This fantasy preview is part of a preseason series by FantasyLabs Editor-in-Chief Matthew Freedman with contributions from Ian Hartitz and Joe Holka. Other pieces in the series are available on our Fantasy Football Preview Dashboard.
Tampa Bay head coach Dirk Koetter has done his best to reel in franchise quarterback Jameis Winston without taking away everything that makes his gunslinger mentality great. Interceptions come with the territory, but he has the talent to make big plays. The addition of DeSean Jackson complements Mike Evans and Cameron Brate perfectly, and it’s hard to understate the impact Jackson’s deep-threat ability should have on this offense. There’s only one problem: This team was at their best when they were run-heavy in 2016. For the Buccaneers, 2017 is about finding a balance, building on their 6-2 record in the second half of last season, and fighting for a playoff spot as Winston continues to develop.
Play-Calling Tendencies
After stops at San Francisco State (1985), UTEP (1986-1988), Missouri (1989-1993), Boston College (1994-1995), and Oregon (1996-1997) as an offensive coordinator, Koetter got his first college head coaching job at Boise State (1998-2000); he was also the head coach at Arizona State (2001-2006).
Koetter accepted his first NFL position in 2007, becoming the offensive coordinator for the Jaguars. In that first season, Jacksonville set franchise records for total points scored and yards gained en route to a 11-5 record. Due in part to Maurice Jones-Drew (NFL’s leading rusher in 2010), the Jaguars ranked third in the NFL in cumulative rushing yards over Koetter’s five seasons as offensive coordinator. In 2012, Koetter joined the Falcons as an offensive coordinator but was quickly signed to an extension a year later that brought him through the 2014 season. The journeyman became the Buccaneers offensive coordinator in 2015, but after Lovie Smith was fired, Koetter was promoted to head coach.
While the defense improved from 19th to fourth in DVOA and the team jumped to nine wins from six the year before, unfortunately they still failed to make the playoffs. The Bucs averaged 28.9 rush attempts over their last eight games (6-2 record) and 32.6 pass attempts. Those run/pass splits over the entire season would have made Tampa Bay a top-five team in running play percentage in each of the past two seasons.
Koetter didn’t make the best game management decisions last year, but another season balancing that and play-calling is something that he can improve. A Koetter Bucs squad has never finished outside the top-10 of run/pass splits and has averaged the 11th-fastest neutral pace over the past two seasons.
In 2017, it seems likely that Koetter’s offense will play at an above-average pace and run more than the average offense — which makes sense given their success last year doing so — but it’s possible the addition of Jackson changes the offensive philosophy as well. Even if they throw more than last year, we shouldn’t expect the Bucs to suddenly be top-10 in pass attempts or pass/run ratio.
2017 Roster
Clearly, Tampa Bay’s offseason focus was to give their franchise quarterback some big-time receiving upgrades using both free agency and the draft:
- QB: Jameis Winston
- RB: Doug Martin/Jacquizz Rodgers/Charles Sims
- WR: Mike Evans
- WR: Adam Humphries/Russell Shepard –> DeSean Jackson
- WR: Vincent Jackson –> Humphries/Chris Godwin
- TE: Cameron Brate –> Brate/O.J. Howard
- LT: Donovan Smith
- LG: Kevin Pamphile/Evan Smith –> Pamphile
- C: Joe Hawley –> Ali Marpet
- RG: Marpet –> J.R. Sweezy
- RT: Pamphile/Demar Dotson –> Dotson
The addition of D. Jackson from Washington, and his 16.9-yard Average Depth of Target (aDOT), gives the Bucs a true deep threat outside of Evans. While this addition doesn’t necessarily mean we will see a passing volume increase — that’s clearly the opposite of how things were trending in 2016 — it should elevate the team’s overall efficiency. With Martin suspended until Week 4, the backfield will probably have a similar feel to late last year when Rodgers was given a heavy dose of touches.
Whether it’s Brate (eight touchdowns in 2016) or Howard (drafted No. 19 overall) who emerges in the passing game, they will also be competing for complementary targets with Humphries (second-highest in 2016 WR snaps at 57.14 percent) and Godwin (2017 third-round pick). Regardless, any of these four options are likely a huge upgrade from the uninspiring Shepard and V. Jackson duo a year ago.
The offensive line changes are mostly shuffling, but the Bucs should also benefit from the return of Sweezy, who missed all of last season with a back injury. Although the Bucs are very weak on the left side — Smith and Pamphile had subpar 47.5 and 38.6 overall PFF grades last year — the cumulative unit could be a slightly better version than it was last year; they ranked 21st with 4.01 adjusted line yards per carry with a middle-of-the-pack 5.9 percent adjusted sack rate (Football Outsiders).
The rest of the NFC South could be finally improving on defense, and Tampa Bay will look considerably different in 2016:
- DE: Robert Ayers
- DT: Gerald McCoy
- DT: Clinton McDonald –> Chris Baker
- DE: William Gholston
- WLB: Lavonte David
- MLB: Kwon Alexander
- SLB: Daryl Smith –> Devante Bond
- CB: Brent Grimes
- CB: Vernon Hargreaves
- SCB: Jude Adjei-Barimah/Alterraun Verner/Javien Elliott –> Elliott
- SS: Bradley McDougald/Chris Conte –> Conte/J.J. Wilcox/Justin Evans
- FS: McDougald –> Keith Tandy
McCoy (team-leading 7.0 sacks) was a top-12 interior defender (Pro Football Focus) in 2016, and will anchor this defensive line yet again. This year they’re providing reinforcements with the signing of Baker, who will make the move to tackle. Ayers (6.5 sacks) rounds out this improving defensive line that should be much better against the run than it was in 2016, finishing 26th in Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (Football Outsiders).
Tampa Bay should be less of a funnel defense this year; their sixth-ranked pass DVOA could conceivably take a step backwards. Grimes was a top-five cornerback last year (PFF), but the drop-off in depth is massive with Hargreaves (93rd) as their second-best corner. The team also lost Adejei-Barimah in the slot to a fractured right patella and will now likely turn to Elliott, who hasn’t shown much more in the NFL than Hargreaves. Outside of Tandy, PFF’s 15th-ranked safety, the rest of the secondary is in disarray after moving on from Bradley McDougald. Conte has worked primarily with the starters alongside Tandy, but Wilcox, formerly of the Cowboys and the team’s highest-paid safety, could threaten for playing time. Evans also carries a second-round pedigree; the strong safety battle will be an interesting one to monitor.
Be sure to keep an eye on our NFL Matchups Dashboard as well as our NFL News feed to see how these units take shape and to track any injury updates.
Notable Players
The Bucs have some shiny new toys, but will they stick to the offensive philosophy that made them successful in the second half of 2016?
Jameis Winston, QB
Right now Winston has an average draft position (ADP) of 88.7 in DRAFT best ball leagues. He’s typically in a bit of a dead zone — clearly not in the top-tier but not necessarily a low-equity investment in drafts either. In season-long leagues, there are probably stronger pivot plays at wide receiver and running back available in that range, such as Pierre Garcon (76.7) or Kareem Hunt (94.9). Winston, however, will likely be a popular daily fantasy sports play most weeks.
In 2016, Winston averaged a solid 18.09 DraftKings PPG with a +0.54 Plus/Minus, 50.0 percent Consistency Rating, and 4.5 percent ownership rate (per our Trends tool). However, season-long stats rarely tell the entire story. Let’s break down Winston’s daily fantasy value into a 20-game sample with four equal quartiles (including the five-most recent games from 2015, and always excluding Week 17) to help visualize what kind of DraftKings investment he has been:
- 2015 (Games 11-15): 18.52 PPG, +3.54 Plus/Minus, 80.0 percent Consistency Rating, 8.0 percent ownership, 34.8 average team pass attempts, 25.8 average team rushing attempts.
- 2016 (Games 1-5): 19.02, +1.61, 40.0 percent, 2.3 percent, 41.4, 26.8
- 2016 (Games 6-10): 21.44, +4.08, 100.0 percent, 6.9 percent, 34.2, 33.2
- 2016 (Games 11-15): 15.06, -2.81, 20.0 percent, 4.9 percent, 30.8, 28.2
Preseason hype probably trumps recency bias, especially when people have an entire offseason to forget, but we would be unwise to ignore what exactly changed in Tampa Bay in the most recent two quartiles. In Winston’s most recent relevant 10-game sample (or final two quartiles), he threw the ball an average 32.5 times per game, but the team ran the ball 30.7 times per game. Over an entire season, that run split of 48.58 percent would have finished as the third-most run-heavy in the NFL behind the Cowboys (48.7) and Bills (48.62). Why else are these two most recent quartiles relevant?
- Tampa Bay’s newfound commitment to the run caused Winston’s pass attempts to decrease from 38.1 to 32.5 per game.
- Winston’s completion percentage improved from 58.3 percent to 63.1 percent over this same span.
- Most importantly, at least from a real-football perspective, the Bucs’ winning percentage doubled from 30 percent to 60 percent.
This year, Winston might warrant some speculative exposure as a contrarian option given his increased arsenal, but if his ownership gets out of control it may look sharp in hindsight to be underweight — given what this team wants to do on offense. FantasyLabs users can review ownership trends across guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) of various buy-in levels with our DFS Ownership Dashboard, which is reason enough to subscribe to FantasyLabs. Be sure to monitor our Vegas Dashboard to see how the market views Winston and the Bucs on a weekly basis.
Doug Martin, RB
A first-round pick a couple years ago, Martin tore his hamstring in Week 2 last season and wasn’t able to return until Week 10 after an in-practice setback. He was largely ineffective in his return, averaging 2.82 yards per carry (YPC) the rest of the way before a Week 16 benching. Via my Rushing Expectation methodology, Martin’s efficiency as a runner and receiver last year was in the 14th and 29th percentile of a 60-player sample. Will we get the 2015 or 2016 version of Martin this year? In games with at least 15 touches here’s how he performed those two seasons:
- 2015: 18.5 DraftKings PPG, 4.9 yards per attempt (YPA), 99.3 rushing yards, 0.4 rushing touchdowns
- 2016: 12.2 PPG, 2.9 YPA, 56.9 yards, 0.0 touchdowns
None of this matters until Week 4, as he’s suspended until then for a violation of the NFL’s substance abuse policy. The question is: What type of role is waiting for him when he returns? His DRAFT ADP of 69.0 infers the public believes he will walk back into a starting job, but I’m not sure that’s a guarantee. Martin offers very little in the passing game — he’s had less than 15 receptions in three of the past four seasons — and it seems more likely that he will lose touches (at least initially) when he returns. Certainly there’s historical upside if everything goes right, but at his cost it’s a risky investment.
Jacquizz Rodgers, RB
Rodgers has a DRAFT ADP of 130.3 — as if in his five 2016 starts he didn’t average 23.4 touches for 105.2 total yards per game. Similarly to Spencer Ware last year, Rodgers owners have the benefit of bell cow-level volume for at minimum the first three games of the season. Everything after that is to be determined, but the good news is you don’t have to pay bell cow-level draft capital to lock in that early-season volume. Rodgers doesn’t offer much in the passing game (2.2 receptions per game over his entire career), but the importance of volume to running backs cannot be overstated, and Rodgers was brought back on a two-year $3.3 million contract for a reason. Rodgers was sadly the most efficient Tampa Bay running back last year by a wide margin — 54th percentile as a runner (Rushing Expectation) — but his season still wasn’t great, finishing 45th with 4.6 yards per touch and 54th with 0.63 fantasy points per opportunity (PlayerProfiler). Even though Rodgers is 27 years old, there is a lot of equity to be gained with the crowd convinced Martin will easily take the job after his three-game suspension.
Charles Sims, RB
The Bucs see Sims as a limited-snap receiving back only, which is a shame given he’s one season removed from being the ninth-highest rated running back (PFF) with a 78.4 overall grade; he was second in yards per route run (2.25) that year. In 2016, Rodgers consistently played ahead of Sims when both backs were healthy. Durability has been a huge issue for Sims, missing 17 games in his three NFL seasons:
- 2012: Pedal ankle sprain grade two — missed one game and sat out three
- 2014: Pedal ankle fracture — missed first 10 games of season
- 2016: Knee meniscus tear — injured in Week 4, came back in Week 14
- 2016: Chest pectoral tear grade three
Sims played just 237 snaps in 2016 and although he wasn’t efficient — 14th and 27th percentile as a runner and receiver (Rushing Expectation) — in 2015 Sims was much better, finishing fourth with 6.9 yards per touch and 13th with 1.03 fantasy points per opportunity (PlayerProfiler). Sims fills a tactical role, but for fantasy he might be a player that is better suited for a fresh start on a new team (he is an UFA after this season and drafted by the former regime). That said, his standalone value and feature-back frame (6’0”, 214 lbs.) make him a viable dart throw or zero-RB target at a DRAFT ADP of 208.5 in a run-heavy offense.
Jeremy McNichols, RB
McNichols is a fifth-round pick who has no chance at unseating Martin, Rodgers, or Sims. That said, he has a chance.
Mike Evans, WR
Since being drafted in 2014, Evans has been one of the league’s best receivers. He’s had a 1,000-yard receiving campaign and seen over 120 targets each year, and he set career-highs with 10.8 targets per game (TPG), 6.0 receptions per game (RPG), and 82.5 yards per game (YPG) in 2016. A perpetual fantasy WR1, Evans last year was top-six at the position with 2.28 yards per route run (PFF) as well as a 30.0 percent target share (1st), 18.0 percent hog rate (5th), and 0.32 fantasy points per snap (5th), per PlayerProfiler. Evans represents fair value at his 8.8 DRAFT ADP.
That said, there’s one problem. In his first three seasons, Evans has only 19 targets inside the 10-yard line — just 0.41 per game. For the last three years, he has significantly trailed the other elite receivers in this category outside of A.J. Green:
- Antonio Brown: 36 targets, 0.77 TPG
- Odell Beckham: 25, 0.58
- Julio Jones: 22, 0.49
- A.J. Green: 14, 0.36
However, Evans trails only Brown (58.3 percent) in that group with a 57.9 percent catch rate inside the 10-yard line — substantially ahead of Green (50.0), Beckham (48.0), and Jones (47.6). Perhaps his efficiency on jump balls makes up for his lack of red zone volume relative to most of his elite peers.
Evans’ average depth of target is a below-average 7.9 yards (PFF), but his air yards of 6.7 yards per target led the NFL in 2016. With Jackson stretching the field, things should open up underneath even more for Evans. He is not necessarily an elite yardage accumulator: In comparison to Beckham (+600) and T.Y. Hilton (+1,200), he’s overvalued (+1,200) in the props markets to lead the league in receiving yards. Over the past three seasons, 11 players have received over 400 targets; of those players, Evans has the worst catch rate (53.7 percent) but the third-highest yards per reception (15.03). Unless Koetter makes a concerted effort to keep him more involved, he could have an up-and-down campaign: The run-heavy approach late in 2016 significantly impacted Evans’ target volume, going from 12.9 per game to 8.75 in the second half.
DeSean Jackson, WR
Jackson isn’t just a deep threat, he’s the deep threat. There are 11 players with 500 or more targets and an average yards per reception of 15 or more yards since he entered the league in 2008. Of those players, no player has a higher yards per reception than Jackson (17.71), and he trails only Malcom Floyd in yards per target.
What Jackson brings to the table is the ability to take the top off a defense and elevate an entire offense. Evans ran the majority of his routes to the left side last year, and Winston had a putrid 64.0 passer rating to the right side. Jackson should be a huge upgrade there; Kirk Cousins averaged 48.5 passing yards and over a yard per attempt (8.4) more with Jackson in the lineup over the past two seasons.
In Washington, Jackson averaged just 56.7 percent of the team snaps over his three seasons, but he still provides value even in limited snaps because of his big-play ability. Jackson has scored at least one touchdown in 35 percent of his career games. In those 47 games with a touchdown, he’s averaged 23.3 DraftKings PPG on just 4.7 receptions. Jackson is a fantastic target at his 68.7 DRAFT ADP, and creating Winston-Jackson stacks with our Lineup Builder should be a weekly GPP habit.
Adam Humphries, WR
Humphries was an UDFA in 2015 out of Clemson and has been a serviceable fantasy wide receiver in his first two seasons for the Bucs. He has spent 75.9 percent of his snaps in the slot (PFF) and has impressed with his 4.7 yards after the catch per target — the NFL’s 13th-highest mark. That said, the volume isn’t there; he will battle Brate and Godwin for snaps and has limited upside even as a late-round flier in season-long leagues.
Chris Godwin, WR
Godwin (2016 third-round pick) was used strictly as an outside receiver in college, lining up in the slot on just two percent of his snaps. In 2016, he caught 14 balls of 20-plus yards (20th among NCAA wide receivers) for 504 yards and seven touchdowns for Penn State. He averaged just 4.5 yards after the catch, broke just nine tackles on 59 catches, and had an 8.0 and 7.8 percent drop rate in 2015 and 2016, respectively.
Cameron Brate, TE
While Humphries served as the primary slot receiver last year, it’s Brate (6’5” 235 lbs.) who will likely be the No. 3 passing option in this offense. With a poor 44.2 run blocking and 65.2 pass blocking rating (PFF), Brate ran the highest percentage of slot routes (64.4 percent) of any tight end; he also caught six of his eight touchdowns in this area of the field. His red zone targets (16) were second on the team (Evans led with 17) but tied for the highest target share inside the 10-yard line. At tight end, just Kyle Rudolph (24), Antonio Gates (18), and Jimmy Graham (17) had more red zone targets than Brate. With Evans and Jackson playing on the outside, Brate is a high-upside TE option even if he sees touchdown regression from his league-leading eight in 2016.
O.J. Howard, TE
The Bucs’ 2017 first-round selection out of Alabama was a top-five SPARQ tight end, with 4.51 speed and impressive measurables (6’6” 251 lbs.). He was given PFF’s No. 1 overall grade among tight ends, including the top run-blocking grade in 2016. This may sound like a positive, but with Brate’s blocking deficiencies, Howard may actually help the run game more than the passing game in his rookie year. Just eight rookie tight ends in NFL history have exceeded 65 targets, and the Buccaneers tight ends saw a 20.2 percent target market share in 2016. If he does see targets, he has sure hands with just six total drops over the last three seasons, with three of those drops coming back in 2014. In his junior and senior year, Howard had stat lines of 38-602-2 and 45-595-3. He stands as a much better dynasty product than season-long or daily target in 2017.
2017 Futures
The Bucs’ 2017 win total currently sits at 8.5 wins with the over and under both at -115. They’re +160 to make the playoffs and -200 not to make it. Even with improved weapons in the passing game, they still have the ninth-hardest schedule of the season and fourth-most difficult schedule from Weeks 12 through 17 (per Warren Sharp of Rotoworld). The Bucs could offer value on both the under and missing the playoffs with the public undervaluing the improvements the rest of the NFC South has made. They’re +3,300 to win the Super Bowl, +1,600 to win the NFC, and +350 to win the division. The Bucs haven’t won the NFC South since 2007, which is also the last time they were a playoff team. They’re going to have to run extremely hot to change that in 2017, but they may have the offensive firepower now to at least threaten relevance.
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In researching for this piece I consulted Evan Silva’s excellent Buccaneers Fantasy Preview at Rotoworld and relied on data from Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, Football Perspective, PlayerProfiler, Team Rankings, The Power Rank, NFL.com, and the apps at RotoViz as well as the FantasyLabs Tools and Models.
Ian Hartitz and Matt LaMarca contributed research to this article.
