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

So, without further ado, here’s my strategy guide and NASCAR DFS picks for the Cook Out 400 at Martinsville Speedway.

Cook Out 400 Cash Game Picks

Denny Hamlin ($11,000): Hamlin is the clear No. 1 play in my model, topping floor, ceiling, and median metrics as well as having the highest Perfect% among all drivers.

That makes him a clear start in cash games after starting on pole, ranking inside the top six in FLAGS.

He was this race’s winner last year, and he starts from the best spot, which should grab him a large chunk of dominator points.

Austin Dillon ($5600): We’ll need salary relief in what should be a top-heavy week, and that starts with Austin Dillon.

The Richard Childress Racing driver starts 30th, which elevates his floor, and while there may be concerns about getting lapped early, his speed might carry him through the field enough to avoid such a scenario.

Dillon ranked seventh in speed-based FLAGS and eighth in rank-based FLAGS, and he displayed top-five consistency as well.

That’s a recipe to move forward and pick up big place differential.

Joey Logano ($9000): I think a lot of people are going to put Ryan Blaney, William Byron, Chase Elliott or Kyle Larson among their top cash-game options after Hamlin.

Those are all fine options, and it’s definitely possible to sneak one of those names into your cash-game lineup, but before I get a second one of those drivers in, give me Joey Logano as a way to get more balanced, because if any of those other big names are in your lineup and they don’t dominate, it could be a struggle to cash.

Logano was quite possibly the best driver over the long-run.

That blue line in the graph above, that’s Logano. Notice he had the best group-adjusted lap times after around lap 45 among the other drivers that ranked inside the top-six in speed-based FLAGS.

Martinsville tends to have long runs, and it doesn’t often end under a short run (although it can), and that favors Logano’s long-run pace and low tire degradation.

One of those other options I mentioned in the Logano section: Honestly, you could make a case for any of them, but my preferred choice would be Larson, who I think fits in well just based off salary construction, and he ranked No. 1 in practice FLAGS.

By starting 13th, he also provides the second-highest floor of the quartet after Blaney, but it’s very close and you save a couple hundred bucks.

Cook Out 400 Tournament Picks

Dominators: Like I said, we’ll want 1-3 dominators per lineup, usually two or three. Here are my top dominators by likelihood of dominating:

1. Denny Hamlin
2. William Byron
3. Ryan Blaney
4. Kyle Larson
5. Joey Logano
6. Chase Elliott

Joey Logano ($9000): Yes, I’m writing Logano up again because I have his Perfect% projected around 10% above his projected usage. My model might be a bit under on his projected usage, but I do think it’ll still come in well below the 31% projected optimal, making him a fantastic tournament play in addition to cash games.

Christopher Bell ($10,200): Bell didn’t stand out in practice, ranking behind Larson, Elliott, Bubba Wallace, Logano, Blaney, Hamlin, Ty Gibbs and even Austin Dillon in FLAGS.

But I think that’s going to keep his usage down, and I just cannot get over the fact that he has, by far, the best pit crew on pit road.

That’ll likely gain him spots and put him near the front thanks to the all-valuable track position.

Bell had really nice long-run pace and consistency as well, jumping ahead of three of the drivers in long-run pace that beat him in overall FLAGS.

Bubba Wallace and Ryan Preece ($8300, $8100): These two will be relatively chalky, but if I don’t write them up people might think I don’t like them. I do…just not as much as I think they’ll be rostered.

Both are fine in all formats.

Justin Allgaier ($6800): Allgaier continues to fill in for Alex Bowman in the No. 48 Hendrick Motorspots car, and I think he’s poised for a second-straight strong run at Martinsville after taking home Saturday’s NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series win at the track.

Allgaier moved from 23rd in overall FLAGS to ninth if we just look at the long run. He didn’t have elite peak speed, but that’s likely why he qualified in the bottom half of the field in 21st, but if he can take his top-tier equipment and match what he did in practice over longer stints, he could be in for a surprise top-10 finish to back up his Saturday win in the lower series.

John Hunter Nemechek and Cole Custer ($6100, $5100): Todd Gilliland is the other obvious play in the sub-$6500 range, and much like Bubba and Preece, I do like him in all formats.

But if you’re looking for a pivot, may I suggest Nemechek or Custer, depending on if you want to pivot up or down in salary.

Nemechek had solid long-run speed and very low degradation, but was plagued by awful consistency having to come in twice to pit during practice. Still, if they got that car right, he could be in for a nice day.

Custer is definitely in play in a stars-and-scrubs lineup, as he ranked midpack overall in FLAGS, including inside the top-six in peak pace. While I don’t place too much value on peak pace, if there are a couple of cautions, that’ll keep him on the lead lap starting 24th, which is all we’re asking for from him at his salary.

Custer does have some decent Martinsville history, finishing 18th or better in half his starts, including 17th in the most recent trip here.

Pictured: Denny Hamlin
Photo credit: Mark J. Rebilas