The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday has a five-game main slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Mika Zibanejad ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel) vs. San Jose Sharks
With several notable players available at center, it might be somewhat surprising to go with Mika Zibanejad, but the New York Rangers center is set up for success against the San Jose Sharks.
The Swedish center has points in three of his past four games but is underachieving relative to his production metrics. Zibanejad has eight shots over that sample but hasn’t recorded a goal, only notching three assists. The 28-year-old has been on the ice for the third-most scoring and second-most high-danger chances among Rangers forwards, skating on New York’s top line and powerplay unit.
The Rangers host the Sharks on the second night of a back-to-back, and Zibanejad should see his metrics progress.
Top Value
Trevor Zegras ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel) vs. Calgary Flames
The Anaheim Ducks are in a similar position as the Rangers on Friday night, as they host the Calgary Flames for a Pacific Division battle.
One of the biggest differences impacting the Ducks’ chances of success is that the Flames are starting backup goalie Dan Vladar on the second night. That affords Trevor Zegras and the rest of the Ducks offense a chance to increase output as they continue their recent upswing. Zegras has been one of Anaheim’s best forwards this season, posting the sixth-best expected goals-for percentage and third-best shots-for rating. That has helped the second-year forward put up 17 points through his teams’ first 22 games while skating on the powerplay and getting 88.1% of his starts in the attacking zone.
The Ducks have scored 10 goals over their past two games, and Zegras should have some luck in finding the back of the net tonight.
Wing
Top Play
Artemi Panarin ($7,200 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) vs. San Jose Sharks
We noted above that circumstances favor the Rangers as they host the Sharks on Friday night, and the biggest beneficiary could be Artemi Panarin.
The Rangers’ leading scorer is trending up as he’s recorded seven points over his past four games, with three multi-point outings. From an analytics perspective, Panarin has been one of the best in the NHL this season, posting a 61.6% expected goals-for rating and being on the ice for 235 scoring and 90 high-danger chances. That translates to 11.2 and 4.3 chances per game, respectively.
Panarin has 12 points in eight home games this season and should thrive against a tired Sharks team.
Top Value
Reilly Smith ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Coyotes
When the Vegas Golden Knights broke into the league, they premised their strong showings on balanced scoring. That continues to be the case, with 12 players posting an expected goals-for percentage above 50.0%.
Reilly Smith has been one of the Golden Knights’ most used forwards this season. The 30-year-old has played the second-most minutes among Vegas forwards and has the seventh-best expected goals-for rating on the team. What makes Smith’s metrics even more impressive is that he spends more time on the penalty kill than he does on the powerplay but contributes fantasy points on both ends of the ice.
The Knights are underachieving relative to their production metrics, but a meeting with the basement-dwelling Coyotes should be what they need to get back on track.
Defense
Top Play
Alex Pietrangelo ($6,800 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Coyotes
We can’t talk about the Golden Knights without talking about all-world defenseman Alex Pietrangelo.
The Knights’ ice-time leader has played over 100 minutes more than the next closes player across all strengths. Pietrangelo ranks second on the team in blocked shots, first in powerplay assists, and third in shots on goal, highlighting his usage across all 200 feet. We’re starting to see increased output from Pietrangelo, as he’s recorded three points over his previous four games.
That increased productivity should continue against a Coyotes team that is entering a correction phase after overachieving relative to their metrics for a brief spell.
Top Value
Nate Schmidt ($5,400 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) vs. New Jersey Devils
The Winnipeg Jets host the New Jersey Devils, amid a downturn in their defensive metrics. Look for the Jets to exploit the team-friendly matchup and Nate Schmidt to factor into the scoring.
Schmidt has the fifth-best expected goals-for rating on the team, sitting tops among defensemen. The 30-year-old gets powerplay time and has been on the ice for the seventh-most scoring chances and fourth-most high-danger chances, despite ranking ninth on the team in offensive zone starts. His 11 assists are tied for the team lead, and Schmidt has more powerplay points than any other Jets player.
The Jets could run up the score tonight, and Schmidt could easily surpass his fantasy ceiling.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Connor Hellebuyck ($8,200 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) vs. New Jersey Devils
Connor Hellebuyck’s recent performances are incompatible with the outcomes we see from the Jets, and the American goalie should start to see the wins piling up behind him.
Hellebuyck has been outstanding over his recent outings, stopping 93.1% of shots or more in nine of his past 10 starts. The former Vezina Trophy winner has a cumulative 93.4% save percentage and 2.15 goals-against average over that span but has only four wins. Hellebuyck has been outstanding at home throughout his career and has a 93.8% save percentage in his friendly confines this season. Target him as a progression candidate over his coming games.
The Jets should get back to their winning ways tonight, thanks to another A+ showing from Hellebuyck.
Top Value
John Gibson ($7,600 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) vs. Calgary Flames
The Calgary Flames are overachieving substantially compared to their road metrics and should start to see their stats crumble tonight against the Ducks. That should result in a strong fantasy performance from John Gibson.
Gibson has had a great start to the season but has seen his metrics dip over his recent sample. The 28-year-old has an 87.0% save percentage over his previous three games and a below-average save percentage in five of his past eight starts. That positions Gibson to turn the corner over his coming games, as he gets his save percentage back up towards average. It helps that the Ducks are playing at home tonight, as Gibson has a 93.4% save percentage playing at the Honda Center this season.
Calgary has the league’s best PDO on the road this season, placing them on a collision course with regression. That benefits Gibson and the Ducks on tonight’s fantasy slates.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
There are a few teams heading into tonight’s contests under ideal circumstances, and based on our projections, the Rangers land as our notable stack on Friday’s slate.
We noted above the rationale for including Zibanejad and Panarin as top plays on forward; however, the stack we are highlighting from our lineup builder pairs Zibanead with Chris Kreider upfront. Kreider is the Rangers’ analytics superstar, as he leads the team in expected goals-for rating across all strengths. The forwards spend time together at five-on-five and with the man advantage, elevating their fantasy appeal. Adam Fox remains the Rangers’ top option on the blue line and continues to build off his Norris Trophy-winning campaign from last season. Igor Shesterkin is the Rangers’ projected starter and has a 12-3-2 record and 93.5% save percentage to start the season.
In total, the Rangers stack projects as a top option on tonight’s slate, which is reflected in the betting market, that has them installed as -210 favorites.
