There’s an obvious appeal to picking first in fantasy football drafts. You get your pick of the litter, and in years when there’s a league-breaking player, that can be enough to take you to a title.
However, that relies on there being one player who truly elevates themselves over the field and being able to identify them ahead of time. It also means most of your eggs are in one basket, since you won’t get a second pick until the end of the second round.
That’s why in most years I prefer drafting at the end of the first round. While you have no hope of getting the consensus superstar — this year it’s Ja’Marr Chase — getting two of the top 15 or so picks can be even more valuable.
In this article, we’ll discuss the optimal strategy for those of us with late picks in season-long fantasy football, from the best way to start, as well as how to adapt your late-round strategy based on how your draft started.
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For the purposes of this article, I’m referring to picks 10-12 in a 12-team draft, or the last two picks in a 10-team league.
Rounds 1 and 2
I’m combining the first two rounds into one section, since you’ll be making the picks either very close together or consecutively depending on your draft slot.
This is also where it’s extremely important to understand your league’s scoring settings, as well as the default rankings of your league’s host. I’ll be separating my preferred starts based on league scoring type, with a section for PPR and non-PPR formats.
Full or Half PPR: One RB and One WR
While it’s tempting to load up at wide receiver early in your full-PPR leagues, doing so puts you in a tough position. By late Round 3 there’s a steep drop-off in the quality of running backs available. Our full PPR projections have just one back ranked between 19 and 34, with most of the spots occupied by wideouts.
For that reason, I’m targeting (in order of preference) De’Von Achane, Christian McCaffrey, or Ashton Jeanty with my late first-round pick. If all three are still available when your turn comes up, you could potentially wait until the early second round, but that’s fairly risky.
Our season-long projections have Achane as the best of that group, but his ADP is lower, so odds are you’ll be able to grab him as your top back.
From there, we have a group of wide receivers projecting within 15 points of each other, so simply taking the best available is fine. Brian Thomas, Drake London, and AJ Brown are all likely to be available early in the second round.
While their ADPs are well behind Amon-Ra St. Brown and Malik Nabers, we have them all projected fairly similarly, so it makes sense to wait until your second selection here, but pay attention to how your draft has gone. If your opponents have loaded up on WR, it might make sense to get one with your first pick, and vice versa at running back.
That is unless you have the last pick and you make your selections consecutively. In that case, the order doesn’t matter.
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Non-PPR: Two Running Backs
Unless there’s a massive run on the position in your league, in old-school non-PPR leagues the ideal start is two backs. In our non-PPR projections, 16 of the top 20 players are running backs.
Besides the players mentioned above, other backs I’d look to target here include backs like Jonathan Taylor and Josh Jacobs, who don’t contribute much in the passing game. That’s obviously less of a concern if receptions don’t score points.
The nice thing about this strategy is that we have a chunk of wide receivers grouped together in the 30s, so it’s likely you’ll be able to get at least one if not two of them with your third and fourth round picks. Those largely include the players we’re targeting in Round 2 of PPR drafts.
The only way I’d consider pivoting from this strategy is if Chase or Justin Jefferson falls to you in the late first, as those are the only receivers we have a first-round value on in non-PPR formats.
Rounds 3 and 4
My preferred strategy in rounds three and four is to take a star at one of the “onesie” positions. Finding a true separator at QB or TE can make a huge difference in leagues, especially if you already have a strong foundation at WR and RB.
For PPR leagues, tight ends are relatively more valuable. In Non-PPR leagues, we have more QBs with values around the round three/four turn, making that the logical spot to attack.
There’s nothing wrong with taking a top QB in PPR formats or a top TE in non-PPR formats, though, as they can still separate you from your competition considerably.
Onesie Position and a RB or WR
This one is a bit tricky, as we have two tight ends with values around the 2/3 turn, then a bit of a dead zone until late Round 5. In the perfect scenario, one of Brock Bowers or Trey McBride would fall to you late in the third round. On Yahoo, McBride’s ADP of around pick 29 means there’s a slight possibility.
At quarterback, our projections have the top four players as a cut above the rest of the group. That includes Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, and Jalen Hurts. Based on ADP, Hurts is likely to be the only one available with a late third-round pick, but your mileage may vary based on your league mates.
Odds are, at least one of the top tier of tight ends or QBs will still be available sometimes around the Round 3/4 turn. There’s a much bigger drop-off from those players to the next best options than there is between backs and receivers who typically get drafted in this range.
The good news is if you miss out on those players, you’ll at least have your pick of the second tier of backs and receivers. Some of my favorite targets in this range at running back include Kyren Williams, Breece Hall, and James Cook.
Williams and Cook are the clear lead backs for strong offenses, while Breece Hall is an explosive option who catches plenty of passes. At least one of the above should be available late in the third round.
Beyond that, this is where I want to grab a second receiver. My favorite option relative to his ADP in this area is DJ Moore, as I’m overall bullish on the Bears’ wide receivers. He’s unlikely to be available in the late fifth round, so he’s a priority for me in the fourth.
Marvin Harrison Jr. also has an ADP in this range and is one of my favorite breakout candidates. His 62 catches for 885 yards were a letdown relative to his top-five draft slot. However, wide receivers take time to develop chemistry with their QBs and learn the system, so he’s poised for a much better 2025.
Middle Rounds: Draft For Value
This is the point in the draft where having access to premium tools like our projections are especially important. We want to be drafting for value here, taking the best available players almost regardless of position.
If you were able to land two running backs you feel confident about in the first four rounds, this is where I’d load up on wide receivers. Especially in PPR leagues, their upside is much higher than running backs with a similar ADP, making them a better value.
I’m probably waiting on whichever “onesie” position I didn’t draft earlier, as the difference between the mid-tier QBs and TEs and the last players drafted is fairly insignificant. However, there are a few mid-range options with the potential to exceed that, especially at tight end.
Sam LaPorta was the overall fantasy TE1 as a rookie but had a down sophomore season. That was mostly due to a decreased passing rate from the 15-2 Lions, as well as some nagging injuries. With the Lions likely to take a step back and be forced to pass more and LaPorta healthy, he could be the top tight end again but is being drafted as TE4.
The case is similar for former Lion TJ Hockenson. He missed the first half of 2024 recovering from a torn ACL while playing for the 14-3 Vikings. Improved health and fewer team wins should both help him this year. He’s also due for some touchdown regression after being held scoreless on 41 catches last year.
Later Rounds: Draft For Ceiling
The double-digit rounds are the time in the draft where I tend to pivot more to drafting high-upside RBs.
Wide receivers need to be good in order to earn volume. Even if they’re thrust into a starting role, if they can’t get open, their QB won’t throw them the ball. Running back touches are given, though, and even less talented players can put up big fantasy scores.
You likely have at least 2-3 backs on your team at this point, who are all ideally starters for their real-life team. Now we’re looking for players who are one injury away from a starting role, with bonus points if they’re attached to a good offense.
I personally prefer drafting these “handcuff” backs that play on different teams than my starter, since that gives your roster way more upside.
Let’s say you started your draft with McCaffrey. By drafting his backup, Isaac Guerendo, if CMC goes down, you’ve now used a first and tenth round pick collectively to get somewhere around 80% of CMC’s healthy production.
If, instead, you draft Guerendo on a lineup that started with De’Von Achane, McCaffrey missing time means you have two high-end starters with similar draft capital invested. It’s a riskier strategy, since an Achane injury in this scenario leaves you with no backup plan.
We’re not playing to finish in the top half of our leagues though; we’re playing to win. With that in mind, it’s a far better strategy to shoot for the moon, especially since you can use a few picks in this range to select different backups.
Final Two Rounds: Team Defense and Kicker
Assuming your league uses either of these positions, there’s going to be a team or two in your draft that reaches for a top defense and maybe even a kicker. Don’t be that guy.
Both positions have extremely hard-to-predict scoring, as well as a small difference between the best and worst starting players. Our projections show just a 15-point difference between the top defense and the 12th best, so you’re losing out on less than a point per week by being the last person to draft one. The gap is even less at kicker (around 10 points), so that holds doubly true.
If your league doesn’t force you to draft a valid starting roster, I’d also consider stashing a few more backup RBs at this point. If no injuries occur in front of them by Week 1, you can simply drop them and grab the best available DST/kicker right before the season starts.
Plus, these are ideal positions to stream from. Kicker scoring heavily correlates with their team’s implied point total, while defensive scoring is correlated to the point spread (the more heavily favored a team, the better).
By keeping an eye on the Vegas lines, it’s usually fairly straightforward to get a starting-level player at this position on the weekly waiver wire.
Pictured: De’Von Achane
Photo Credit: Imagn
