The last several weeks on TOUR have seen some big time events, and the season is really just ramping up with another WGC and The Masters on deck over the next several weeks. It seems to have left the Honda Classic as the odd tournament out as none of the Top 10 and just three of the Top 20 players in the world are set to tee it up. If you wait a few hours, that number may drop further as a rib injury hinders the top player in the field Daniel Berger, and Lee Westwood is understandably a little worn down after back-to-back weeks of playing in the final group on Sunday. If Berger were to back out, defending champion Sungjae Im would step in as the player with the best odds leading into the week.
We come in with some unknowns around the field, so my focus will be on the course and how it will set up for whoever pegs it this week. The biggest thing to know about PGA National is that it will play tough. Really tough. Especially with some strong winds expected this week. Part of the difficulty comes in the stretch of holes from 15-17 known as the Bear Trap. Last season, the field was 277(!!) shots over par on those three holes during the tournament. These three holes play as the fourth-most difficult group of holes on TOUR annually, and they will have a big say in who comes away as the champion down the stretch on Sunday.
Course Preview
PGA National (Champion) Palm Beach Gardens, FL
7,125-yard par 70
- Two par 5s, Four par 3s, 12 par 4s
- Average Green Size: 7,000 ft (larger than average for PGA TOUR)
- Bermuda grass greens
- 2-inch bermuda rough, overseeded with ryegrass
This event generally produces a winner at single digits under par and it’s simply a blood bath from a DFS perspective. It’s one of the rare weeks where you can virtually ignore course history altogether as the variance is all over the map. Players will finish Top 5 one year, then miss the cut by several shots the next. I’ll still give you those details below, but I am really taking it with a grain of salt this week. Part of the reason the variance is so high is due to the high scores that lurk around these holes. I will heavily weigh things like bogey and even double bogey avoidance this week, as being able to survive with pars will be a key factor at PGA National.
In my notes and research of results over the past few years, the PGA TOUR’s version of Ball Striking (Total Driving + Greens in Regulation) is a key stat this week. There is a need to be long enough off the tee to carry hazards, but also precise enough to miss in the right spot for the approach to the green. Being able to hit greens in regulation is part of avoiding disaster, and this will be a stat I will use to be a little outside of the box from others.
Course Horses (Last 5 Years)
Rickie Fowler (MC-2-MC-1-6)
The first example of the variance is one of the best course history players at PGA National in Rickie Fowler. He has missed the cut in two of his last three appearances, but also has three Top 10 finishes, including a victory at the event in 2017. Hey, maybe there is an every-other-year trend here…
Adam Scott (DNP-MC-13-14-1)
Several Australians seem to pop up at this event, and Adam Scott is a good example of that. He also missed the cut the last time he player the Honda Classic, but before that had three consecutive Top-15 finishes, including a win in 2016.
Byeong-Hun An (4-36-5-DNP-DNP)
Benny An got attention last week at The PLAYERS for all the wrong reasons, as he carded an 11 at the famed Par-3 17th. He will look to bounce back from that missed cut at an event in which he has made the cut three straight years, including two Top 5s.
Lucas Glover (MC-4-17-21-MC)
I am beginning to see a theme with ball strikers who have trouble putting (that’s being kind), as Lucas Glover also has a good stretch of results at PGA National. These three Top-25 finishes are sandwiched between missed cuts, but that is to be expected at this point.
Russell Henley (8-20-24-43-MC)
It seems as though Russell Henley may have figured out a path to playing the Honda Classic, as he has improved his result in each of his last four appearances. He will look to improve on his eighth-place finish from 2020.
Photo Credit: Sam Greenwood/Getty Images
Pictured: Rickie Fowler
