Thanks to the MLB All-Star Break, we have an extended opportunity to review fantasy trends from the first half of the season. For both cash games and guaranteed prize pools, stacking is an important tactic in daily fantasy baseball. Here are the five best pre-ASB stacks of 2018.
The Five Highest-Scoring Teams
Per our Trends tool, here are the five best MLB teams in terms of DraftKings points per game per batter (PGB):
- Red Sox: 8.27
- Cubs: 8.20
- Rockies: 8.05
- Yankees: 7.97
- Indians: 7.81
Hits, walks, and stolen bases matter, but total runs matter most. Each of these teams is top-six in total runs per game, and only Chicago is outside the top 10 in home runs. All of these teams are also top-10 in Plus/Minus (actual production minus salary-based expectation). There’s some subjectivity in the word “best,” but I’ve taken into account raw production, salary, ownership rates, location and pitcher handedness.
1. Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox are better against righties, but this year they’ve basically been a splits-agnostic team at home, where they’ve excelled. Hitters at Fenway Park have averaged the seventh-most PGB this season, and right-handed batters have done especially well there thanks to their 61 Park Factor (vs. 39 for lefties). At home these stacked batters have averaged +11.56 DraftKings PGB with a +2.41 Plus/Minus and 50.3% Consistency Rating.
- 1. Mookie Betts (R)
- 2. Andrew Benintendi (L)
- 3. J.D. Martinez (R)
- 4. Mitch Moreland (L)
- 5. Xander Bogaerts (R)
Only the Rockies have garnered a higher ownership rate this year (8.7%) than the Red Sox (7.3%), and these stacked batters have been especially popular at home (11.2%), but they’ve also outperformed with a 20% Upside Rating at Fenway. Even though a 1-5 Red Sox stack is likely to be chalky, it still might be worthy rostering.
2. Chicago Cubs
When the wind isn’t blowing out, Wrigley Field isn’t especially kind to hitters, but this year batters have done well there, averaging the fifth-most fantasy points in the league. The Cubs, though, have played about the same regardless of location, exhibiting almost nonexistent home/road splits, but they’ve been markedly better against lefties, thanks primarily to the right-handed heaviness of this stack.
- 1. Ben Zobrist (S)
- 3. Kris Bryant (R)
- 4. Anthony Rizzo (L)
- 5. Willson Contreras (R)
- 6. Javier Baez (R)
Why these five players? While Kyle Schwarber and Ian Happ are regular players with respectable ownership rates, they own a combined -0.80 Plus/Minus this year when batting in the top two-thirds of the order. Additionally, Albert Almora Jr. has done well so far, but he is likely to regress. Regardless of venue, these stacked batters have averaged 10.65 DraftKings PGB with a +2.10 Plus/Minus and 50.0 percent Consistency Rating against left-handed pitching.
3. Colorado Rockies
Unsurprisingly, no team has been better at home than the Rockies in 2018, but Coors Field carries by far the highest ownership rate of any MLB venue, and batters in Colorado are often priced up. Even so, the Rockies might be worth the investment at home.
- 2. Charlie Blackmon (L)
- 3. Nolan Arenado (R)
- 4. Carlos Gonzalez (L)
- 5. Trevor Story (R)
- 6. Ian Desmond (R)
Although this stack seems as if it would be chalky, it is somewhat contrarian in its refusal to use leadoff man DJ LeMahieu. On top of that, CarGo has had a paltry 6.2% ownership rate at home against lefties even though he has crushed in that situation along with his teammates. At Coors, these stacked batters have averaged an 11.31 DraftKings PGB with a +1.97 Plus/Minus and 50.6% Consistency Rating against lefties.
4. New York Yankees
While the Yankees have been better at home than on the road, they’ve managed as visitors to destroy lefties. Under those circumstances, these five stacked batters have provided an average of 12.69 DraftKings PGB with a +4.58 Plus/Minus and volatile 40.0% Consistency Rating.
- 1. Brett Gardner (L)
- 4. Giancarlo Stanton (R)
- 5. Gary Sanchez (R)
- 6. Aaron Hicks (S)
- 8. Austin Romine (R)
Although the Yankees tend to be expensive and chalky, this is a highly contrarian lineup in that it lacks slugger Aaron Judge, has a bottom-of-the-order batter in Romine, and features Gardner vs. lefties, against whom he’s had a 2.7% ownership rate this year.
5. Cleveland Indians
The Indians are basically the American League version of the Rockies: They destroy lefties at home — except with much lower ownership rates. At Progressive Field, these five stacked batters against lefties have averaged an immaculate 12.17 DraftKings PGB with a +3.42 Plus/Minus, 50.0% Consistency Rating and low 4.7% ownership rate.
- 1. Francisco Lindor (S)
- 2. Michael Brantley (L)
- 3. Jose Ramirez (S)
- 4. Edwin Encarnacion (R)
- 6. Jason Kipnis (L)
Despite the production this stack has enjoyed to date, not one player in it has an ownership rate of even 7% this year at home against lefties.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
Pictured above: Edwin Encarnacion (10) and Jose Ramirez (11)
Photo credit: Jim Young-USA TODAY Sports
