The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
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Top Ceiling: Brock Purdy vs. Las Vegas Raiders – $6,800 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel
After their Week 8 bye, Brock Purdy and the 49ers return to a great spot at home against the Raiders. The Niners slipped up against the Falcons just before their bye after going 6-0 to start the season. In a nice bounce-back spot, Purdy has the top median, ceiling, and floor projections among the 22 QBs projected to start on the main slate in the FantasyLabs Consensus projections.
The 49ers have the highest implied team total on the slate, according to our Vegas Dashboard, and it should be an especially friendly matchup for Purdy, since the Raiders have allowed the third-most FanDuel points per game to opposing QBs. In eight games, opposing QBs have 16 passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns against the Raiders, with an average of over 250 passing yards per game.
Purdy has been rolling with 14 touchdowns and just two picks through his first six games, but he did struggle a bit against the Falcons in Week 7. He only had 14 DraftKings points in that matchup, but he had 17+ DraftKings points in each of his other six games.
His top two games this season both came at home, when he posted 28.5 DraftKings points against the Dolphins and 31.3 DraftKings points against the Cardinals. In his four home games, he has averaged 24.2 DraftKings points this season and will look to get his squad back on track after the bye.
Purdy has proven he can work effectively even when he’s missing multiple pass catchers, but pay close attention to the 49ers’ injury report since Mike Evans (Achilles), Deebo Samuel Sr. (hamstring), Christian Kirk (calf), and even Christian McCaffrey (hamstring) have all been limited or out of practice this week.
If you are looking for a strong QB-TE stack, Purdy and George Kittle could be a very busy core to build around. Some bargain receivers could also get in the mix, making them solid stackable plays with Purdy.
Top Value: Drew Lock vs. Arizona Cardinals – $4,000 on DraftKings, $6,300 on FanDuel
In the FantasyLabs Consensus projections, Drew Lock has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at quarterback on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel. Lock is one of several backups stepping into starting roles this week, and he gets a good matchup at home against the Cardinals, even though the Seahawks are on a short week.
The Seahawks ruled out Sam Darnold (quadriceps/ribs) for Sunday’s game, and Lock was able to get in a limited practice while recovering from an elbow injury he suffered during Week 7 prep. As long as he’s cleared to play, he’s expected to start against Arizona with Jalen Milroe as his primary backup.
Lock led the Seahawks to two wins earlier this season. He took over after Darnold’s exit in the season opener, producing 12.8 DraftKings points against the Patriots. He was even sharper in Week 2, when he also faced the Cardinals and threw for 235 yards and three touchdowns.
The Cardinals have allowed the second-most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to opposing QBs, so it’s a great matchup to lean into if you want to build around a bargain QB. In his two games earlier this season, Lock leaned heavily on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, throwing all four of his touchdowns to JSN. At the minimum salary of only $4,000 on DraftKings, Lock leaves you with plenty of salary space to stuff the rest of your roster with superstars.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Jahmyr Gibbs at Miami Dolphins – $10,000 on DraftKings, $10,200 on FanDuel
As has regularly been the case all season, Gibbs has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at running back on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the FantasyLabs Consensus projections. His salary has hit five figures on both sites, but he has been so consistently elite that he still deserves consideration on this slate, especially against the Dolphins.
Gibbs has been an absolute fantasy beast in his first season without David Montgomery working alongside him in the backfield. He has over 100 combined rushing and receiving yards in six of his seven games this season. Last week, he had 27.8 DraftKings points against the Vikings, who had been elite against running backs before allowing him to go off for 153 rushing yards and a touchdown on 23 carries.
His rushing production alone would make him an elite option, but he is also heavily involved in the passing game. He has caught at least five passes in five games this season. He only had two catches last week since the game wasn’t quite as pass-heavy as some of the Lions’ other contests this season, but he still brings elite upside as a receiver as well.
Gibbs has had under 20 DraftKings points in only one game all season, and he has gone over 40 DraftKings points twice. His high floor and high ceiling make him worth considering even though he does take such a big chunk of your salary.
He’s in an especially juicy matchup against the Dolphins, who have allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points per game to running backs this season. Opposing RBs have eight touchdowns in seven games against the Dolphins and have averaged 105.8 rushing yards per game.
Gibbs should have the space to produce another monster performance, so if you can make his salary work, he’s worth considering.
Top Value: Jonah Coleman at Carolina Panthers – $5,300 on DraftKings, $6,300 on FanDuel
Jonah Coleman has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all running backs on DraftKings, along with an 86% Bargain Rating. He’s much more affordable there than on FanDuel. He still brings good upside and potential on FanDuel, but his salary is a little higher, leaving Tyler Allgeier as a better value play on that site.
It’s easy to see Coleman’s potential, though, and he gets a very favorable matchup against the Panthers. The Broncos snagged him out of Washington in the fourth round of the 2026 NFL Draft. After returning in Week 7 from his four-game stint on IR, Coleman looks ready to carry the workload for the first-place Broncos for the next several weeks.
Last week at home against the Chiefs, Coleman led the team in both rushing and receiving yards. He ended up with 41 yards and a touchdown on 11 carries, and he also caught four of his five targets for 63 yards. He finished with a season-high 20.4 DraftKings points and seems to have solidified his spot at the top of the depth chart.
With RJ Harvey (knee) on IR and missing at least the next three games, Coleman and veteran J.K. Dobbins will share time in the backfield, but Coleman has looked much more effective than Dobbins this year. Harvey was working mostly on passing downs, but after Coleman’s success as a receiver against Kansas City, it looks like he can handle those reps effectively.
Coleman should be in a smash spot Sunday against the Panthers, who have allowed the second-most DraftKings points per game to running backs this season. In seven games, opposing running backs have scored 11 touchdowns, including five in the last two weeks.
If his backfield takeover continues, Coleman will be a great value option, especially on DraftKings.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Puka Nacua vs. Los Angeles Chargers – $8,800 on DraftKings, $9,200 on FanDuel
The Rams handled the Chargers last week to improve to 4-4 on the season, and they’ll visit the Commanders in Week 9. In that matchup in D.C., Nacua has the highest Plus/Minus projection at wide receiver on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the FantasyLabs Consensus Projections. He also has the highest salary and brings the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at the position.
The Rams have been without wide receiver Davante Adams (hamstring) for the last two weeks, leaving a huge workload for Nacua. He played through a calf injury in Week 7 against the Raiders but still had 10 targets, which he converted into eight catches for 68 yards and a touchdown. In Week 8, he caught 11 of his 12 targets for 80 yards and a touchdown.
Nacua missed two weeks due to a hip injury earlier this season, but he has posted over 20 DraftKings points in four of his five games since returning. His best showing during that stretch was a massive 17-catch game against the Bills, which resulted in 40.7 DraftKings points.
He is projected to be heavily targeted again this week against the Commanders, who have allowed seven touchdown catches in seven games to wide receivers. He will remain a strong play for as long as Adams is out, since he gets so much volume in the Rams’ passing game.
Top Value: Adonai Mitchell at Kansas City Chiefs – $4,500 on DraftKings, $5,400 on FanDuel
The Jets are headed to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs, as both teams try to bounce back after multiple losses. The Jets lost a pair of high-scoring games to the Dolphins and Raiders over the last two weeks, and it looks likely that they’ll be without Garrett Wilson (concussion) for this matchup after he entered the NFL concussion protocol midweek. In his absence, both Mitchell and Omar Cooper Jr. stand out as great values for their matchup against the Chiefs.
Mitchell has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all wide receivers on DraftKings in the FantasyLabs Consensus projections, and he has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of receivers with salaries under $6,000 on FanDuel.
Last year, after joining the Jets at the trade deadline, Mitchell had some big games filling in for Wilson. He’s also been very solid this season, although he did miss time with a finger injury. He started the year with games of 60 and 63 yards before the injury but didn’t have a catch in Week 7 in his first game back.
He looked much better in Week 8, catching seven of his nine targets for 142 yards, a touchdown, and 30.2 DraftKings points in the Jets’ loss to the Raiders. Cooper didn’t get a single target in that game after posting over 100 yards and a touchdown in back-to-back games. Without Wilson, there should be enough work for both players against the Chiefs, even though Kansas City has done a very good job of limiting wide receiver production so far this season.
In addition to the Jets’ duo, some other value plays that stand out on FanDuel include Jalen Coker of the Panthers and Caleb Douglas of the Dolphins. On DraftKings, Xavier Worthy of the Chiefs and Antonio Williams of the Commanders have very strong Plus/Minus projections at affordable salaries.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Brock Bowers at San Francisco 49ers – $7,900 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel
Bowers has the top median, ceiling, and floor projections at tight end in the FantasyLabs Consensus projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has consistently been the focal point of the Raiders offense all season, and he has at least six catches in all but one of his six games this season.
Last week, Bowers scored two touchdowns while catching seven of his 10 targets for 92 yards and 28.2 DraftKings points. He has produced over 20 DraftKings points in four of his six contests, averaging 21.8 DraftKings points per game.
The 49ers have been one of the 10 hardest matchups for tight ends this season, but due to his consistent volume, Bowers remains a reliable pay-up play with a high ceiling in Week 9.
This week, Bowers gets the edge over Trey McBride, since McBride is in a tough matchup against the Seahawks’ secondary and is working with a new QB after Gardner Minshew II took over for Jacoby Brissett, who has since been traded to Baltimore.
Top Value: George Kittle vs. Las Vegas Raiders – $6,000 on DraftKings, $6,700 on FanDuel
Even though he isn’t quite as cheap as some of the other value plays, Kittle has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at tight end in the FantasyLabs Consensus projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Kittle could have to carry the load with all the 49ers’ injuries, and he has proven to be up to the task for most of this season.
Kittle has over 15 DraftKings points in five of his six games since his remarkable Week 1 return, which came so soon after the Achilles injury that ended his 2025 season. He caught eight of 10 targets for 88 yards against the Falcons before the Week 8 bye. He didn’t get into the end zone in that matchup but had five touchdowns in five games from Week 2 through Week 6.
The Raiders have allowed eight touchdowns to tight ends in eight games this year and the fourth-most DraftKings points per game to the position. Opposing tight ends have averaged 6.9 catches and 55.8 receiving yards per game.
If you want a cheaper value at tight end, the projections point to Dalton Schultz on DraftKings and Travis Kelce or Chig Okonkwo on FanDuel.
Pictured: Brock Purdy
Photo Credit: Imagn
