Tight end is one of the most difficult positions to nail down each week. It’s a position where you can spend all the way up, pay all the way down, or look somewhere in between. Tight ends derive a bunch of their value from scoring touchdowns, which can be difficult to predict on a week-to-week basis.
In this piece, I highlight tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Trey McBride ($7,400 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)
McBride has had some challengers to his spot atop the TE rankings this season. That said, he has remained the most consistent producer. He leads the position with a 29% target share, and he’s averaged 18.6 PPR points per game.
McBride is coming off his best game of the season last week. He racked up 13 targets vs. the Broncos, which he turned into 10 catches, 111 yards, and a touchdown. He’s had double-digit targets in all but one game this season, and he just barely missed with nine in the lone exception.
McBride benefits from one of the best possible matchups this week vs. the Cowboys. Their defense has been extremely exploitable this season, ranking 31st in EPA per pass. However, their offense has been explosive, which is an excellent combination for fantasy purposes. As a result, this game is tied for a slate-best 54.5-point total.
McBride stands out as an easy choice on FanDuel, where his $7,300 price tag comes with a 99% Bargain Rating. But even at $7,400 on DraftKings, he still manages to lead the position in projected Plus/Minus. He combines the safest floor at tight end with an elite ceiling, especially in such a phenomenal matchup.
Hunter Henry ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)
Henry has pretty quietly been an excellent value of late. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games, scoring at least 11.2 DraftKings points in each. He has benefitted greatly from the improved play of Drake Maye, who has gone back to playing at an elite level over that time frame.
Henry could be poised for an increase in value in Week 8. A.J. Brown is currently listed as questionable, and there’s a very real chance he’s out of the lineup. He missed practice on both Thursday and Friday, and players who don’t practice to end the week are often ruled out.
Even with Brown posting a 27% target share over the past two weeks, Henry has still managed a respectable 19% mark. That’s more than enough to make him relevant vs. the Dolphins. They’re dead last in EPA per play defensively, and they’ve allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to the position. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.5.
Ultimately, Henry trails only McBride in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus, and he’s No. 3 on FanDuel. He’s the best option if you’re not spending up at the position.
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Mark Andrews ($3,400 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)
The game between the Ravens and Bills stands out as a clear target for DFS players this week. Its 54.5-point total is tied for the top mark with Cardinals-Cowboys, and it features just a three-point spread. It suggests a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair, which is the best type of game for fantasy purposes.
The Ravens benefit from the better matchup of the two teams. Buffalo’s defense has been dreadful for most of the year. They’re currently dead last in defensive EPA, and they’re No. 29 vs. the pass.
Most of the Bills’ struggles have come against wide receivers, but they haven’t been much better against tight ends. They’ve allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game to the position. It makes Andrews an interesting option, especially with Lamar Jackson back at quarterback. Andrews struggled to get anything going with Tyler Huntley over the past three weeks, but he had a 24% target share with Jackson under center from Weeks 1 through 4.
Add in a very affordable price tag, and Andrews ranks third on DraftKings in Sim Labs optimal lineup rate.
Cade Otton ($3,400 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel)
Otton is another cheap TE target with upside. The Buccaneers barely had to throw the ball last week, with their defense and running game powering them to an easy victory over the Panthers. Baker Mayfield attempted just 11 passes, and the team finished with less than 70 net passing yards.
With that in mind, we’re not entirely sure how the offense is going to look without Emeka Egbuka for the second straight week. Otton had just an 11% target share sans Egbuka in Week 7, but that figure could get cranked way up with more volume. We saw Otton emerge as one of Mayfield’s go-to targets two years ago when the team was dealing with WR injuries.
Otton ranks third on DraftKings in projected Plus/Minus, just narrowly edging out Andrews at the same price tag. He’s $400 cheaper than Andrews on FanDuel, giving him the clear edge on that site.
Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Picks With Upside
Tyler Higbee ($3,800 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel)
You can add Higbee to the “cheap TE with upside” category for Week 8. He didn’t see a huge uptick in opportunities with Davante Adams sidelined in Week 7. He had just a 56% route participation vs. the Raiders, while he finished with just a 10% target share.
That said, the Rams pretty thoroughly dominated that contest, so they didn’t need a ton from Higbee. He had an 83% route participation the week prior, while his target share has been as high as 21% this season.
It makes him an interesting buy-low candidate vs. the Chargers. He’s projected for less than 3% ownership on DraftKings, and he has the second-largest discrepancy between projected ownership and optimal lineup rate.
Travis Kelce ($5,000 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel)
The Chiefs are going to get back Rashee Rice this week, which is a clear negative for Kelce. Rice’s numbers are down to start this season, but he has been a target hog for most of his Chiefs’ tenure. His return should ultimately mean less looks for Kelce moving forward.
However, Kelce is an interesting option in this matchup vs. the Broncos. Denver has an outstanding pass defense, but they have struggled a bit vs. tight ends. They were just torched by McBride last week, and they’ve allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to the position this season.
Kelce is not the same player that he was in his prime, so I wouldn’t expect a McBride-like performance. However, he still has a bit of a ceiling. He turned in a TE1 performance back in Week 2, and he still has a very respectable 20% target share for the year.
Dalton Kincaid ($5,300 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)
Everyone who is expected to play meaningful snaps for the Bills and Ravens has some appeal this week. It remains to be seen if Kincaid is one of them. He’s officially listed as questionable, though he has practiced on a limited basis. It seems likely that he’s in the lineup, though a final determination won’t be made until Sunday.
At times this season, Kincaid has looked like a top-flight fantasy TE. He’s still not an every-snap player for the Bills – he splits time with Dawson Knox at the position – but he’s become a favorite target of Josh Allen. He was targeted on at least 27% of his routes run (TPRR) in his first two contests, and he responded with a top-five finish at tight end in both weeks.
Kincaid was quiet over the next three weeks, but he bounced back with a 27% target share and 36% TPRR in his latest outing. He only managed 7.3 FanDuel points in that contest, but it’s still an encouraging sign for his prospects moving forward.
Kincaid stands out as an excellent value on FanDuel, where his $5,600 price tag comes with a 99% Bargain Rating. He’s fifth at the position in FanDuel optimal lineup rate, while his ownership projection is a very reasonable 5.5%.
Pictured: Trey McBride
Photo Credit: Imagn
