Week 9 NFL DFS QB Breakdown: Top Cash Game and Tournament Picks

The quarterback position is one of the most flexible in NFL DFS. You can go in a variety of different ways. Do you pay up for one of the top studs or try to save some money with a value option? Do you eat the chalk or look for a low-owned option with upside? There’s no 100% one-size-fits-all answer, so each slate and contest type is going to require thought and consideration.

In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.

As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

Top NFL DFS Cash Game Picks

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Dak Prescott ($6,500 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)

The Cowboys are coming off a shocking loss last week. They led by 14 points in the fourth quarter, and in the history of the franchise, they had never blown a lead of 14+ in the fourth when playing at home. They were 202-0-1 in that split, but Gardner Minshew came off the bench to hand them their first ever loss. Minshew racked up two touchdowns in the final 2:11 of regulation, and the team ultimately sealed the deal with a field goal in overtime.

Prescott ultimately had a mediocre performance in Week 8. He only attempted 29 passes, and he finished with 195 yards and one touchdown. He added 20 yards and a score on the ground, which kept his fantasy numbers from being a disaster. Still, his 19.8 DraftKings points resulted in a negative Plus/Minus.

While Prescott struggled in an elite matchup, he has a strong rebound chance this week vs. the Colts. They are clearly waiving the white flag on the season, and they were demolished by the Jaguars last week. The Cowboys are currently listed as six-point road favorites, and their 28.5-point implied team total ranks fourth on the slate. Indianapolis ranks 20th in EPA per pass defensively, and that number could fall with the team selling off pieces before the trade deadline.

Prescott ultimately ranks first at the position in projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He also has the top ceiling projection at the position, despite ranking merely fourth in terms of salary.

Jared Goff ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)

Goff is coming off his worst game of the season last week. He threw his first interception of the year, and he averaged a season-low 6.0 adjusted yards per attempt. He finished with just 10.04 DraftKings points after scoring at least 19.36 DraftKings points in the previous five weeks.

Of course, that matchup was against the Vikings. Their defense is the best in football, and they can make any QB look mortal.

Goff will not have the same issues this week vs. the Dolphins. Miami ranks dead last in EPA per pass defensively, and they’ve allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. The Lions are implied for 28.75 points in this contest, which is tied for the second-best mark on the slate.

Joe Burrow lit up Miami for 462 yards and five touchdowns last week. While Goff probably doesn’t have that type of upside, there’s no reason he can’t put together a big game. He is projected for the most ownership at the position, but he is available at a slight discount to Prescott on DraftKings.

Top NFL DFS Tournament Picks

Malik Willis ($5,100 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)

On the other side of that matchup, the Dolphins are an interesting target for fantasy purposes. The Lions defense has looked improved the past two weeks, but they’ve still been an extremely exploitable matchup for most of the year. Against quarterbacks specifically, no team has allowed more fantasy points per game.

The Dolphins offense is also trending up. They’ve averaged more than 23 points over their past three contests after sitting at just 11.5 through their first four. Willis has posted a positive Plus/Minus in all three of those outings, and he’s had more than 20 DraftKings points in two of them.

Willis remains one of the most dangerous runners at the position. He didn’t use his legs much last week, but he averaged more than 55 yards and a touchdown over his two previous games. That gives him far more upside than his price tag suggests.

Willis stands out as a nice combination of floor and ceiling. He ranks second at the position in projected Plus/Minus, and he’s also second in SimLabs optimal lineup rate.

Brock Purdy ($6,800 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)

The 49ers are coming off a much-needed bye in Week 8. They have been hit hard by injuries this season, particularly at receiver. It’s possible they get a bit of help at the position this week, with Mike Evans potentially returning to the lineup.

Regardless of Evans’ status, Purdy has the potential for a huge day. Purdy has been one of the best quarterbacks in football this season, leading all passers in Success Rate, QBR, and adjusted net yards per attempt. For fantasy purposes, he’s third at the position in fantasy points per game.

He draws a matchup vs. the Raiders in Week 9, who have been lit up defensively in recent weeks. They’re dead last in EPA per play defensively from Week 4 on, the 49ers lead the slate with a 31.25 implied team total. Purdy has unsurprisingly fared well when the 49ers are expected to score plenty of points, averaging a Plus/Minus of +2.05 with an implied team total of at least 27.5 (per the Trends tool).

The only real drawback with Purdy is his price tag. He’s the second-most-expensive option at quarterback in a week with a ton of cheap options.   

Matthew Stafford ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)

Stafford has not exactly looked like last year’s MVP-winning version of himself this season. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in three straight games, and he’s merely QB16 in fantasy points per game. He’s dealing with absences to Davante Adams and Terrance Ferguson, and his numbers are down virtually across the board.

Perhaps a matchup vs. the Commanders will help him turn things around. The Rams are implied for a healthy 26.5 points, and the Commanders have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. That number would be even higher if not for getting to face Tanner McKee two weeks ago.

Washington also suffered a big defensive injury during practice last week, with Daron Payne suffering a Jones fracture. Their defense could be even worse moving forward, so they could be an even better matchup than they seem on paper.

Stafford ultimately has the fourth-highest optimal lineup rate in Sim Labs, just beating out Purdy. He’s also projected for roughly 5% less ownership than Purdy, making him an interesting pivot.

Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Picks With Upside

Drew Lock ($4,000 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel)

October may be in the rearview mirror, but Locktober is alive and well. Lock will get to fill in for an injured Sam Darnold in Week 9, and we’ve seen Lock succeed in this offense to start the year. He had 21.4 fantasy points in his only start this season, and his numbers are actually better than Darnold’s so far this season. It’s not quite a quarterback controversy in Seattle, but if Lock puts together another strong showing, Darnold could end up on the hot seat.

Even without Darnold, the Seahawks are 8.5-point home favorites vs. the Cardinals. It makes them the second-largest favorites of the week, and they’re expected to do a fair bit of scoring (24.0 points). The Cardinals have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs, while their secondary has absolutely no answers for Jaxon Smith-Njigba. As long as Lock can get him the ball – just like he did in Week 2 – he should be just fine. It makes him an interesting fantasy target at a minimum salary on DraftKings.

Shedeur Sanders ($4,000 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel)

Sanders is another min-priced option who warrants some consideration this week. Lock should draw most of the ownership in this price range, while Joe Milton will also receive some interest. As a result, we have Sanders projected for less than 2% ownership across the industry.

Sanders did little to get people excited about his future prospects with his play last year. However, he was a top college arm, and he’s shown some flashes in the preseason. Sanders will also have more talent at his disposal than he had at any point as a rookie, so he could surprise some people in Week 9.

That said, the most appealing factor for Sanders is the matchup. He’s taking on the Saints, who are 23rd in EPA per pass attempt defensively. That’s not quite as bad as they’ve been vs. the run, but it’s still a matchup that Sanders can take advantage of. He doesn’t need to do much to pay off his current salary, particularly on DraftKings. 

Jayden Daniels ($6,000 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel)

Daniels is another QB who is priced at a massive discount on DraftKings. His $6,000 salary comes with a position-best 97% Bargain Rating, yet he’s still projected for less than 3% ownership.

Daniels has not been the same fantasy force that he was as a rookie, but he’s been impressive when healthy this year. Specifically, he’s scored at least 24.0 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, including a 100-yard, two-rushing-touchdown performance vs. the Giants. His legs will always give him an elite ceiling for fantasy. The Rams are not a particularly exciting matchup, but Daniels stands out as undervalued at this salary.

Pictured: Jared Goff
Photo Credit: Imagn