The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Josh Allen vs. Baltimore Ravens – $7,700 on DraftKings, $9,400 on FanDuel
After his Week 7 bye, Josh Allen reclaims the top spot in the QB projections, with the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections among the 22 QBs projected to start on the main slate. He’s still very affordable on DraftKings, where he has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection, and he brings an elite ceiling in Sunday’s big home game against the Ravens.
The Bills-Ravens matchup is tied with the Cardinals-Cowboys game for the highest over/under on the slate, according to our Vegas Dashboard, and both games should have plenty of points put on the board. Allen has excelled in high-scoring games and can produce monster numbers with both his rushing and his passing.
Allen topped 34 DraftKings points in three of his first six games this season, averaging 28.7 DraftKings points per contest. He also averaged 250.7 passing yards and 40 rushing yards per game while totaling nine passing touchdowns and eight rushing touchdowns.
He will likely get top receiver DJ Moore back from a shoulder injury after the bye, giving him even more options to work with in the passing game. Just before the bye, he was contained in his most recent game against the Raiders but still managed 18.3 DraftKings points. With such a high floor and a great ceiling as a dual-threat producer, he is a great option to build around in almost any matchup.
In a spotlight matchup at home against Baltimore, Allen makes a lot of sense, especially after Joe Burrow carved up the Ravens in the second half last week. Opposing QBs have 10 touchdowns in seven games against the Ravens with an average of over 235 passing yards per game.
If you are looking for a strong QB-WR stack, you can target Allen along with Moore in his return, especially if he doesn’t get an injury designation.
Top Value: Dak Prescott at Detroit Lions – $6,000 on DraftKings, $7,600 on FanDuel
In the FantasyLabs Consensus projections, Dak Prescott has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at quarterback on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He’s the only QB on DraftKings with a higher Plus/Minus than Allen and matches more Pro Trends than any other QB on Sunday’s slate.
The Cowboys QB is coming off a strong Monday Night Football performance and gets a favorable matchup against the Cardinals in this week’s other high-scoring game. He has the second-highest median, ceiling and floor projections in the FantasyLabs Consensus projections at the position, behind only Allen.
Last week, Prescott threw for 212 passing yards and three touchdowns to earn 23.28 fantasy points on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel for the fourth time in his last six games.
After three scores last week, he has 13 passing touchdowns against just five interceptions, and his premium receiver duo of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens continues to give him a high ceiling every week.
Dak has a great matchup this week against the Cardinals, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to QBs this season. Opposing QBs have averaged 243.7 passing yards per game and thrown a total of 17 passing touchdowns in seven games, along with a pair of rushing scores.
It’s a great spot for Dak to prove the Cowboys are headed in the right direction after a few tough losses over the last month, and it should be a big game for the Cowboys’ offense, especially at home.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Jahmyr Gibbs vs. Green Bay Packers – $9,500 on DraftKings, $9,300 on FanDuel
As has regularly been the case all season, Gibbs has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at running back on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the FantasyLabs Consensus projections. He also has the highest Plus/Minus projection on both sites this week, despite a very tough matchup against the Vikings.
Gibbs has been an absolute fantasy beast in his first season without David Montgomery working alongside him in the backfield. He has over 100 combined rushing and receiving yards in five of his six games this season, and last week, he had 21.3 DraftKings points against the Packers, even though he didn’t get into the end zone. He ran for 116 yards on a season-high 29 carries and added five catches for 27 more yards.
His rushing production alone would make him an elite option, but he is also heavily involved in the passing game. He has caught at least five passes in five of his six games this season, averaging 5.3 catches on 6.7 targets per contest.
Last week, he helped the Lions take down the Packers, and this week, he has another important divisional matchup against the Vikings. Minnesota’s defense has been elite on every level this season and has allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs. Opposing RBs have scored three rushing touchdowns against them in their last three games, though, and Jonathan Taylor and Ollie Gordon II each had good games against them during that stretch.
Despite the tough matchup, Gibbs has been good enough to trust and build around as a pay-up play. If you have the salary available, Gibbs is once again a great pay-up play with a high ceiling in this matchup and the ability to outproduce even his elevated salary-based expectations.
Top Value: Bhayshul Tuten vs. Indianapolis Colts – $5,900 on DraftKings, $6,900 on FanDuel
In another important divisional matchup on Sunday, Tuten and the Jaguars are back in Jacksonville after two weeks in London and a bye week. Tuten ranks in the top five in Projected Plus/Minus at running back on DraftKings and leads all running backs under $6,000. On FanDuel, he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus among running backs under $7,000.
The Colts have been selling off pieces this week, including key run-stopper DeForest Buckner, and it should be a favorable spot for Tuten to continue his breakout season. The second-year running back has shared a little work with Chris Rodriguez Jr., but like Gibbs, he has been involved and productive as both a rusher and receiver.
Tuten had a season-high 24.7 DraftKings points with a pair of receiving touchdowns on his four catches for 48 yards in his Week 6 game against the Texans, just before the bye week. Even though he only had 39 rushing yards on his 12 carries, he still had his best fantasy day of the year thanks to his receiving scores.
Before that game, though, Tuten had posted over 70 rushing yards in three straight games and produced over 11 DraftKings points in strong showings against the Eagles, Bengals, and Patriots. Tuten exceeded salary-based expectations in five straight games.
Tuten has posted multiple receptions every week since Week 1 and has four total touchdowns in those five games. The Colts have allowed six RB touchdowns in their seven games this season and an average of 3.4 catches per contest to opposing RBs as well.
The Jaguars are the second-heaviest favorite on the main slate this week, and if they play from ahead as expected, Tuten should be in position for another heavy workload and big game.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Puka Nacua vs. Los Angeles Chargers – $8,600 on DraftKings, $9,100 on FanDuel
As the Rams take on the winless Chargers in this week’s battle for Los Angeles, Nacua has the highest Plus/Minus projection at wide receiver on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the FantasyLabs Consensus Projections. Since he also has the highest salary, he brings the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at the position as well.
In Week 6, the Rams lost receiver Davante Adams (hamstring) to a significant injury, and without him, the Rams will need to rely even more heavily on Nacua for the next several weeks. Last week, Nacua was questionable for the matchup against the Raiders due to a calf injury, but he still had 10 targets, which he converted into eight catches for 68 yards and a touchdown.
He finished that game with over 20 DraftKings points for the third time in his four games since returning from a two-game absence due to a hip injury. While he may still be less than 100%, he should continue to get all the targets he can handle.
In Week 5, he had a massive 24 targets against the Bills, catching 17 passes for 138 yards and 40.7 DraftKings points, reminding everyone of his dominant fantasy ceiling. If he’s healthy and the focal point of the offense, he brings an extremely high ceiling this week against the Chargers.
The Chargers have allowed six wide receiver touchdowns in six games this year, and Nacua has both a high ceiling and high floor at his elevated salary.
Top Value: Zay Flowers at Buffalo Bills – $7,200 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel
While he isn’t a cheap option, Zay Flowers offers very good value this week against the Bills, and he brings the second-highest Plus/Minus projection of all WRs on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the FantasyLabs Consensus projections.
Flowers will get a big boost for this matchup with Lamar Jackson ready to return from his injury, but Flowers has been flourishing in offensive coordinator Declan Doyle’s system even without his superstar QB to get him the ball.
Flowers has the fourth-highest target share in the entire NFL, behind superstars Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua, along with DeVonta Smith of the Eagles. In six games, Flowers has 53 targets, and he has at least nine targets in four consecutive weeks.
Flowers had a season-best 30.7 DraftKings points last week against the Bengals, catching eight of his 11 targets for 137 yards and his third touchdown of the year. He had 118 receiving yards and a touchdown in the last game that Jackson played as well, so he can put up big games with or without Lamar.
The ceiling of the offense will be higher, though, with Jackson’s return, and the matchup with the Bills should be a juicy one for fantasy contributors on both sides. The Bills allowed multiple wide receiver touchdowns in each of their last three games and have given up 11 touchdowns in six games this season. Wide receivers have averaged a robust 173.8 yards against them per game.
Flowers also has a good individual history against the Bills. He went off for seven catches for 143 yards and a touchdown against them in Week 1 of last season.
While he is an excellent value, Flowers isn’t a cheap play. Some cheaper receivers who stand out on DraftKings are Malik Washington of the Dolphins, Kendrick Bourne of the Cardinals, and Ja’Kobi Lane of the Ravens. On FanDuel, Germie Bernard has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all receivers, with Chris Godwin Jr., Ryan Flournoy, and Wan’Dale Robinson also projecting as strong cheap plays.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Trey McBride at Dallas Cowboys – $7,400 on DraftKings, $7,300 on FanDuel
McBride once again has the top median, ceiling, and floor projections at tight end in the FantasyLabs Consensus projections. He is in the juicy Cardinals-Cowboys matchup that should be full of fantasy production on both sides, and he’s almost always a strong option to build around if you have the salary available.
McBride has exceeded salary-based expectations in all but one of his games this season, and last week, he went off for another huge game with 10 catches for 111 yards and a touchdown against the Broncos.
He has at least seven catches and at least 10 DraftKings points every week and has put up over 16 DraftKings points in five of his seven games. His 30.1 DraftKings points last week were a new season high, and he should continue to get plenty of targets after the trade of Marvin Harrison Jr. opened up even more looks.
The Cowboys have been a mostly neutral matchup for tight ends this season, but McBride’s workload is heavy enough that he’s a good option in almost any matchup if you have the salary available.
Top Value: Brenton Strange vs. Indianapolis Colts – $4,000 on DraftKings, $5,100 on FanDuel
Strange has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at tight end in the FantasyLabs Consensus projections on DraftKings. He also has an 80% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where he brings very good upside even though his Projected Plus/Minus trails those of the elite pay-up options on that site.
Strange had three straight strong showings before the Jaguars’ bye week, catching a total of 19 passes on 23 targets over three matchups against the Bengals, Eagles and Texans. He had at least seven targets in each of those matchups and exceeded salary-based expectations even though he didn’t get into the end zone.
He has become a key part of the Jaguars’ passing game and has the trust and attention of Trevor Lawrence, as the Jaguars look to continue their solid start to the season.
Strange gets a favorable matchup against the Colts, who have allowed five touchdowns to tight ends over the last six games. The Titans’ tight ends didn’t have a single catch against them in Week 6, but T.J. Hockenson had 35 yards and a touchdown against them last week. Strange is involved enough to be a solid play even without a trip to the end zone, and if he does get a score, he has the potential to be one of the best plays on the board.
Pictured: Puka Nacua
Photo Credit: Imagn
