Buckle up. This is going to get messy. We bided our time with last week’s schedule only to get to one of the juiciest slates of the season. Week 10 of the college football season is punctuated by a bevy of intriguing Top 25 matchups, noteworthy Power 4 contests, and underappreciated Group of 5 battles that have us salivating for all of Saturday’s action. Of course, we’re approaching this weekend through the fantasy lens, but even the most casual fan can appreciate what’s at stake for some of these teams.
We’ve got you covered for DFS purposes, highlighting our preferred players from Saturday’s main slate.
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Or if cash games are more your speed, you can build your lineups alongside our projections with our Lineup Builder. From there, you can hand-build your lineup or lock in a few guys and let the builder optimize the rest based on our projections.
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Let’s dive into this week’s slate!
CFB DFS Quarterback Picks
Bryson Daily (Army Black Knights): $9,200 DraftKings
It’s not every weekend that we get to highlight an Armed Forces program, but that’s exactly what’s in store for this week’s main slate. Bryson Daily leads his Army Black Knights into a pivotal grudge match against the Air Force Falcons. Army is coming in fresh into this service academy battle, and a win helps the Black Knights maintain their perfect record and playoff aspirations.
Army’s presumed dominance is reflected in the crooked betting line. The Black Knights are installed as decided -21.5 chalk against the Falcons, a number they could easily cover with Daily under center. Army’s quarterback does it all. Through seven games, the senior has thrown for 629 yards with a sterling 7-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. However, his best work comes on the ground in the Black Knights’ option offense. Daily has run for at least 110 yards in six straight games, bringing his season total up to 909 rushing yards. More impressively, he’s recorded 19 touchdowns this season, with five of those coming in Week 8’s triumph over the East Carolina Panthers.
Air Force doesn’t come close to matching what the Black Knights can do. The Falcons rank among the worst defensive teams in the country, giving up 409.0 yards and 31.0 points per game. Daily will exacerbate those defensive concerns with another slate-changing performance on Saturday. He leads our median and ceiling projections by a wide margin, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see Daily exceed the loftiest of our expectations.
Seth Henigan (Memphis Tigers): $7,600 DraftKings
Somehow, the Memphis Tigers have fallen off everyone’s radars. At the start of the season, the Tigers were pegged as one of the top Group of 5 teams in the country. A loss to the Navy Midshipmen in Week 4 resulted in the Tigers being thrown to the wayside, but the Tigers are deserving of more laudation heading into Week 10. We’re here to make sure that Seth Henigan gets all the credit he deserves, taking on the UTSA Roadrunners on Saturday.
There is a shortage of quality quarterbacks available on this week’s main slate, but few players can do it better than Henigan. The Texas native has the Tigers moving downfield with ease lately. Memphis has totaled 130 points over its last four outings, with 85 of those coming across the past two weeks. Not surprisingly, the Tigers’ increased scoring efficiency correlates with top-end production from Henigan. Memphis’ quarterback has completed 98-of-151 pass attempts across the four-game sample for a 64.9% completion rating. Further, he has one of the most high-volume approaches in college football, with Daily averaging 37.8 pass attempts per gmae.
Surely, that fantasy production will carry into Saturday’s battle against UTSA. The Roadrunners give up the 15th-most points in the FBS, matching that with an average of 392.0 yards allowed per game and also ranking in the bottom half of the country.
Preventing the pass has been the most vulnerable part of UTSA’s defense this season. They have been burned for an average of 293.1 passing yards per game, the sixth-most in the NCAA. That plays into Henigan’s advantage in Week 10. The senior should respond with one of the best performances on the main slate. Make Henigan a priority when you’re drafting your team.
CFB DFS Running Back Picks
RJ Harvey (UCF Knights): $9,300 DraftKings
The UCF Knights are back in action in Week 10, looking to avenge their heartbreaking loss to the BYU Cougars. UCF entered last week’s Big 12 contest as -2.5 chalk but failed to contain the unbeaten Cougars. Still, RJ Harvey did his part to keep the Knights competitive, and we’re anticipating another elite showing against the Arizona Wildcats at home.
Harvey remains one of the FBS’ top running backs. His 1,017 rushing yards are fourth most in the nation, churning out that top-end production on just 149 carries. That leaves Harvey with a meaty 6.8 yards per carry, a benchmark he could easily surpass against a road-weary Wildcats side. Moreover, the Knights running back has gotten better as the year goes on. Harvey has eclipsed 129 rushing yards in each of his last two outings, totaling 323 yards across the two outings. His production has come on just 41 carries, equaling 7.9 yards per rushing attempt.
Arizona has a very welcoming rush defense. So far this season, the Wildcats are giving up 163.6 rushing yards per game, watching those metrics deteriorate over their more recent schedule. The West Virginia Mountaineers torched Arizona for 203 yards on the ground last week, bringing the Wildcats’ three-game average up to 166.0 rushing yards per game.
Volume is one thing, but Arizona also looks terrible when we look at efficiency. Opponents are going for an average of 4.7 yards per carry against the Wildcats defense, amplifying Harvey’s outlook at home. We’re betting he maintains his current form and puts together the pre-eminent rushing performance on the main slate.
DJ Giddens (Kansas State Wildcats): $7,600 DraftKings
Offensive efficiency has driven the Kansas State Wildcats’ success this season, a hallmark that should carry into Week 10’s matchup against the Houston Cougars. Led by running back DJ Giddens, K-State is churning out the 27th-most yards and 33rd-most points this season. Still, those respective benchmarks of 423.4 and 31.6 represent the low bar for what to expect versus Houston.
Giddens has been the workhorse in an offense that has a clear preference for running the ball. Through their first eight games of the season, the Wildcats are calling rushing plays on 55.7% of their offensive snaps, the 37th-highest percentage in college football. Giddens is getting the bulk of those carries, toting the ball 145 times for 945 yards. Further, he enters Saturday’s Big 12 tilt operating in peak form.
The Wildcats’ junior has been a menace lately. Giddens has run for at least 102 yards in three of his past four outings, reaching 182 yards on two occasions. In total, he’s put up 528 rushing yards on 77 carries for a nice average of 6.9 yards per rushing attempt. Moreover, three of his four touchdowns on the season have come across the four-game sample.
Not surprisingly, the 3-5 Cougars have struggled to contain the run this season. Houston gives up an average of 4.3 yards per carry and 138.8 rushing yards per game. That plays into Kansas State’s strength and assures Giddens of reaching his fantasy ceiling on the main slate.
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CFB DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Jaylin Noel (Iowa State Cyclones): $5,900 DraftKings
DFS punters have a tough choice ahead of them. The unbeaten Iowa State Cyclones will try to maintain their perfect record against the Texas Tech Red Raiders in Week 10. We expect the hosts to turn to their passing game frequently, trying to exploit the Red Raiders’ most prominent defensive vulnerability. That means most people will have to choose between drafting Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. The Cyclones’ receivers are separated by a fraction of a point in our projections, but we give the edge to Noel in this Big 12 contest.
While both wide receivers have looked solid, Noel comes in $800 cheaper than his Iowa State teammate. Further, his most recent performance was one of the best in college football this season. Noel pulled down eight receptions on 17 targets against the UCF Knights last time out, going off for 153 yards. This wasn’t a one-off performance for the senior either. Noel has eclipsed the century mark three times this season and leads the team in receiving yards.
There’s no belaboring how bad the Red Raiders’ pass defense has been this year. Texas Tech gives up 280.0 passing yards per game, 14th-most in the country. Moreover, they allow a 60.8% completion rating and 8.0 yards per pass attempt, both of which are on the rise over their last three games. Look at last week’s box score against the TCU Horned Frogs as validation of just how bad the Red Raiders are. Three different TCU receivers had catches of at least 52 yards, with two of those players exceeding 75.
Of course, there’s an opportunity to draft both Cyclones receivers ahead of Saturday’s tilt. Still, we give the edge to Noel. His deep-threat ability plays well against Texas Tech’s porous pass defense, and he’s been a high-volume receiver since the start of the season. Drafting both Noel and Higgins insulates DFS punters from any variability or workshare issues. But if you have to choose, Noel is your guy.
Tetairoa McMillan (Arizona Wildcats): $8,600 DraftKings
The Arizona Wildcats desperately need to get their offense going. Losers of four straight, Arizona has fallen well short of its early-season offensive standard. Thankfully, they’ll have the opportunity to get back on track against UCF’s lackluster pass defense. As a result, we should expect big things from Tetairoa McMillan on the main slate.
McMillan has been a constant in an otherwise disappointing campaign. The senior leads the team with 57 receptions, 982 receiving yards, and five touchdowns, out-pacing his teammates by a substantial margin. His importance to the Wildcats offense is best encapsulated in his target share, with McMillan commanding a meaty 49.7% of the passing attempts from Noah Fifita.
While he was relatively dormant for a few weeks, McMillan broke out in a big way in Week 9. Against the West Virginia Mountaineers, the 6’5″ receiver went off for 202 yards on 10 catches. Further, he posted a tidy 71.4% catch rate while finding the end zone for the first time since Week 1.
That upward trajectory carries McMillan into Saturday’s clash versus the Knights. UCF has proven incapable of defending the pass, posting below-average marks of 7.8 yards per reception and 269.0 passing yards per game. Surely, McMillan will extend those woes en route to another slate-changing performance on Saturday.
Tez Johnson (Oregon Ducks): $7,700 DraftKings
We are abandoning our usual stacking play in favor of another elite wide receiver who is capable of single-handedly turning the fantasy tides. Tez Johnson leads the Oregon Ducks into a heated road battle versus the Michigan Wolverines in Week 10, and we expect Johnson and the Ducks to prevail.
As is typically the case, the top-ranked Ducks have flexed their offensive muscles en route to a perfect 8-0 start to the season. Naturally, their passing attack has been the foundation of their success. Oregon is averaging 300.0 passing yards per game this season, jumping to 308.7 over its last three. More importantly, Johnson commands the lion’s share of that production.
Entering Saturday’s Big Ten clash, Johnson has accounted for 638 yards on 63 receptions for eight touchdowns, all of which are team bests. Moreover, he’s riding a five-game touchdown streak into this tilt, highlighting his importance to the Ducks’ scoring and red zone offense.
Michigan has lost its championship luster. Opponents are poking holes in the Wolverines’ pass defense, accumulating 228.5 passing yards per game, 6.4 yards per reception, and a 62.0% completion rating, all of which relegate Michigan to the bottom tier of FBS teams. Ineffective pass coverage should let Johnson thrive once more, ending the day as one of the top-performing receivers in Week 10.
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