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NFL DFS Stacks Breakdown, Divisional Round: Expect a Shootout in Kansas City


Using our Stacking tool found within our Player Models, this piece identifies some of the top stacks of the weekend. Check out our Correlations page as well to find hidden edges in stacking positions and games.

Quarterback + Wide Receiver

  • Nick Foles: $5,400 DraftKings; $7,700 FanDuel
  • Alshon Jeffery: $5,800 DraftKings; $7,400 FanDuel

If you’re looking to attack the final game of the slate with a contrarian stack, start with this pairing. Most of the ownership on this slate is likely to flock to the first game of the weekend, when the Colts take on the Chiefs. This contest between the Saints and Eagles, however, has the second-highest game total at 50.5 (see live odds here).

The spread opened at Saints -10 and has already moved to -8, indicating that sharp bettors are fans of the Eagles early in the week. The Saints have the worst remaining pass defense in the playoffs based on Football Outsiders’ DVOA (22nd), and Foles just performed admirably against the best defense in the league.

The key for Foles? Getting the ball out of his hands quickly.

The Saints also have a strong defensive line, ranking inside the top five in sacks and top 10 in quarterback hits. If Foles can continue to neutralize that strength from opponents, he will be able to dice up a below-average secondary — the Saints are bottom 10 in Pro Football Focus coverage grades.

New Orleans is also last in DVOA against deep passes. Jeffery is the only Eagle receiver with an average depth of target above 10 yards under Foles. Jeffery’s aDOT is all the way up at 15.3. Jeffery has also seen the second-most targets in the offense over the past four games, but leads the team in receiving yards by 184.

Running Back + D/ST

  • Todd Gurley: $8,000 DraftKings; $9,200 FanDuel
  • Los Angeles Rams: $3,000 DraftKings; $5,000 FanDuel

Gurley hasn’t been this cheap on DraftKings since October 2017, and you have to go all the way back to the 2016 season to find him this cheap as a home favorite of at least five points. There’s a significant discount being applied here, at least partly due to him not playing in a game since Week 15.

Dallas also owns one of the NFL’s five best rush defenses, but this hardly matters for a back in this game script and offensive role.

The Rams are the second-biggest favorites on the week at 7.5 points, and could close as the biggest if the aforementioned Eagles-Saints line continues to move. The Rams are getting 45% of betting tickets in this game as of writing, but 58% of the money.

Attacking a defense as a large favorite means acquiring plenty of opportunities for sacks and takeaways. Dak Prescott’s regular-season sack rate of 9.6% was the sixth-worst in the NFL. And for his career, his interception rate is over 4.5 times worse in losses versus wins.

Quarterback + Wide Receiver + Tight End + Opposing Tight End

  • Andrew Luck: $6,200 DraftKings; $8,500 FanDuel
  • T.Y. Hilton: $6,700 DraftKings; $7,900 FanDuel
  • Eric Ebron: $5,500 DraftKings; $6,600 FanDuel
  • Travis Kelce: $7,000 DraftKings; $7,500 FanDuel

This weekend’s slate kicks off with what is by far the highest total of the Divisional Round.

Indy is a 5-point road underdog, but the game total is all the way up at 57 points. The Chiefs are fourth in both average fantasy points and average plus/minus allowed to opposing quarterbacks this season. And while Luck is traditionally thought of as having extreme negative road splits, a lot of that comes from how fantastic he is at home.

Luck has still posted a fantastic plus/minus on the road this season, and he could be lower owned than expected due to the perception around his abilities on the road.

Hilton and Ebron have combined for 41% of Luck’s targets since Week 14. The Chiefs are 25th in DVOA against tight ends, and just 21st in DVOA against deep passes. Hilton is one of the best deep threats in the NFL. His price has also dropped $1,100 from last week on DraftKings, while Dontrelle Inman’s has gone up.

Hilton is a good way to take advantage of recency bias.

The Colts have allowed the least amount of yards per pass attempt on deep passes this season according to Pro Football Reference. This does not appear to be a good spot to run it back with Tyreek Hill. Instead, fantasy gamers should target Kelce, as the Colts rank 29th in DVOA against tight ends.

Be sure to check out our industry-leading NFL News and Models, along with our Multi-Lineup Builder, Stack builder, ownership projections and more. Also, make sure to check out our other tools for the 2018 season, including the Matchups pageDFS Contests DashboardNFL Ownership page, and NFL Correlations page.

Pictured above: Nick Foles, Alshon Jeffery
Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports