DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for Dover: Fantasy NASCAR Strategy and Picks for the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400

Dover Motor Speedway, AKA the Monster Mile, is a one-mile, concrete track that’s steeply banked at 23 degrees, making it a unique track for the NASCAR Cup Series.

With 400 laps scheduled, DFS players will definitely want 2-3 dominators in their lineups, as around 250-300 total dominator points will be up for grabs depending on the number of cautions.

As a unique track, Dover is tough to find direct comparisons, but by doing driver-by-driver comparisons each year of the Next Gen Era (2022-present), I’ve found that Dover’s most comparable track by average running position and driver rating is Nashville.

After that are Kansas and Charlotte in a slightly lower tier, and in a third tier below those two are Las Vegas and Pocono (which is a puzzling one as a 2.5-mile flat track). Pretty much every other non-drafting oval not named can just be lumped into “overall form”.

With practice and qualifying rained out, I think focusing mostly on Dover history is smart, but a good way to get different is to utilize those comparable tracks, especially Nashville, Kansas and Charlotte, which were all recently run back-to-back-to-back on the schedule.

In addition, Goodyear is bringing a brand new tire that was not tested, and with no practice, an element of unknown is in the air as a result.

Finally, Dover moves to mid-July where it’ll be hotter than in previous years when this race was run in late April or early May. That should lead to more passing, more searching for the optimal line, and a better race overall with better cars able to move to the front easier.

In my opinion, it’ll also put a premium on driver quality, with “wheelmen” and dirt track-type drivers benefitting, as they are able to adapt to the optimal line moving around more.

With no practice, there’s no practice FLAGS data.

But, be sure to check out my NASCAR projections in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

My projections, along with Stephen Young’s from RotoGrinders, are available in our new NASCAR DFS package. You can read more about what the package entails here.

Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

So, without further ado, here’s my strategy guide and NASCAR DFS picks for the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 at Dover Motor Speedway!

Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 DFS Core Picks

Instead of calling them cash-game picks, I’ll call them core picks, as these are picks I like in all formats. However, it’s important to note that very often core picks tend to go over-rostered in tournaments, so while they should still be used plenty, it may be prudent to sometimes go underweight on these drivers if you think they’ll be significantly over-rostered.

Ryan Blaney ($10,700): Blaney is one of those that could go over-rostered in tournaments, but he probably needs to be in your cash-game lineup, as he’s one of the big four this weekend in terms of my model’s win probability.

By starting 31st thanks to the qualifying rainout and having the second-lowest salary of the big four, he’ll raise your floor purely through place-differential potential.

However, his ceiling could be capped if he’s unable to grab the lead, and my model doesn’t fancy his upside, projecting his dominator points outside the top 10 drivers.

Noah Gragson ($5900): With so many high-dollar options in play thanks to the 400 laps, we need a punt, and Gragson fits the bill perfectly.

He’ll start 36th, meaning he’s almost guaranteed positive place differential.

And Dover is a fantastic track for Gragson. He finished sixth here last year, and earlier this year he grabbed two top-14 finishes at comp tracks Nos. 2 and 3 at Kansas and Charlotte. Last year he also finished 10th at Nashville, which is the top comp for Dover.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6200): Again, we’re going to need salary relief this week, and who better than the driver that finished second here just three years ago.

Stenhouse then finished 15th at Dover a year later, which would be 47 points just from finishing position and place differential thanks to his 34th-place start.

I think he can do it. Last year, Stenhouse qualified 17th and finished 10th in Stage 1 and ninth in Stage 2 until a wreck took him out in Stage 3.

If he avoids issues, he’s likely a top-20 car at worst.

Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 Tournament Picks

The Chases: Both Chase Elliott and Chase Briscoe are in line to potentially dominate thanks to the starting order putting them on the front row and shuffling three of the big four back in the starting grid.

With that said, it’s important to add some negative correlation between Elliott and Briscoe, because only one of the two can lead in the early going, which is when the big-name drivers will still be mid-pack or worse.

Elliott is going to be the higher owned of the two, but my model actually gives a slight nod to Briscoe in dominator potential. Part of that is due to his wide error bars, as he inherits the No. 19 car formerly drive by Martin Truex Jr., who was a master at Dover.

The last track the series went to where Truex was a master at — Sonoma — Briscoe brought the car home in second place. That was just last week.

Meanwhile, Elliott has a 4.7 average finish at Dover if we remove his two DNF results. We know he’s good here.

Personally, I think playing more Briscoe than Elliott is a wise move in a top-heavy tournament, but both are in play to lead in the early going. Briscoe has that “wheelman” vibe, which I think will help this weekend.

William Byron ($10,500): If it’s not the Chases, Byron is the driver from the big four who starts closest to the front.

Byron led the most laps here two years ago, and last year he led 36 laps and finished second in Stage 2 before getting in an accident.

My model has Byron neck-and-neck with Hamlin for the most dominator points, but Byron is $500 cheaper and starts closer to the front, so I like the value along with the upside at what’s projected to be a solid ownership discount too.

Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson: Let’s face it, you’re playing the other two of the big four in your tournament lineups as well.

But it may be wise to go underweight on them, as they have to fight through the field to varying degrees to get to the front and dominate while taking up the two richest salaries.

Alex Bowman ($8800): Bowman is a nice mid-tier option who fires off from 16th thanks to the qualifying rainout.

Bowman has an average finish of 6.4 over the last seven Dover races, including a win, a runner-up finish, and five top-five finishes during that span.

Josh Berry and Ryan Preece: I’ve had my eye on these two all week, as they were the only two bets I made on Action Network’s Running Hot motorsports betting podcast this week.

Dover is a monster (pun intended) track for Berry, with finishes of second, first, and second in the Xfinity Series. He backed that up with a 10th in 2023 and a 14th 2024 in the Cup Series despite running for the now-defunct Stewart-Haas Racing (SHR) in ’24.

Berry has leveled up this year a bit with Wood Brothers Racing, who has a technical alliance with Team Penske, so his ceiling is well inside the top 10.

Preece, meanwhile, has finished inside the top 10 at four of the five comparable tracks this year, and at the fifth track he took home a fourth-place finish last year, also with SHR.

It’s probably not wise to play both in your lineups, as there is some negative correlation with them starting 11th and 14th and pulling top-10 spots away from each other.

But one or the other has a great shot at ending up in the optimal lineup.

I have at least one making the optimal nearly 38% of the time, but I project them to combine for just under 25% ownership.

Pictured: Chase Briscoe

Photo credit: Andrew Nelles, Imagn