The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday has a seven-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Aleksander Barkov ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Coyotes
The Florida Panthers have been one of the best offensive teams in the league this season, and Aleksander Barkov is their leading goal-scorer. Barkov projects as a top option on Friday’s slate.
Barkov has the receipts to back up is stellar play to start the season. The 26-year-old averages 4.4 scoring and high-danger chances per game across all strengths, resulting in a 59.8% expected goals-for rating while starting only 47.7% of his shifts in the attacking zone. Most of Barkov’s goals have come at five-on-five, but the Finnish center skates on the team’s top powerplay unit and adds fantasy points with blocks in his own end.
Only four teams have given up more goals than the Coyotes this season, and they’ll have a hard time limiting Barkov and the Panthers tonight.
Top Value
Elias Pettersson ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel) vs. Winnipeg Jets
The Winnipeg Jets are in a tough spot tonight. Their inter-divisional contest against the Vancouver Canucks comes on the second night of a back-to-back, and they started their primary goalie, Connor Hellebuyck, last night. That sets the Canucks up to go after their third straight win under new head coach Bruce Boudreau.
Elias Pettersson continues to underachieve relative to his metrics, being on the ice for six fewer goals than expected and sitting with a PDO just below 1.000. That implies that Pettersson is a progression candidate as his actual output starts to catch up with expected metrics. The Swedish center is among the best on the Canucks, with the third-rated expected goals-for percentage getting an astounding 84.0% of his zone starts in the attacking zone.
The Jets could be playing on their heels against a Canucks team that has some momentum. We like Pettersson to shine on Friday night.
Wing
Top Play
Artemi Panarin ($6,700 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel) vs. Buffalo Sabres
Few teams have been able to slow down Artemi Panarin this season, and that’s going to cause a problem for the Buffalo Sabres, who have allowed 22 goals over their past four games.
Panarin’s tremendous play is also reflected over his recent sample, a six-game span in which he’s recorded 12 points. The two-time All-Star has recorded three multi-point games over that span, averaging 24.7 fantasy points over that stretch and going above-average in four of six games. Four of Panarin’s 12 points have come on the man advantage, and he’ll have a chance to improve those tallies against the Sabres’ 23rd-ranked penalty kill.
This salary on DK puts Panarin into value status, and we’re expecting his recent hot streak to continue.
Top Value
Mark Stone ($5,500 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Flyers
Granted, Stone is only a value play on DK slates, but he’s not worth passing up on either platform against the defensively inept Philadelphia Flyers.
The Vegas Golden Knights recently returned to full strength, and their output is starting to catch up with production. The Knights have recorded 20 goals over their past four games, and Stone is figuring prominently in the scoring. The 29-year-old has recorded six points over those four games, putting two shots on target in three of the four games.
The Flyers have given up at least 10 high-danger chances in all but two games this season, which should facilitate Stone continuing his torrid pace.
Defense
Top Play
Dougie Hamilton ($7,500 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) vs. Nashville Predators
The New Jersey Devils welcome the Nashville Predators to town after Nashville posted a third-period comeback against the New York Islanders on Thursday night. The Preds started their backup goalie in that contest, but it’s their primary goalie, Juuse Saros, that has struggled on the road this season.
Saros has an 89.9% road save percentage this season, going 3-3-1. That should allow the Devils’ output to catch up with their production metrics, and Dougie Hamilton will be leading the charge. Hamilton has delivered two or more shots on net in five of his past six, eclipsing four shots in four of those six games. The 28-year-old leads the Devils’ defense corps in expected goals-for percentage and has been on the ice for more scoring and high-danger chances than any other player.
Hamilton is a do-it-all defenseman for the Devils, accumulating fantasy points in both ends of the ice. He projects as a top option on the blue line tonight.
Top Value
Samuel Girard ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,00 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Red Wings
The Colorado Avalanche’s lineup is loaded from top to bottom, resulting in some players with low to mid-range salaries with tremendous upside. Samuel Girard is who we are keying in on tonight against the Detroit Red Wings.
Girard has been trending up over his past five games, recording four points, two of which came on the powerplay, 12 shots, and four blocked shots. The Avs trust their young defenseman in any circumstance, giving him time across all strengths, averaging 21:39 ice time per game. That’s given Girard a platform to put together fantasy points in the attacking and defending zones, elevating his fantasy ceiling.
The Wings are playing their third game in four nights, and the Avs will be ready to continue their dominant play, featuring Girard as an inexpensive defensive option with a high fantasy ceiling.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Sergei Bobrovsky ($8,400 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Coyotes
One regulation loss and two overtime losses are the only blemishes on Sergei Bobrovsky’s resume 16 games into the season. The Russian netminder will have a chance to improve on that record against one of the worst teams in the league.
Based on our projections, Bobrovsky ranks as one of the top goaltenders available tonight, and that’s reflected in his season-long metrics. Bobrovsky is stopping 92.0% of shots faced this season, including 90.0% of powerplay shots, 87.0% of high-danger chances, and 89.4% of scoring chances, all of which are above career norms. Consequently, Bobrovsky has 4.0 goals saved above average through his first 16 starts of the season.
The Coyotes aren’t a team to push the pace offensively, putting Bobrovsky in a good position to reach his fantasy ceiling.
Top Value
Thatcher Demko ($8,000 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel) vs. Winnipeg Jets
The Canucks player who has benefitted most from the coaching change early is Thatcher Demko. Boudreau has emphasized better defensive zone coverage since landing in Vancouver, and that should help Demko continue his strong play.
Demko has stopped 66 of 67 shots over his past two outings, thanks to fewer quality chances allowed. The Nucks have allowed 11 high-danger chances at five-on-five in those two games combined, also holding their opponents to a combined 43 scoring chances. Demko has been trending upward over his recent sample, winning four of his past five games, and he should continue to benefit from the regime change.
The Jets haven’t attempted more than six high-danger chances in any of their past four road games. In combination with the Canucks improved defensive play, Demko could easily reach his fantasy ceiling on Friday night.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
The Avalanche are in a team-friendly spot on Friday night, hosting the Wings on the second night of a back-to-back, playing their third game in four nights. The Avs have a number of four-player stacks that rate highly in our projections, and we’re highlighting our favorite combination.
Nathan MacKinnon has been an absolute unit over his recent stretch, recording eight points over his previous five games. Pairing him with five-on-five and powerplay linemate Gabriel Landeskog is a strong correlation play, as both forwards can be involved in the same goal. Cale Makar is the Avs’ go-to defensemen in the attacking zone and continues to display some of the best advanced metrics in the league. As always, the Avs’ projected starter is Darcy Kuemper and is included in our stack. The Wings are coming into tonight’s contest well-skated and won’t throw a ton of offensive pressure on Kuemper.
The betting market confidence is high on the Avs tonight, with Colorado entering the contest as meaty -340 favorites. That confidence is reflected in our projections, rating the Avs stack as one of the best available.
