Like any healthy market, price fluctuations are expected for players in daily fantasy football. Exploring those fluctuations can often reveal bargain players to target after down weeks or players that are rising too high in price above future expectations.
Each week, we will analyze one player at each position that has notably increased and decreased in price.
Notable NFL DFS Price Increases
Jared Goff, QB (Detroit Lions) Week 13 DraftKings Price $5,300; Week 14 DraftKings Price $5,600
The Lions are making some late-season noise with four wins in their last five games. Goff has been up and down this season in fantasy production but is on a recent upswing with two straight positive Plus/Minus results.
Goff is on track for his highest QB Rating since the 2018 season and seems to have developed a prime connection with wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown. With rookie Jameson Williams joining the huddle for Detroit, Goff’s weapons will only get faster and more dangerous.
The Vikings give up a ton of yards through the air but are stingy in the red zone. Goff could be a good value this weekend if he can find a way to get a couple of touchdown tosses.
Tony Pollard, RB (Dallas Cowboys) Week 13 DraftKings Price $6,400; Week 14 DraftKings Price $6,700
Pollard has emerged as a dependable fantasy option this season, despite continuing to share the backfield with Ezekiel Elliott.
In four of his last five games, Pollard has totaled at least 24 DraftKings points and has eight touchdowns in that span. He is consistently receiving 15+ touches with an incredibly efficient 5.8 yards per rush on the season.
His price has plateaued in this mid-$6,000 range around the back end of the top-10 running backs. That seems to be fair value for his production, which ranks 10th in the league in fantasy points per game at the position.
DK Metcalf, WR (Seattle Seahawks) Week 13 DraftKings Price $6,700; Week 14 DraftKings Price $7,100
The Seahawks have been one of the biggest surprises of the NFL season thus far after the departure of Russell Wilson. Fears that Geno Smith may not be able to get the ball to their duo of talented wideouts have been wiped away as both Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett are within the top 15 fantasy points scorers at wide receiver.
Metcalf has two straight 20+ DraftKings point performances with 19 catches on 23 targets in that span. With his consistent high volume, Metcalf is becoming a high-floor, high-upside play each week.
His salary has now crossed the $7,000 threshold for the first time this season indicating higher expectations this weekend against Carolina, but be careful. The Panthers defend well against the pass, allowing just 6.2 yards per attempt, and the Seahawks have a fairly low implied point total.
Pat Freiermuth, TE (Pittsburgh Steelers) Week 13 DraftKings Price $4,300; Week 14 DraftKings Price $4,500
No tight end topped the 15 fantasy point mark last week, making it difficult to have many meaningful price jumps.
At least Freiermuth seems to be finding some consistency in targets with rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett, but it would be nice if he could get some red-zone looks.
Freiermuth hasn’t scored in his last nine games but has managed five positive Plus/Minus games in that stretch. For a mid-tier tight end option, fantasy owners can certainly do worse.
Notable NFL DFS Price Decreases
Patrick Mahomes, QB (Kansas City Chiefs) Week 13 DraftKings Price $8,300; Week 14 DraftKings Price $8,000
Considered one of the top quarterbacks in both the NFL and fantasy football, Mahomes had a rare price drop this week as the Chiefs prepare to take on an impressive Broncos defense.
Mahomes is the number one quarterback in both total fantasy points and points per game at the position in 2022 but has just a single passing touchdown in each of his last two games. Last week, he posted his lowest completion total (16) and passing yards (223) of the season against the Bengals.
The Broncos have allowed the second-lowest points scored in the NFL and are tied for the second-lowest yards allowed per play. This may be a week to stay away from Mahomes as a top-tier option in lineups.
Jeff Wilson Jr., RB (Miami Dolphins) Week 13 DraftKings Price $6,100; Week 14 DraftKings Price $5,500
Wilson Jr. disappointed against his former team this past Sunday as he logged his lowest snap count (17) of the season. He finished with just one rushing attempt for three yards and zero catches on two targets.
San Francisco also shut down his backfield mate and fellow former 49ers running back, Raheem Mostert. He fared slightly better with 30 rushing yards on seven attempts.
If you believe this was a blip on the radar for Wilson Jr., this could be a solid buying opportunity as the Dolphins take on the Chargers this week. Miami’s high-powered offense has the potential for lots of scoring opportunities near the goal line.
Look for Wilson Jr. to bounce back this week.
Deebo Samuel, WR (San Francisco 49ers) Week 13 DraftKings Price $6,600; Week 14 DraftKings Price $6,100
The Jimmy Garoppolo injury will certainly have an effect on the entire 49ers offense with Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy taking over the huddle. Add that to Samuel’s already disappointing fantasy stretch this season, and there is a lot to worry about here.
Since the trade for Christian McCaffrey, Samuel has topped 13 DraftKings points just once and finished with four negative Plus/Minus results out of five games. His lone touchdown in that span came on the ground, where he has at least continued to see two to four attempts per game.
Kyle Shanahan may dial up more short, high-conversion passing attempts with Purdy in the game that could lead to some extra targets for Samuel, but there are still too many mouths to feed in an offense that knows it can rely on Nick Bosa and the defense to hold opponents to low point totals.
George Kittle, TE (San Francisco 49ers) Week 13 DraftKings Price $5,000; Week 14 DraftKings Price $4,300
See above. Kittle is another weapon in the 49ers offense that has been muted from lofty expectations.
Kittle has just five catches for 48 yards in his last two games combined. In the seven games that he has not found the end zone, Kittle has just one double-digit DraftKings point total. He has descended into the touchdown-dependence category and now has a seventh-round quarterback taking over the helm.
Once considered a top-tier tight end this season, Kittle has fallen to sixth in salary at the position this week…and that may be too high.
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