Our Blog


2017 NFL Fantasy Preview: Cincinnati Bengals

This fantasy preview is part of a preseason series by FantasyLabs Editor-in-Chief Matthew Freedman. Other pieces in the series are available on our Fantasy Football Preview Dashboard.

The longest-tenured head coach in the history of the franchise, Marvin Lewis has stabilized a team that prior to his hiring had gone 55-137 with not one winning season under four different HCs in the 12 years since the death in August 1991 of the team’s founder, owner, president, and first coach, Paul Brown. Lewis is now entering his 15th season with the Bengals, and although his 118-103-3 record with the team isn’t elite he’s had only four losing seasons. Since the team drafted quarterback Andy Dalton in 2011, they’re 58-36-2 with five postseason appearances, four campaigns with double-digit wins, and two AFC North titles. Of course, Lewis is 0-7 in the playoffs, the team was 6-9-1 last year, and the franchise hasn’t won a postseason game since the 1990 season. For Lewis, 2017 is about getting back to the playoffs — and maybe getting that elusive postseason victory.

Play-Calling Tendencies

Lewis is one of the most underappreciated coaches in the league. Although he rose through the NFL ranks on the defensive side of the ball (first as a linebackers coach with the Steelers and then as a defensive coordinator with the Ravens and Redskins), Lewis is unlike many HCs with defensive backgrounds. He doesn’t hinder the success of his offensive coordinators. He doesn’t mandate that they play at a ridiculously slow pace or run a particular type of scheme. He trusts them to maximize the strengths of their players and manage the offensive side of the ball. If he errs, it’s in allowing too much freedom to his OCs. It is perhaps this willingness to trust others to do their jobs that has endeared him to his players and coaches and enabled him to keep his position for so long. Only the Patriots’ Bill Belichick has been with his team longer than Lewis has been with the Bengals.

Philosophically, Lewis believes in investing in his offense. In Lewis’ first year with the team, he selected offensive players with his first three picks, one of whom was quarterback Carson Palmer, chosen No. 1 overall. Because he valued Palmer highly, he benched Palmer for his rookie season so he could learn behind veteran Jon Kitna without risk of injury. Since his career-worst 4-12 campaign in 2010, Lewis has rebuilt the offense by using 11 of his 14 top-two picks in each draft on offensive players, starting with A.J. Green (No. 4) and Dalton (No. 35) in 2011, when he fired longtime OC Bob Bratkowski and brought in Jay Gruden, who transitioned the team from the Air Coryell to the West Coast system, which would better suit Dalton’s arm. Not many HCs would’ve had the willingness to hire a candidate as unconventional as Gruden, who’d spent most of the previous 15 years coaching in the Arena and United Football Leagues.

As an organizer and manager of resources and talent, Lewis tends to do what makes sense and what the people working underneath him believe is best. When Bratkowski was OC (2003-10) and Palmer was quarterback in the vertical attack, the team was balanced but skewed slightly toward the pass. When Gruden was OC (2011-13) and Dalton was in the West Coast offense, the team was balanced but skewed a little more toward the run. After Gruden left to coach the Redskins and Hue Jackson shifted from running backs coach to OC (2014-15), the team skewed even heavier to the run and relied on the young legs of Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard, finishing top-eight in run/pass ratio in both of Jackson’s seasons in charge.

After Jackson left to coach the Browns last year, Ken Zampese was elevated to OC from quarterbacks coach, a position he’d held ever since 2003. In that role he scouted Palmer throughout the draft process and advised the team to draft him. He mentored Palmer while he sat as a rookie and developed as a young player. He also coached Kitna to his Comeback Player of the Year award in Palmer’s first season. In 2011 he scouted Dalton and since then has developed him into a multi-year Pro-Bowl quarterback. It’s probably not surprising that last year Zampese coordinated an offense that was less focused on the ground game than Jackson’s units had been — even without the pass catchers Green, Bernard, and Tyler Eifert for significant periods of time. The Bengals were fifth and ninth in plays and yards per drive and also seventh in neutral pace — the highest marks of the Dalton era. In fact only once in the last six years have the Bengals not been in the top half of the league in neutral rate of play. With Zampese coordinating the offense again, the Bengals aren’t likely to have a slow run-heavy unit.

2017 Roster

Ever since 2011 the Bengals have unrelentingly used high-capital draft picks on offensive players. For the most part, those are now the guys featured on game day:

  • QB: Andy Dalton
  • RB: Jeremy Hill/Giovani Bernard/Rex Burkhead –> Joe Mixon/Hill/Bernard
  • WR: A.J. Green
  • WR: Brandon LaFell –> LaFell/John Ross
  • WR: Tyler Boyd
  • TE: Tyler Eifert/Tyler Kroft/C.J. Uzomah –> Eifert
  • LT: Andrew Whitworth –> Cedric Ogbuehi
  • LG: Clint Boling
  • C: Russell Bodine
  • RG: Kevin Zeitler –> Andre Smith
  • RT: Ogbuehi/Jake Fisher –> Fisher

The hero of Week 17, Burkhead is now with the Patriots after years of special-teams relegation on the Bengals. Taking his roster spot is the second-round rookie Mixon, who will immediately challenge Hill and Bernard for snaps.

LaFell led all Bengals receivers last year with 1,011 snaps (93.01 percent) as he accumulated 107 targets. LaFell won’t be banished to the bench, but the first-round rookie Ross will eat into his (and perhaps Boyd’s) snaps.

Last year Eifert missed the first half of the season with ankle and back injuries. He underwent back surgery near the end of the campaign and is reportedly now 100 percent healthy. Having Eifert at the beginning of the season will be a boon for the offense.

Gone are offensive line stalwarts Whitworth and Zeitler, who have signed with the Rams and Browns. Given that last year they were Pro Football Focus’ No. 2 and No. 7 players at their positions with overall grades of 90.2 and 86.5, they will be missed. They were easily the team’s best offensive linemen, and without them the line as a whole might struggle.

Moving from right to left tackle is Ogbuehi, the 2014 first-rounder who was drafted as Whitworth’s eventual replacement, and replacing Ogbuehi at right tackle is Fisher, the 2014 second-rounder selected with this position in mind. Although both of them have draft pedigree and familiarity with the system and their teammates, they were horrible last year with 44.2 and 47.8 overall PFF grades. They’re not certain to be sturdy bookends for the offensive line.

Replacing Zeitler at right guard is Smith, the prodigal and onetime franchise right tackle. After the Bengals selected him with the No. 6 overall pick in the 2009 draft, Smith spent the first seven years (2009-15) of his career in Cincy before signing a one-year, $3.5 million deal with the Vikings last year. Hoping to improve his market value in Minnesota, Smith instead played poorly (42.3 overall PFF grade) and then tore his triceps in Week 4, missing the rest of the season. Signing a one-year, $3.25 million deal, Smith is a smart addition to the line. He’s never played guard, but he knows the system and has been a regular starter for the team (excepting last season) since 2011. If he can stay healthy — he’s missed 21 games over the last three years — he might be competent at guard.

On the defensive side of the ball, DC Paul Guenther’s unit is largely intact:

  • DE: Carlos Dunlap
  • DT: Geno Atkins
  • NT: Domata Peko/Pat Sims –> Andrew Billings/Sims
  • DE: Michael Johnson
  • OLB: Vontaze Burfict
  • MLB: Rey Maualuga/Vincent Rey –> Kevin Minter/Rey
  • OLB: Karlos Dansby –> Nick Vigil
  • CB: Dre Kirkpatrick
  • CB: Adam Jones –> Jones/William Jackson III
  • SCB: Josh Shaw/Darqueze Dennard
  • SS: Shawn Williams
  • FS: George Iloka

Peko is now with the Broncos, and the Bengals are expected to use at nose tackle a rotation of the veteran Sims and second-year Billings, who missed his entire rookie season with a knee injury but was a strong producer at Baylor, winning the Co-Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year award when he was just 20 years old.

In March the Bengals cut the longtime middle linebacker Maualuga, whose tackle numbers had declined in the last few years and who in 2016 was a part-time player. Releasing him saved the team $3.75 million. Replacing him is the younger Minter, who had four respectable seasons with the Cardinals and is signed for a tolerable $4.25 million on a one-year contract. Ironically, Dansby is taking Minter’s place in Arizona. Getting the first chance to replace Dansby is the second-year Vigil, who played primarily on special teams last year.

Jones is suspended for the first game of the season, and the second-year first-rounder Jackson is expected to fill in for him. Jackson missed his entire rookie campaign with a torn pectoral, but he’s healthy and could potentially challenge Jones or Shaw and Dennard in the slot for snaps.

Guenther isn’t a household name, but he knows the system and does his job: Before ascending to DC in 2014 following Mike Zimmer’s move to Minnesota, Guenther had been an assistant, secondary, linebackers, and special teams coach with the Bengals since 2005. In his three years as DC, Guenther has overseen three top-12 units in points allowed. In fact, over the last six years the Bengals have had a top-12 scoring defense each season. The defense is likely to keep the Bengals competitive in each game they play.

One note: As I’m writing this, Iloka has suffered a non-contact knee injury in training camp. It appears that he’ll be fine — he was able to walk around afterward — but his situation is something to monitor. Be sure to keep an eye on our NFL Matchups Dashboard as well as our NFL News feed to see how these units take shape and to track any injury updates.

Notable Players

I don’t want to go overboard, but the Bengals might have the league’s most talented collection of skill position players — or at least the most expensive in terms of draft capital:

  • Dalton: No. 35 pick (2011)
  • Mixon: 48 (2017)
  • Bernard: 37 (2013)
  • Hill: 55 (2014)
  • Green: 4 (2011)
  • Ross: 9 (2017)
  • Boyd: 55 (2016)
  • Eifert: 21 (2013)

That’s eight players selected within the first two rounds over the last six years. If Mixon lives up to his potential and Ross and Boyd are respectable, this offense could be a top-five unit — assuming the offensive line doesn’t collapse, which isn’t a given.

Andy Dalton, QB

After having the best season of his career in 2015 — when he was third in the league with a 75.3 Total QBR (per ESPN) and 8.9 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A), averaging 20.4 DraftKings points per game (PPG) — Dalton was likely to regress in 2016. He had career-high marks with a 66.1 percent completion rate, 6.5 percent touchdown rate, and 8.4 yards per attempt (Y/A). When you add in the fact that he would be with a new OC (with no NFL play-calling experience) and without wide receivers Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones (who had left for Atlanta and Detroit via free agency) and also without Eifert (who would miss the beginning of the season with an injury suffered in the Pro Bowl), Dalton was an easy quarterback to fade last year — and that was before Green and Bernard combined to miss 12 games with injuries. Clearly, 2016 was never going to be a year for Dalton to shine.

That said, Dalton did better in 2016 than many people realize. His touchdown rate dropped to a career-low 3.2 percent, but A) that number is likely to regress positively in 2016 and B) Dalton still outperformed his career averages with his 64.7 percent completion rate, 1.4 percent interception rate, and 7.5 Y/A. What we saw last season was a continuation of what we saw in 2015 and even 2014: Dalton is improving as a quarterback. Here are his three-year splits:

  • 2011-13 (with Gruden): 60.8 percent completion rate, 3.0 percent interception rate, 7.0 Y/A, 17.37 DraftKings PPG
  • 2014-16 (with Jackson and Zampese): 65.0 percent, 2.2 percent, 7.6 Y/A, 17.83 PPG

So far Dalton’s ongoing improvement hasn’t resulted in a huge increase in fantasy production — but if he maintains his level of performance and gets a little lucky when it comes to pace or touchdown rate, he could have a top-five campaign, especially with the new receiving weapons on the team.

Few people appreciate how consistently good Dalton has been to open his career: The only players with more touchdowns passing than his 142 in the first six years of their career are Dan Marino, Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, and Brett Favre. And Dalton’s always good for two to four rushing scores per year.

As I mention in my article on the top 100 NFL players, Dalton is wonderfully cheap at his average draft position (ADP) of 121.6 in DRAFT best ball leagues. He’s a strong pivot play on the quarterbacks being selected two to three rounds ahead of him. Dalton’s currently +10,000 to win the NFL MVP this season. I think his actual odds are better than those of Carson Wentz (+3,300), Sam Bradford (+5,000), Eli Manning (+5,000), Alex Smith (+6,600), and Ryan Tannhill (+6,600). He has some 2016 Ryan potential.

Joe Mixon, RB

As a pure talent, Mixon is the top running back in the rookie class. Despite having to share touches with the vastly underappreciated Samaje Perine at Oklahoma, Mixon still managed 116.8 scrimmage yards per game (YPG) and 1.04 touchdowns per game (TDPG) in his 25 college contests. And he did that while touching the ball only 14.6 times per game, so he’s not an overworked asset. Only just 21 years old, Mixon was a fantastic receiver out of the backfield in college. At 6’1″ and 228 lbs., he has wide receiver size, which he used on his way to a 65/894/9 pass-catching line across his two seasons. Given his build and receiving ability, the NFL players to whom he’s most comparable are Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson. Athletically, the back to whom Mixon is most comparable is probably Ezekiel Elliott. At his pre-draft workout Mixon had a 4.50-second 40. Like Zeke, he’s not a big-bodied lumberer.

If the Bengals want to use Mixon as a three-down workhorse right away, they probably can — and they might want to, considering they selected him with a premium pick despite the off-the-field issues in his past. I’ve said it elsewhere, but it’s worth saying again: Mixon is a younger and healthier version of Bernard in a more athletic version of Hill‘s body. That said, the Bengals still have Bernard and Hill, in whom they’ve also invested second-round picks in the last half-decade. Despite tearing his ACL in November, Bernard is participating in training camp and expected to be ready to play in Week 1, and Hill reportedly is still in line for goal-line carries.

Mixon’s DRAFT ADP over the last month has moved from 42.4 to 37.4. He’s not without risk, but he’s an upside selection. While Leonard Fournette and Christian McCaffrey are currently +500 and +650 to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award, Mixon is +1,600. I like him at that discount. Mixon should see few stacked fronts with opposing defenses forced to account for Green, Ross, and Eifert.

Giovani Bernard, RB

A mid-sized back (5’8″ and 202 lbs.) with good agility (6.91-second three-cone), Bernard is one of the league’s premier pass catchers out of the backfield. Since he entered the NFL in 2013, the only backs to surpass his 187 receptions and 1,671 receiving yards are Matt Forte (250, 2,054), Bell (227, 2,005), and Darren Sproles (218, 1,806). He has a wonderfully efficient 75.7 percent career catch rate and has averaged a respectable 13.2 DraftKings PPG for his 55 NFL contests. When healthy he’s been a vital member of the Bengals offense with 74.8 scrimmage YPG across his career.

At the same time, his career average of carries per game (CPG) is only 10.6, and he’s never averaged even 60 percent of the offensive snaps played (on a per-game basis) in any season. Bernard is one of the best of his breed — but he’s still just a glorified supplementary pass-catching and change-of-pace back. It would be a surprise if he averaged 10.6 CPG this year. Still, Bernard has never averaged fewer than 3.1 receptions and 67.3 scrimmage YPG in any season. He could easily be a productive back once again this year even if Mixon is the workhorse and Hill the goal-line grinder. Evan Silva doesn’t like it when people say that a guy is free — but Bernard is free-ish with his 191.1 DRAFT ADP.

Jeremy Hill, RB

Hill has a DRAFT ADP of 159.0 — as if he hasn’t piled up 3,225 scrimmage yards and 30 touchdowns in his three NFL seasons. The only player with more yards and touchdowns in that time is DeMarco Murray (4,949, 32). Hill is likely to lose many (if not the majority) of his carries to Mixon — and I don’t want to diminish the importance of volume to running backs — but what if we’re wrong about Mixon? What if he struggles as a rookie or gets fewer carries than expected or suffers an injury? Over the last three years Hill has had 222, 223, and 222 carries. Only Frank Gore has had at least 222 carries per season in each of the last three years. Hill is likely to get fewer touches this year and supposedly sucks with his career rushing average of 4.1 yards per carry — but it’s hard to ignore a big-bodied back who has an 80.8 percent catch rate and 13 carries per year inside the five-yard line. Averaging 12.41 DraftKings PPG for his career, Hill has been an up-and-down RB2 every season. In a contract year, he could still score 10 touchdowns with limited but high-value opportunities.

A.J. Green, WR

Since being drafted in 2011, Green has been one of the league’s best receivers. Prior to 2016 he had a 1,000-yard receiving campaign each year, and before his season-ending hamstring injury in Week 11 he was on track for the best year of his career with 11 targets per game (TPG) and 7.3 receptions per game (RPG) as well as 107.1 YPG, and 22.04 DraftKings PPG. A perpetual fantasy WR1, Green last year was top-five at the position with 2.86 yards per route run (PFF) as well as a 28.7 percent target share, 18.0 percent hog rate, and 0.34 fantasy points per snap (PlayerProfiler). Green represents fair value at his 9.0 DRAFT ADP.

That said, there’s one problem. In his first three seasons (with Gruden at OC), Green had 34 targets within the 10-yard line, good for an elite 0.72 TPG. Since Gruden left, Green has only 14 targets inside the 10 — just 0.36 per game. For the last three years he has significantly trailed the other elite receivers in this category:

  • Antonio Brown: 36 targets, 0.77 TPG
  • Odell Beckham: 25, 0.58
  • Julio Jones: 22, 0.49
  • Mike Evans: 19, 0.41

Green is an elite yardage accumulator — in comparison to T.Y. Hilton (+1,200) and Mike Evans (+1,200) he’s undervalued (+1,800) in the props markets to lead the league in receiving yards — but unless Zampese makes a concerted effort to target Green as much near the goal line as he does all over the rest of the field then Green’s unlikely to reach double-digit touchdowns.

But even without heavy target volume in the end zone, Green has been a strong daily fantasy sports option over the last three years, especially as an underdog, averaging 21.25 DraftKings PPG with a +4.21 Plus/Minus and 53.8 percent Consistency Rating when Vegas is against the Bengals (per our Trends tool). Intriguingly, Green was also owned in far fewer lineups as an underdog than a favorite (7.6 percent vs. 14.3). This year FantasyLabs users can review ownership trends across guaranteed prize pools of various buy-in levels with our DFS Ownership Dashboard, which is reason enough to subscribe to FantasyLabs. It’s possible that sharp players will take advantage of the ownership discount Green affords as a dog. Be sure to monitor our Vegas Dashboard to see how the market views the Bengals each week. If you want to construct Dalton-Green stacks, do it with our Lineup Builder.

John Ross, WR

If there’s a Tyreek Hill-esque force in the 2017 rookie class, it’s Ross. Breaking Chris Johnson’s combine speed record with a 4.22-second 40, Ross has good size (5’11” and 188 lbs.) for a burner and is a multi-faceted all-around talent. At the University of Washington, Ross contributed as a receiver, runner, and return man and even started four games at cornerback as a sophomore, when his seven touchdowns went for an average of 74.7 yards. The guy is a big-play machine.

There are three main criticisms of Ross:

  • He tends to get injured.
  • He has only one season of college production.
  • He must now compete with Green, LaFell, Boyd, and Eifert for targets.

It’s true that Ross’ injury history is less than pristine, and before the draft there were reportedly some teams that removed him entirely from their boards because of concerns about long-term durability: In the third game of the 2014 season he tore the meniscus in his right knee. He required microfracture surgery on the knee after the season — but he still played in each game of the 2014 campaign: #Tough. And then just a few months after his surgery he tore his left ACL and needed to have another surgery. As a result, he redshirted the 2015 season. And then during his 2016 campaign he injured his shoulder, which he had surgically repaired after Washington’s 2017 pro day. Ross is reportedly still not entirely recovered from the shoulder surgery, but he’s been cleared to practice.

So over the last 2.5 years Ross has had three major surgeries, two of which have been on his knees. In the long term, his durability might be an issue. In the short term, it says a lot about his potential that the Bengals spent the No. 9 overall pick on him even with his injury history.

Also, it’s unfair to say that Ross has only one year of college production. As a sophomore Ross played seven games at receiver before transitioning to cornerback. In those seven games, he was Washington’s leading aerial producer with 29.6 percent of the team’s receiving yards — and 50 percent of the receiving touchdowns — on just 14.3 percent of the receptions. The sample is small, but when it’s combined with the 14 contests from his 2016 redshirt breakout it paints an impressive picture:

  • Raw production: 98/1,521/21 receiving, 14/156/2 rushing, 1 return touchdown
  • Receiving market share: 25.3 percent of receptions, 31.2 percent of yards, 38.2 percent of touchdowns

Over his last 21 games as an offensive player, he averaged 79.9 yards and 1.1 touchdowns from scrimmage per game. He wasn’t just a one-year wonder.

Ross is unlikely to steal targets from Green and Eifert — but eventually he’s likely to surpass LaFell and Boyd: He’s the superior talent, and the Bengals have more invested in him. At a minimum, Zampese is likely to scheme a few strategic touches per game to him — and Ross has enough playmaking ability on his own to turn touches into touchdowns. All he needs is a few long scores to provide value at his 144.0 DRAFT ADP.

Brandon LaFell, WR

#LaFail has been a serviceable fantasy wide receiver in two of his last three seasons — the two in which he crossed the 100-target threshold — but he’s little more than a backup-caliber player. He averaged 8.7 TPG and 15.05 DraftKings PPG in his six full games without Green; in the other 10 games, 5.5 and 9.87. Turning 31 this season, he has never had 1,000 yards in a season.

Tyler Boyd, WR

Last year Dalton attempted at least 40 passes to five different pass catchers. Here’s how Dalton did with those attempts:

  • Green: 100 targets, 10.4 AY/A
  • LaFell: 107, 8.8
  • Eifert: 47, 8.6
  • Bernard: 41, 7.0
  • Boyd: 81, 6.0

That’s too many targets for Boyd, whose AY/A isn’t that low just because he played 88.3 percent of his snaps in the slot. It’s that low because he’s probably #notgood. Other slot receivers managed not to suck like that for their quarterbacks last season:

  • Cole Beasley: 85.4 percent of routes in the slot, 96 targets, 9.2 AY/A
  • Eli Rogers: 85.1, 60, 8.4
  • Randall Cobb: 78.4, 84, 7.7
  • Willie Snead: 77.0, 104, 8.1

That’s three guys who entered the league as undrafted free agents and one former Pro-Bowler universally believed to have had the worst non-rookie season of his career — and they all did significantly better than the second-round rookie, whom most people think had a good NFL debut.

Last year he was targeted 81 times — twice inside the 10-yard line — and he scored only once. If you think it’s good for a slender (6’1″ and 197 lbs.) and slow (4.58-second 40) slot-only receiver who never had double-digit touchdowns in a college season to show that he’s not a scorer in his first NFL season, then, yes, Boyd had a great rookie year.

He was 63rd among wide receivers with his 7.4 YPT. Not scoring touchdowns isn’t his only shortcoming.

Tyler Eifert, TE

Eifert is delicious at his 74.2 DRAFT ADP. He’s missed 26 of his last 48 potential games — but when he’s played he’s been the balls. In his 19 healthy games over the last two seasons, he’s scored 18 touchdowns. No tight end has more touchdowns since 2015. Since being drafted in 2013, Eifert has been Dalton’s best receiver, gifting the quarterback with an 8.9 AY/A on 179 targets. Over the last two years, Eifert has provided significantly more value as a favorite than an underdog:

  • Favorite (16 games): 15.69 DraftKings PPG, +6.62 Plus/Minus, 75.0 percent Consistency Rating, 7.3 percent ownership rate
  • Underdog (5): 9.97, -1.01, 40.0 percent, 8.1 percent

More raw points, better salary-adjusted production, a higher degree of reliability, and lower ownership: #GetOnIt.

2017 Futures

In the futures market the Bengals currently have a 2017 win total of 8.5 games with a +105 over and -125 under. They’re also +160 to make the playoffs and -200 not to. As mentioned earlier, in the Dalton era the Bengals are 58-36-2 with five postseason appearances and four campaigns with double-digit wins. Their offensive line is problematic — but Lewis’ history suggests the Bengals are more than capable of making the playoffs this season with a campaign of at least nine wins.

The Bengals are currently +5,000 to win the Super Bowl, +2,500 to win the AFC, and +250 to win the AFC North. At those odds, I prefer them to the Steelers and Ravens:

  • Steelers: +1,200, +700, +110
  • Ravens: +4,000, +2,000, +175

In the four years since winning the Super Bowl, the Ravens are 31-33. In the four years of the Ben Roethlisberger-Antonio-Le’Veon era, the Steelers are 40-24. In the four years of the Dalton-AJG-Gio era, the Bengals are 39-23-2. It’s hard to say that the Steelers and Ravens are clearly likelier than the Bengals to win the Super Bowl, conference, or division.

——

In researching for this piece I consulted Evan Silva’s excellent Bengals Fantasy Preview at Rotoworld and relied on data from Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, Football Perspective, PlayerProfiler, Team Rankings, The Power Rank, NFL.com, and the apps at RotoViz as well as the FantasyLabs Tools and Models.

Ian Hartitz and Matt LaMarca contributed research to this article.

This fantasy preview is part of a preseason series by FantasyLabs Editor-in-Chief Matthew Freedman. Other pieces in the series are available on our Fantasy Football Preview Dashboard.

The longest-tenured head coach in the history of the franchise, Marvin Lewis has stabilized a team that prior to his hiring had gone 55-137 with not one winning season under four different HCs in the 12 years since the death in August 1991 of the team’s founder, owner, president, and first coach, Paul Brown. Lewis is now entering his 15th season with the Bengals, and although his 118-103-3 record with the team isn’t elite he’s had only four losing seasons. Since the team drafted quarterback Andy Dalton in 2011, they’re 58-36-2 with five postseason appearances, four campaigns with double-digit wins, and two AFC North titles. Of course, Lewis is 0-7 in the playoffs, the team was 6-9-1 last year, and the franchise hasn’t won a postseason game since the 1990 season. For Lewis, 2017 is about getting back to the playoffs — and maybe getting that elusive postseason victory.

Play-Calling Tendencies

Lewis is one of the most underappreciated coaches in the league. Although he rose through the NFL ranks on the defensive side of the ball (first as a linebackers coach with the Steelers and then as a defensive coordinator with the Ravens and Redskins), Lewis is unlike many HCs with defensive backgrounds. He doesn’t hinder the success of his offensive coordinators. He doesn’t mandate that they play at a ridiculously slow pace or run a particular type of scheme. He trusts them to maximize the strengths of their players and manage the offensive side of the ball. If he errs, it’s in allowing too much freedom to his OCs. It is perhaps this willingness to trust others to do their jobs that has endeared him to his players and coaches and enabled him to keep his position for so long. Only the Patriots’ Bill Belichick has been with his team longer than Lewis has been with the Bengals.

Philosophically, Lewis believes in investing in his offense. In Lewis’ first year with the team, he selected offensive players with his first three picks, one of whom was quarterback Carson Palmer, chosen No. 1 overall. Because he valued Palmer highly, he benched Palmer for his rookie season so he could learn behind veteran Jon Kitna without risk of injury. Since his career-worst 4-12 campaign in 2010, Lewis has rebuilt the offense by using 11 of his 14 top-two picks in each draft on offensive players, starting with A.J. Green (No. 4) and Dalton (No. 35) in 2011, when he fired longtime OC Bob Bratkowski and brought in Jay Gruden, who transitioned the team from the Air Coryell to the West Coast system, which would better suit Dalton’s arm. Not many HCs would’ve had the willingness to hire a candidate as unconventional as Gruden, who’d spent most of the previous 15 years coaching in the Arena and United Football Leagues.

As an organizer and manager of resources and talent, Lewis tends to do what makes sense and what the people working underneath him believe is best. When Bratkowski was OC (2003-10) and Palmer was quarterback in the vertical attack, the team was balanced but skewed slightly toward the pass. When Gruden was OC (2011-13) and Dalton was in the West Coast offense, the team was balanced but skewed a little more toward the run. After Gruden left to coach the Redskins and Hue Jackson shifted from running backs coach to OC (2014-15), the team skewed even heavier to the run and relied on the young legs of Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard, finishing top-eight in run/pass ratio in both of Jackson’s seasons in charge.

After Jackson left to coach the Browns last year, Ken Zampese was elevated to OC from quarterbacks coach, a position he’d held ever since 2003. In that role he scouted Palmer throughout the draft process and advised the team to draft him. He mentored Palmer while he sat as a rookie and developed as a young player. He also coached Kitna to his Comeback Player of the Year award in Palmer’s first season. In 2011 he scouted Dalton and since then has developed him into a multi-year Pro-Bowl quarterback. It’s probably not surprising that last year Zampese coordinated an offense that was less focused on the ground game than Jackson’s units had been — even without the pass catchers Green, Bernard, and Tyler Eifert for significant periods of time. The Bengals were fifth and ninth in plays and yards per drive and also seventh in neutral pace — the highest marks of the Dalton era. In fact only once in the last six years have the Bengals not been in the top half of the league in neutral rate of play. With Zampese coordinating the offense again, the Bengals aren’t likely to have a slow run-heavy unit.

2017 Roster

Ever since 2011 the Bengals have unrelentingly used high-capital draft picks on offensive players. For the most part, those are now the guys featured on game day:

  • QB: Andy Dalton
  • RB: Jeremy Hill/Giovani Bernard/Rex Burkhead –> Joe Mixon/Hill/Bernard
  • WR: A.J. Green
  • WR: Brandon LaFell –> LaFell/John Ross
  • WR: Tyler Boyd
  • TE: Tyler Eifert/Tyler Kroft/C.J. Uzomah –> Eifert
  • LT: Andrew Whitworth –> Cedric Ogbuehi
  • LG: Clint Boling
  • C: Russell Bodine
  • RG: Kevin Zeitler –> Andre Smith
  • RT: Ogbuehi/Jake Fisher –> Fisher

The hero of Week 17, Burkhead is now with the Patriots after years of special-teams relegation on the Bengals. Taking his roster spot is the second-round rookie Mixon, who will immediately challenge Hill and Bernard for snaps.

LaFell led all Bengals receivers last year with 1,011 snaps (93.01 percent) as he accumulated 107 targets. LaFell won’t be banished to the bench, but the first-round rookie Ross will eat into his (and perhaps Boyd’s) snaps.

Last year Eifert missed the first half of the season with ankle and back injuries. He underwent back surgery near the end of the campaign and is reportedly now 100 percent healthy. Having Eifert at the beginning of the season will be a boon for the offense.

Gone are offensive line stalwarts Whitworth and Zeitler, who have signed with the Rams and Browns. Given that last year they were Pro Football Focus’ No. 2 and No. 7 players at their positions with overall grades of 90.2 and 86.5, they will be missed. They were easily the team’s best offensive linemen, and without them the line as a whole might struggle.

Moving from right to left tackle is Ogbuehi, the 2014 first-rounder who was drafted as Whitworth’s eventual replacement, and replacing Ogbuehi at right tackle is Fisher, the 2014 second-rounder selected with this position in mind. Although both of them have draft pedigree and familiarity with the system and their teammates, they were horrible last year with 44.2 and 47.8 overall PFF grades. They’re not certain to be sturdy bookends for the offensive line.

Replacing Zeitler at right guard is Smith, the prodigal and onetime franchise right tackle. After the Bengals selected him with the No. 6 overall pick in the 2009 draft, Smith spent the first seven years (2009-15) of his career in Cincy before signing a one-year, $3.5 million deal with the Vikings last year. Hoping to improve his market value in Minnesota, Smith instead played poorly (42.3 overall PFF grade) and then tore his triceps in Week 4, missing the rest of the season. Signing a one-year, $3.25 million deal, Smith is a smart addition to the line. He’s never played guard, but he knows the system and has been a regular starter for the team (excepting last season) since 2011. If he can stay healthy — he’s missed 21 games over the last three years — he might be competent at guard.

On the defensive side of the ball, DC Paul Guenther’s unit is largely intact:

  • DE: Carlos Dunlap
  • DT: Geno Atkins
  • NT: Domata Peko/Pat Sims –> Andrew Billings/Sims
  • DE: Michael Johnson
  • OLB: Vontaze Burfict
  • MLB: Rey Maualuga/Vincent Rey –> Kevin Minter/Rey
  • OLB: Karlos Dansby –> Nick Vigil
  • CB: Dre Kirkpatrick
  • CB: Adam Jones –> Jones/William Jackson III
  • SCB: Josh Shaw/Darqueze Dennard
  • SS: Shawn Williams
  • FS: George Iloka

Peko is now with the Broncos, and the Bengals are expected to use at nose tackle a rotation of the veteran Sims and second-year Billings, who missed his entire rookie season with a knee injury but was a strong producer at Baylor, winning the Co-Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year award when he was just 20 years old.

In March the Bengals cut the longtime middle linebacker Maualuga, whose tackle numbers had declined in the last few years and who in 2016 was a part-time player. Releasing him saved the team $3.75 million. Replacing him is the younger Minter, who had four respectable seasons with the Cardinals and is signed for a tolerable $4.25 million on a one-year contract. Ironically, Dansby is taking Minter’s place in Arizona. Getting the first chance to replace Dansby is the second-year Vigil, who played primarily on special teams last year.

Jones is suspended for the first game of the season, and the second-year first-rounder Jackson is expected to fill in for him. Jackson missed his entire rookie campaign with a torn pectoral, but he’s healthy and could potentially challenge Jones or Shaw and Dennard in the slot for snaps.

Guenther isn’t a household name, but he knows the system and does his job: Before ascending to DC in 2014 following Mike Zimmer’s move to Minnesota, Guenther had been an assistant, secondary, linebackers, and special teams coach with the Bengals since 2005. In his three years as DC, Guenther has overseen three top-12 units in points allowed. In fact, over the last six years the Bengals have had a top-12 scoring defense each season. The defense is likely to keep the Bengals competitive in each game they play.

One note: As I’m writing this, Iloka has suffered a non-contact knee injury in training camp. It appears that he’ll be fine — he was able to walk around afterward — but his situation is something to monitor. Be sure to keep an eye on our NFL Matchups Dashboard as well as our NFL News feed to see how these units take shape and to track any injury updates.

Notable Players

I don’t want to go overboard, but the Bengals might have the league’s most talented collection of skill position players — or at least the most expensive in terms of draft capital:

  • Dalton: No. 35 pick (2011)
  • Mixon: 48 (2017)
  • Bernard: 37 (2013)
  • Hill: 55 (2014)
  • Green: 4 (2011)
  • Ross: 9 (2017)
  • Boyd: 55 (2016)
  • Eifert: 21 (2013)

That’s eight players selected within the first two rounds over the last six years. If Mixon lives up to his potential and Ross and Boyd are respectable, this offense could be a top-five unit — assuming the offensive line doesn’t collapse, which isn’t a given.

Andy Dalton, QB

After having the best season of his career in 2015 — when he was third in the league with a 75.3 Total QBR (per ESPN) and 8.9 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A), averaging 20.4 DraftKings points per game (PPG) — Dalton was likely to regress in 2016. He had career-high marks with a 66.1 percent completion rate, 6.5 percent touchdown rate, and 8.4 yards per attempt (Y/A). When you add in the fact that he would be with a new OC (with no NFL play-calling experience) and without wide receivers Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones (who had left for Atlanta and Detroit via free agency) and also without Eifert (who would miss the beginning of the season with an injury suffered in the Pro Bowl), Dalton was an easy quarterback to fade last year — and that was before Green and Bernard combined to miss 12 games with injuries. Clearly, 2016 was never going to be a year for Dalton to shine.

That said, Dalton did better in 2016 than many people realize. His touchdown rate dropped to a career-low 3.2 percent, but A) that number is likely to regress positively in 2016 and B) Dalton still outperformed his career averages with his 64.7 percent completion rate, 1.4 percent interception rate, and 7.5 Y/A. What we saw last season was a continuation of what we saw in 2015 and even 2014: Dalton is improving as a quarterback. Here are his three-year splits:

  • 2011-13 (with Gruden): 60.8 percent completion rate, 3.0 percent interception rate, 7.0 Y/A, 17.37 DraftKings PPG
  • 2014-16 (with Jackson and Zampese): 65.0 percent, 2.2 percent, 7.6 Y/A, 17.83 PPG

So far Dalton’s ongoing improvement hasn’t resulted in a huge increase in fantasy production — but if he maintains his level of performance and gets a little lucky when it comes to pace or touchdown rate, he could have a top-five campaign, especially with the new receiving weapons on the team.

Few people appreciate how consistently good Dalton has been to open his career: The only players with more touchdowns passing than his 142 in the first six years of their career are Dan Marino, Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, and Brett Favre. And Dalton’s always good for two to four rushing scores per year.

As I mention in my article on the top 100 NFL players, Dalton is wonderfully cheap at his average draft position (ADP) of 121.6 in DRAFT best ball leagues. He’s a strong pivot play on the quarterbacks being selected two to three rounds ahead of him. Dalton’s currently +10,000 to win the NFL MVP this season. I think his actual odds are better than those of Carson Wentz (+3,300), Sam Bradford (+5,000), Eli Manning (+5,000), Alex Smith (+6,600), and Ryan Tannhill (+6,600). He has some 2016 Ryan potential.

Joe Mixon, RB

As a pure talent, Mixon is the top running back in the rookie class. Despite having to share touches with the vastly underappreciated Samaje Perine at Oklahoma, Mixon still managed 116.8 scrimmage yards per game (YPG) and 1.04 touchdowns per game (TDPG) in his 25 college contests. And he did that while touching the ball only 14.6 times per game, so he’s not an overworked asset. Only just 21 years old, Mixon was a fantastic receiver out of the backfield in college. At 6’1″ and 228 lbs., he has wide receiver size, which he used on his way to a 65/894/9 pass-catching line across his two seasons. Given his build and receiving ability, the NFL players to whom he’s most comparable are Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson. Athletically, the back to whom Mixon is most comparable is probably Ezekiel Elliott. At his pre-draft workout Mixon had a 4.50-second 40. Like Zeke, he’s not a big-bodied lumberer.

If the Bengals want to use Mixon as a three-down workhorse right away, they probably can — and they might want to, considering they selected him with a premium pick despite the off-the-field issues in his past. I’ve said it elsewhere, but it’s worth saying again: Mixon is a younger and healthier version of Bernard in a more athletic version of Hill‘s body. That said, the Bengals still have Bernard and Hill, in whom they’ve also invested second-round picks in the last half-decade. Despite tearing his ACL in November, Bernard is participating in training camp and expected to be ready to play in Week 1, and Hill reportedly is still in line for goal-line carries.

Mixon’s DRAFT ADP over the last month has moved from 42.4 to 37.4. He’s not without risk, but he’s an upside selection. While Leonard Fournette and Christian McCaffrey are currently +500 and +650 to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award, Mixon is +1,600. I like him at that discount. Mixon should see few stacked fronts with opposing defenses forced to account for Green, Ross, and Eifert.

Giovani Bernard, RB

A mid-sized back (5’8″ and 202 lbs.) with good agility (6.91-second three-cone), Bernard is one of the league’s premier pass catchers out of the backfield. Since he entered the NFL in 2013, the only backs to surpass his 187 receptions and 1,671 receiving yards are Matt Forte (250, 2,054), Bell (227, 2,005), and Darren Sproles (218, 1,806). He has a wonderfully efficient 75.7 percent career catch rate and has averaged a respectable 13.2 DraftKings PPG for his 55 NFL contests. When healthy he’s been a vital member of the Bengals offense with 74.8 scrimmage YPG across his career.

At the same time, his career average of carries per game (CPG) is only 10.6, and he’s never averaged even 60 percent of the offensive snaps played (on a per-game basis) in any season. Bernard is one of the best of his breed — but he’s still just a glorified supplementary pass-catching and change-of-pace back. It would be a surprise if he averaged 10.6 CPG this year. Still, Bernard has never averaged fewer than 3.1 receptions and 67.3 scrimmage YPG in any season. He could easily be a productive back once again this year even if Mixon is the workhorse and Hill the goal-line grinder. Evan Silva doesn’t like it when people say that a guy is free — but Bernard is free-ish with his 191.1 DRAFT ADP.

Jeremy Hill, RB

Hill has a DRAFT ADP of 159.0 — as if he hasn’t piled up 3,225 scrimmage yards and 30 touchdowns in his three NFL seasons. The only player with more yards and touchdowns in that time is DeMarco Murray (4,949, 32). Hill is likely to lose many (if not the majority) of his carries to Mixon — and I don’t want to diminish the importance of volume to running backs — but what if we’re wrong about Mixon? What if he struggles as a rookie or gets fewer carries than expected or suffers an injury? Over the last three years Hill has had 222, 223, and 222 carries. Only Frank Gore has had at least 222 carries per season in each of the last three years. Hill is likely to get fewer touches this year and supposedly sucks with his career rushing average of 4.1 yards per carry — but it’s hard to ignore a big-bodied back who has an 80.8 percent catch rate and 13 carries per year inside the five-yard line. Averaging 12.41 DraftKings PPG for his career, Hill has been an up-and-down RB2 every season. In a contract year, he could still score 10 touchdowns with limited but high-value opportunities.

A.J. Green, WR

Since being drafted in 2011, Green has been one of the league’s best receivers. Prior to 2016 he had a 1,000-yard receiving campaign each year, and before his season-ending hamstring injury in Week 11 he was on track for the best year of his career with 11 targets per game (TPG) and 7.3 receptions per game (RPG) as well as 107.1 YPG, and 22.04 DraftKings PPG. A perpetual fantasy WR1, Green last year was top-five at the position with 2.86 yards per route run (PFF) as well as a 28.7 percent target share, 18.0 percent hog rate, and 0.34 fantasy points per snap (PlayerProfiler). Green represents fair value at his 9.0 DRAFT ADP.

That said, there’s one problem. In his first three seasons (with Gruden at OC), Green had 34 targets within the 10-yard line, good for an elite 0.72 TPG. Since Gruden left, Green has only 14 targets inside the 10 — just 0.36 per game. For the last three years he has significantly trailed the other elite receivers in this category:

  • Antonio Brown: 36 targets, 0.77 TPG
  • Odell Beckham: 25, 0.58
  • Julio Jones: 22, 0.49
  • Mike Evans: 19, 0.41

Green is an elite yardage accumulator — in comparison to T.Y. Hilton (+1,200) and Mike Evans (+1,200) he’s undervalued (+1,800) in the props markets to lead the league in receiving yards — but unless Zampese makes a concerted effort to target Green as much near the goal line as he does all over the rest of the field then Green’s unlikely to reach double-digit touchdowns.

But even without heavy target volume in the end zone, Green has been a strong daily fantasy sports option over the last three years, especially as an underdog, averaging 21.25 DraftKings PPG with a +4.21 Plus/Minus and 53.8 percent Consistency Rating when Vegas is against the Bengals (per our Trends tool). Intriguingly, Green was also owned in far fewer lineups as an underdog than a favorite (7.6 percent vs. 14.3). This year FantasyLabs users can review ownership trends across guaranteed prize pools of various buy-in levels with our DFS Ownership Dashboard, which is reason enough to subscribe to FantasyLabs. It’s possible that sharp players will take advantage of the ownership discount Green affords as a dog. Be sure to monitor our Vegas Dashboard to see how the market views the Bengals each week. If you want to construct Dalton-Green stacks, do it with our Lineup Builder.

John Ross, WR

If there’s a Tyreek Hill-esque force in the 2017 rookie class, it’s Ross. Breaking Chris Johnson’s combine speed record with a 4.22-second 40, Ross has good size (5’11” and 188 lbs.) for a burner and is a multi-faceted all-around talent. At the University of Washington, Ross contributed as a receiver, runner, and return man and even started four games at cornerback as a sophomore, when his seven touchdowns went for an average of 74.7 yards. The guy is a big-play machine.

There are three main criticisms of Ross:

  • He tends to get injured.
  • He has only one season of college production.
  • He must now compete with Green, LaFell, Boyd, and Eifert for targets.

It’s true that Ross’ injury history is less than pristine, and before the draft there were reportedly some teams that removed him entirely from their boards because of concerns about long-term durability: In the third game of the 2014 season he tore the meniscus in his right knee. He required microfracture surgery on the knee after the season — but he still played in each game of the 2014 campaign: #Tough. And then just a few months after his surgery he tore his left ACL and needed to have another surgery. As a result, he redshirted the 2015 season. And then during his 2016 campaign he injured his shoulder, which he had surgically repaired after Washington’s 2017 pro day. Ross is reportedly still not entirely recovered from the shoulder surgery, but he’s been cleared to practice.

So over the last 2.5 years Ross has had three major surgeries, two of which have been on his knees. In the long term, his durability might be an issue. In the short term, it says a lot about his potential that the Bengals spent the No. 9 overall pick on him even with his injury history.

Also, it’s unfair to say that Ross has only one year of college production. As a sophomore Ross played seven games at receiver before transitioning to cornerback. In those seven games, he was Washington’s leading aerial producer with 29.6 percent of the team’s receiving yards — and 50 percent of the receiving touchdowns — on just 14.3 percent of the receptions. The sample is small, but when it’s combined with the 14 contests from his 2016 redshirt breakout it paints an impressive picture:

  • Raw production: 98/1,521/21 receiving, 14/156/2 rushing, 1 return touchdown
  • Receiving market share: 25.3 percent of receptions, 31.2 percent of yards, 38.2 percent of touchdowns

Over his last 21 games as an offensive player, he averaged 79.9 yards and 1.1 touchdowns from scrimmage per game. He wasn’t just a one-year wonder.

Ross is unlikely to steal targets from Green and Eifert — but eventually he’s likely to surpass LaFell and Boyd: He’s the superior talent, and the Bengals have more invested in him. At a minimum, Zampese is likely to scheme a few strategic touches per game to him — and Ross has enough playmaking ability on his own to turn touches into touchdowns. All he needs is a few long scores to provide value at his 144.0 DRAFT ADP.

Brandon LaFell, WR

#LaFail has been a serviceable fantasy wide receiver in two of his last three seasons — the two in which he crossed the 100-target threshold — but he’s little more than a backup-caliber player. He averaged 8.7 TPG and 15.05 DraftKings PPG in his six full games without Green; in the other 10 games, 5.5 and 9.87. Turning 31 this season, he has never had 1,000 yards in a season.

Tyler Boyd, WR

Last year Dalton attempted at least 40 passes to five different pass catchers. Here’s how Dalton did with those attempts:

  • Green: 100 targets, 10.4 AY/A
  • LaFell: 107, 8.8
  • Eifert: 47, 8.6
  • Bernard: 41, 7.0
  • Boyd: 81, 6.0

That’s too many targets for Boyd, whose AY/A isn’t that low just because he played 88.3 percent of his snaps in the slot. It’s that low because he’s probably #notgood. Other slot receivers managed not to suck like that for their quarterbacks last season:

  • Cole Beasley: 85.4 percent of routes in the slot, 96 targets, 9.2 AY/A
  • Eli Rogers: 85.1, 60, 8.4
  • Randall Cobb: 78.4, 84, 7.7
  • Willie Snead: 77.0, 104, 8.1

That’s three guys who entered the league as undrafted free agents and one former Pro-Bowler universally believed to have had the worst non-rookie season of his career — and they all did significantly better than the second-round rookie, whom most people think had a good NFL debut.

Last year he was targeted 81 times — twice inside the 10-yard line — and he scored only once. If you think it’s good for a slender (6’1″ and 197 lbs.) and slow (4.58-second 40) slot-only receiver who never had double-digit touchdowns in a college season to show that he’s not a scorer in his first NFL season, then, yes, Boyd had a great rookie year.

He was 63rd among wide receivers with his 7.4 YPT. Not scoring touchdowns isn’t his only shortcoming.

Tyler Eifert, TE

Eifert is delicious at his 74.2 DRAFT ADP. He’s missed 26 of his last 48 potential games — but when he’s played he’s been the balls. In his 19 healthy games over the last two seasons, he’s scored 18 touchdowns. No tight end has more touchdowns since 2015. Since being drafted in 2013, Eifert has been Dalton’s best receiver, gifting the quarterback with an 8.9 AY/A on 179 targets. Over the last two years, Eifert has provided significantly more value as a favorite than an underdog:

  • Favorite (16 games): 15.69 DraftKings PPG, +6.62 Plus/Minus, 75.0 percent Consistency Rating, 7.3 percent ownership rate
  • Underdog (5): 9.97, -1.01, 40.0 percent, 8.1 percent

More raw points, better salary-adjusted production, a higher degree of reliability, and lower ownership: #GetOnIt.

2017 Futures

In the futures market the Bengals currently have a 2017 win total of 8.5 games with a +105 over and -125 under. They’re also +160 to make the playoffs and -200 not to. As mentioned earlier, in the Dalton era the Bengals are 58-36-2 with five postseason appearances and four campaigns with double-digit wins. Their offensive line is problematic — but Lewis’ history suggests the Bengals are more than capable of making the playoffs this season with a campaign of at least nine wins.

The Bengals are currently +5,000 to win the Super Bowl, +2,500 to win the AFC, and +250 to win the AFC North. At those odds, I prefer them to the Steelers and Ravens:

  • Steelers: +1,200, +700, +110
  • Ravens: +4,000, +2,000, +175

In the four years since winning the Super Bowl, the Ravens are 31-33. In the four years of the Ben Roethlisberger-Antonio-Le’Veon era, the Steelers are 40-24. In the four years of the Dalton-AJG-Gio era, the Bengals are 39-23-2. It’s hard to say that the Steelers and Ravens are clearly likelier than the Bengals to win the Super Bowl, conference, or division.

——

In researching for this piece I consulted Evan Silva’s excellent Bengals Fantasy Preview at Rotoworld and relied on data from Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, Football Perspective, PlayerProfiler, Team Rankings, The Power Rank, NFL.com, and the apps at RotoViz as well as the FantasyLabs Tools and Models.

Ian Hartitz and Matt LaMarca contributed research to this article.

About the Author

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. The only edge he has in anything is his knowledge of '90s music.