Sunday’s main slate for Week 9 features 11 games. Below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 9.
Specifically, I will be focusing on ownership projections and leverage scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify undervalued targets. Leverage scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
Note: These leverage scores can also change as projected ownership and projections change throughout the weekend.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
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Drake Maye ($7,000) + Demario Douglas ($4,800) + Matthew Golden ($7,000)
The Patriots are hosting the Packers this Sunday, and this clash of pass-first offenses should produce a ton of points. Both teams rank in the top 12 in PROE, and this game carries a 45.5-point total. The Packers are giving up the fifth-fewest yards per pass (5.2), but they rank sixth in pace, so Maye should benefit from playing in an up-tempo setting.
After back-to-back performances of single-digit DraftKings points to open the season, Maye has been outstanding, scoring 29.6 DraftKings PPG in his last five games. Even with the two duds to begin the year, Maye is the No. 3 quarterback for fantasy football this season. The 24-year-old ranks seventh in YPA (8.5), and he has thrown 15 touchdowns to eight picks. As a rusher, Maye ranks third among quarterbacks in carries (46), and he has found the end zone with his legs in three of his last four games.
The Patriots are dealing with many injuries to their pass catchers, but Maye has continued to deliver over the last month with players in and out of the lineup, and he should do so again this weekend. Romeo Doubs (shoulder) is on IR, and both A.J. Brown (ankle/knee) and Hunter Henry (foot) are trending towards being out, as they have yet to practice this week as of Thursday. Mack Hollins (calf) has been a limited participant at practice this week and may be back, but regardless of his status, Douglas should be Maye’s main target.
With the Patriots dealing with many injuries, Douglas has been great recently, scoring 22.5, 20.6, 5.3, and 16.6 DraftKings points in his last four games while seeing a 17.1% target share. The receiver has had a real nose for the end zone, scoring four touchdowns during this span. With Brown, Henry, and Doubs off the field this season, Douglas has been ultra-efficient, averaging 3.5 YPRR compared to his season average of 1.8.
On the other side, with Christian Gonzalez likely to spend most of his time covering Christian Watson, Jordan Love should naturally rely on Golden in this matchup. After an underwhelming rookie season, Golden has been awesome this season, ranking as the No. 7 scoring receiver for fantasy football. Golden has topped 20 DraftKings points in four of his last six games, and his usage has been incredible. Not only is he leading the Packers with a 25.3% target share this season, but he also leads the NFL in red-zone targets (32) and targets over 20 yards (25). Golden has scored four touchdowns, and he now meets a Patriots defense that is allowing the fifth-most touchdowns to receivers (9). In this spot, Golden has multiple-touchdown upside.
Golden is hovering around 10% ownership in our projections, but both Maye and Douglas are slated for sub-5% ownership on DraftKings.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Dylan Sampson ($4,900)
Since making his season debut two weeks ago, Sampson has been productive, scoring 10.7 DraftKings points vs. the Titans and 12.9 DraftKings points vs. the Steelers. Sampson has produced 77 and 69 scrimmage yards in these games.
Sampson has only seen seven carries, but he has made the most of those rushes, averaging 7.4 YPC. Most of Sampson’s production has come in the passing game, as he has caught all nine of his targets for 94 yards. Sampson is running a route on 47.7% of his team’s dropbacks, and he is commanding a target on 21% of those routes. Sampson is averaging 2.2 YPRR, which ranks ninth among all the backs who have run 20+ routes. Furthermore, Sampson is scoring 1.6 DraftKings points per touch, which ranks 10th at his position.
Sampson is locked in as the Browns’ main pass-catching back, and he should see a bunch of checkdowns with Shedeur Sanders at quarterback this Sunday vs. the Saints, who rank second in pace and 19th in defensive EPA per play this season. With Sanders under center last season, Sampson garnered a target on a terrific 27% of his routes.
On top of the elite receiving role, there is a chance the Browns start using Sampson more as a rusher, given Quinshon Judkins’ lackluster play. Judkins is averaging 3.3 YPC this season, which ranks 56th of the 71 backs who have seen 20+ carries.
Giving Sampson more carries makes a ton of sense, and getting ahead of this possible backfield shift could really pay off this weekend. If Sampson ends up seeing 10+ touches, he should destroy his cheap price tag, and our projections have him drawing essentially no ownership.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Rashee Rice ($6,400)
In his return from a two-game absence due to a hamstring injury, Rice didn’t miss a beat this past Sunday, catching 7-of-8 targets for 53 yards and a touchdown in a tough matchup vs. the Broncos, resulting in a season-high 18.3 DraftKings points. This is a contract year for Rice, and he has been working hard to prove his worth to the Chiefs, scoring 9.9, 12.3, 15.8, and 18.3 DraftKings points in the four games he hasn’t exited with an injury.
Rice is seeing a target on 22% of his routes and has drawn four red-zone targets. The receiver is averaging 2.2 YPRR, and he meets a Jets defense this weekend that is trending in the wrong direction. After a strong start, New York has allowed the second-most yards per pass (9.7) and the second-most passing touchdowns (5) over the last two weeks while facing the Dolphins and Raiders. These teams scored 28 and 38 points, respectively, and the Chiefs unsurprisingly boast a large implied team total of 28.5 points vs. New York, which is the second-highest on the slate.
Rice is averaging 17 DraftKings PPG in career games with an implied team total of 28+ points (eight games), according to the Trends Tool, and our projections have him drawing only around 9% ownership on DraftKings.
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Greg Dulcich ($3,100)
As the Dolphins offense has improved, so has Dulcich. In his last five games, the tight end has scored 10.5, 0, 9.7, 13.6, and 8.3 DraftKings points. That catchless performance mixed in there was very excusable, too, as it came against the Vikings’ league-best defense, who are giving up the fewest catches to tight ends this season (22).
Dulcich’s role has been strong this season. He is seeing a target on 20% of his routes while running a route on 59% of his team’s dropbacks. The tight end has seen five red-zone targets and three targets over 20 yards. Dulcich is averaging 1.9 YPRR, which ranks 13th among tight ends who have run 20+ routes. This Sunday, he gets the best possible matchup for a tight end, going against the Lions.
Detroit is yielding the most catches (61), yards (684), and touchdowns (11) to tight ends. The Lions have allowed nine different tight ends to score 12+ DraftKings points in just seven games.
Detroit ranks eighth in pace, and this game carries the third-highest total on the slate (50.5 points). The Dolphins are also likely to air it out as seven-point underdogs. Dulcich should score nothing less than 10 DraftKings points in this spot, and he is arguably the best tight end value on the slate. But with George Kittle expected to be super chalky, Dulcich is only slated for around 7% ownership according to our projections.
Dulcich has a ton of appeal as a standalone play, and he is a terrific player to utilize when game-stacking this Dolphins vs. Lions matchup.
Pictured: Drake Maye
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
