Nailing the running back spots is essential for constructing a solid DFS lineup. It’s a bit easier to project than the receivers, where touchdowns and big plays are going to result in weekly variance. The workloads for the top running backs are much more stable, so they’re typically more consistent fantasy producers.
However, that also results in some of the heaviest chalk you’ll see across the industry. How do you handle those players each week?
In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Christian McCaffrey ($8,500 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)
The contest between the 49ers and Cowboys stands out as the clear marquee matchup for fantasy purposes. It leads all games with a total of 56.0, and no other game on the slate is above 50.5. It also features just a 4.5-point spread, so it’s expected to be a competitive contest. Overall, it should be an elite game environment.
It makes McCaffrey one of the most appealing RB targets of the week. To be fair, McCaffrey doesn’t need an elite matchup to be a strong fantasy option. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past seven games, including three straight. He’s had at least 22.0 DraftKings points in each of those contests, peaking with a mark of 31.7 DraftKings points vs. the Commanders.
McCaffrey didn’t even need to do much as a receiver last week. That said, we know he’s clearly capable of chipping in as a pass-catcher. He leads all RBs with a 20% target share for the year, so if the 49ers have to pass the ball a bit more this week, McCaffrey should bounce back in that department. It gives him one of the safest floors in all of fantasy, with plenty of upside too.
Woody Marks ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel)
The Texans are looking to make another late push to the playoffs. They’re currently sitting at just 3-5, but the AFC is not nearly as strong as the NFC. Nine wins could potentially make the postseason, and the Texans had a similar late push in 2025-26.
If they’re going to do it again, they’re going to need Marks at running back. The team remains extremely thin at the position, with David Montgomery still sidelined and Jawhar Jordan out for the year. Marks had 79% of the team’s rushing attempts two games ago, and he was at 75% last week. That number could’ve been even higher if not for the game turning into a blowout.
Marks has ultimately had at least 15 carries in four straight games, and he should eclipse that threshold once again vs. the Browns. The Texans are listed as 4.5-point road favorites, which suggests a favorable game script. Cleveland’s defense has also not been nearly as formidable as in previous years, ranking just 25th in EPA per rush so far this season.
It makes Marks one of the safest options in this price range. He may not have a crazy-high ceiling, but he’s a good bet to return value. He ranks fifth at the position in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Bijan Robinson ($8,200 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel)
While McCaffrey stands out in terms of game environment, it’s hard to argue against Robinson at a cheaper price tag across the industry. He’s putting together another elite season for the Falcons, averaging 5.2 yards per carry while leading the league with 880 rushing yards. He also has a 16% target share, resulting in the fourth-most fantasy points per game at the position.
The big drawback with Robinson last year was his touchdown upside. He split the touches with Tyler Allgeier around the goal line, which was a big deal. However, he’s handled 80% of the Falcons’ carries from inside the five-yard line this season. He still has just five rushing touchdowns, but he has a much larger share of the goal line work overall. It gives him more touchdown potential on a week-to-week basis.
He’ll square off with the Chiefs this week, which is not an ideal matchup. They rank seventh in EPA per rush defensively, and they’re in the middle of the pack in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs.
Still, Robinson is undoubtedly one of the best runners in the league, and he owns the top projections on the slate. He leads the position in median and ceiling projection, and he’s also No. 1 in projected Plus/Minus. Robinson is projected for the most ownership at the position, but it’s clearly warranted: his Sim Labs optimal lineup rate checks in at 36.5% on DraftKings and 40.9% on FanDuel.
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Chuba Hubbard ($7,200 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)
It’s possible that Hubbard’s stock could take a slight hit this week. The Panthers have designated Jonathon Brooks to return from IR, and he’s practiced in full to start the week. It means he could be back in the lineup vs. the Saints.
However, the more likely scenario is that he misses at least one more contest. The team has 21 days after activating him to put him back on the active roster, and given his injury history, they’re probably not going to rush him back. It sets up another week with potential bell-cow usage for Hubbard.
As long as that’s the case, it’s hard not to love him vs. the Saints. No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing RBs this season, giving Hubbard an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.1.
Hubbard has been awesome recently, regardless of the matchup, posting a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games. He’s had at least 22.1 DraftKings points in three of them, so he’s one of the strongest options on the slate. He trails only Robinson in terms of projected Plus/Minus, and he’s also No. 2 in Sim Labs optimal lineup rate.
Ollie Gordon ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel)
Gordon is another potential source of value at the position. Expectations were pretty low for him after taking over for the injured De’Von Achane. He was pretty terrible as a rookie, and with the Dolphins’ offensive struggles as a whole, it was hard to imagine Gordon doing much damage.
That said, Gordon posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games following Achane’s injury, including two with at least 20.3 DraftKings points. He’s come back to reality a bit over his past two outings (7.4 and 6.9 DraftKings points), but he’s still had at least 16 carries in both contests.
Gordon should see plenty of opportunities this week vs. the Colts. He’ll be playing alongside a rookie QB making his first career start in Kyle McCord. As long as this game remains competitive, Gordon should be the primary focus for the team’s offense.
The Colts are also an exploitable matchup. They’ve allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing RBs, and they traded away a bunch of key contributors before the trade deadline. The Dolphins are still listed as 3.5-point underdogs in this contest, but if McCord isn’t a disaster, this game should be competitive.
Kyren Williams ($7,100 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)
The Rams continue to deal with injury after injury. Davante Adams was already out for an extended period, and Puka Nacua joined him on the IR earlier this week. He’s going to miss at least the next four contests, leaving the team extremely thin at receiver. They were already a top-heavy group, so how they deal with Nacua’s absence is a huge question mark.
One option is to lean more on their RBs. Williams and Blake Corum have both been good this season, and both guys could see more opportunities moving forward.
However, Williams stands out as the biggest potential beneficiary. He’s seen more usage as a pass-catcher this season, and he also has a bigger share of the goal-line touches. It gives him significantly more upside for fantasy purposes.
The game script vs. the Cardinals also looks extremely favorable. The Rams are listed as 9.5-point road favorites, so there should be plenty of work to go around in the backfield.
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Zach Charbonnet ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel)
The Seahawks are another team with a backup QB under center in Week 10. However, unlike in some of the other situations, we can feel pretty good about Drew Lock. There’s been a minimal drop-off from Sam Darnold to Lock this season, so that’s not a major concern.
Charbonnet will make his third appearance of the season in Week 10, and his role has steadily grown over the first two. He had just a 36% snap share in Week 8, but he was up to 56% last week. Conversely, Jadarian Price’s snap share fell from 48% to 38%, while Emanuel Wilson hasn’t seen the field.
Charbonnet doesn’t figure to be an every-snap RB, but he should see most of the important touches. Even when the team had Kenneth Walker, Charbonnet handled a lot of the pass-catching and short-yardage opportunities. It gives Charbonnet a fantasy-friendly skill set.
It results in him being undervalued this week per Sim Labs. His DraftKings optimal lineup rate exceeds his projected ownership, which checks in at around 10%.
Tyler Allgeier ($5,200 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel)
The Cardinals could get nothing going vs. the Seahawks last week, and things don’t figure to get much easier in Week 10. They’re taking on the Rams, and they’ll be doing so with a rookie QB. Carson Beck will make his first career start, so expectations should be pretty low.
That said, volume is king at running back, and Allgeier could get all the volume he can handle. He had a 96% snap share and 94% carry share last week, and he could be looking at similar figures against the Rams.
The big X-factor here is Bam Knight. He’s split the workload with Allgeier previously, but he missed last week’s game due to a concussion. If he’s able to return this week, it would be a significant hit to Allgeier’s outlook.
Jonathan Taylor ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel)
I’m not entirely sure why Taylor is still on the Colts. They’re clearly rebuilding, and with Taylor set to turn 28 years old in January, it seems like he was a logical trade piece. Getting anything for him would’ve made sense, even if the return wasn’t as much as you’d expect for a player of his caliber.
With Taylor now officially around for at least the rest of the season, he should resume a bell-cow role in the team’s backfield. That could pay huge dividends vs. the Dolphins. This is one of the few remaining games where the Colts will be favored, and Taylor has historically done his best work in that split. He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.35 as a favorite, and that figure jumps to +8.83 when favored by more than a FG (per the Trends tool).
Add in an ownership projection of less than 10% on DraftKings, and he’s one of my favorite tournament options of the week.
Alvin Kamara ($5,000 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)
The Saints’ backfield remains a bit of a mess. The team cut Kendre Miller last week and signed Audric Estime, and Estime led the team in carries. Until Travis Etienne returns to the lineup, they don’t figure to have much of a rushing attack.
Kamara remains the constant. He’s not much of a runner at this point, logging seven carries or fewer in five straight games. However, he still gets decent usage as a receiver. He’s been targeted on 30% of his routes run, good for a 13% target share overall.
He’s another RB with a favorable matchup this week. The Panthers have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing RBs, though most of that damage has come on the ground. It means that Kamara isn’t a perfect fit for this matchup, but he’s still grading out well in our models and in SimLabs. He ultimately doesn’t need to do much at his current price tag.
Pictured: Christian McCaffrey
Photo Credit: Imagn
