Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment on a sack, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.
The Data
Here is the updated line data for each matchup in Week 10:
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Los Angeles Rams OL (#1 in Adjusted Line Yards, #8 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Arizona Cardinals DL
How the Rams approach the next few weeks offensively is one of the biggest questions in fantasy right now. They currently rank 7th in PROE but will likely be without both Puka Nacua and Davante Adams for at least the next four weeks (Nacua hasn’t officially been placed on IR yet but will be per the latest reports). They didn’t trade for a receiver at the trade deadline, so it’s tough to see how they move the ball through the air.
The good news is that their offensive line has been one of the best run-blocking units in the league. That’s partially a factor of teams selling out to stop the pass, plus their frequent usage of multiple tight ends. Either way, they’re the top team in adjusted line yards offensively and facing a Cardinals defense that ranks 27th in that stat.
Once again, the split between Kyren Williams ($7,100) and Blake Corum ($5,100) matters a lot for DFS, with the latter closing the gap in recent weeks. With the Rams favored by 9.5 points and their wide receivers all injured, there might even be enough work for both this week. I’ll mix them both in and even consider “stacking” them together for an ultra-contrarian build in a tiny percentage of my portfolio this week.
New Orleans Saints OL (#11 in Adjusted Line Yards, #1 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Carolina Panthers DL
This game has the third-highest total on this 10-game slate, and it is an intriguing less-obvious game stack. The game sets up fairly clearly for game stacks, with the matchup on the ground looking solid for the Panthers and the Saints passing game holding the edge.
That’s slightly contrary to the likeliest game flow (New Orleans is favored) but not enough to keep me away. Pass blocking is important for the prospects of a downfield receiver like Chris Olave ($7,000), whose 13.3-yard aDOT requires a decent bit of pass blocking in order for his routes to develop. Olave hasn’t been especially productive over the last four weeks, but the Saints have faced four defenses ranked inside the top 18 in adjusted sack rate. Carolina comes in at 32nd.
Obviously, that’s also good news for Tyler Shough ($5,600), and there’s a clear bring-back in Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard ($7,200). I’ll be stacking this game in some way this weekend.
Strong Defensive Line Matchups
Houston Texans DL (#1 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Cleveland Browns OL
Cleveland has been a gold mine for opposing fantasy defenses all season, and now they get their toughest matchup yet. Houston ($3,400) is second in adjusted sack rate (behind only Minnesota) and tied for first in total sacks with 29. The Browns have allowed at least five sacks in five of their nine games, with eight sacks allowed twice.
Interestingly, Deshaun Watson ($5,100), who is in line to return this week, has actually protected the ball fairly well. He’s thrown just three interceptions in eight games, and the Browns have given the ball away at a below-average rate. It certainly seems like a conscious choice to take sacks rather than force risky throws.
From an opposing defense standpoint, that probably hurts the Texans’ ceiling while raising the floor and median. You can’t score defensive touchdowns without turnovers, but you can score fairly well if you manage 5+ sacks. That makes the Texans a better cash game play than a tournament option, though the price is a bit annoying.
Green Bay Packers DL (#3 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Minnesota Vikings OL
Green Bay’s 26 sacks through nine games are fourth in the NFL. That stat is even more impressive when you consider that Micah Parsons still hasn’t made it back to the lineup, with a targeted Thanksgiving return. This week, they face a Vikings team with new (and old) QB Kirk Cousins ($5,300) back under center.
It will be interesting to see the impact the switch to Cousins has on the Vikings’ sack rate offensively. Obviously, Cousins won’t be running away from pressure. However, if he can make quicker reads and better decisions, he might be an improvement. Minnesota ranks 27th in adjusted sack rate despite an offensive line that Anderson ranked as above average before the season.
On the other hand, the line could actually be worse than anticipated, and going to an extremely immobile older quarterback only makes the situation worse. That level of uncertainty makes Green Bay ($2,900) an excellent tournament option. They’re reasonably priced with a very wide range of outcomes, which is exactly what we want to target at any position in tournaments.
Picture: Matthew Stafford, Rams offensive line
Photo Credit: Imagn
