NFL DFS Trenches Report: Finding an Edge for Week 8

Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.

While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment on a sack, for example.

Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.

However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.

We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.

The Data

With six weeks of data under our belt, we now have matchup-adjusted figures. One effect of that is that it smoothes the data at the edges — the highs aren’t quite as high and the lows aren’t quite as low. The bigger impact, though, is that the data is considerably more reliable as a measure of per-play efficiency, making it more useful for DFS.

Strong Offensive Line Matchups

Los Angeles Rams OL (#1 in Adjusted Line Yards, #8 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Los Angeles Chargers DL

The Rams remain the best run-blocking offense in the NFL by a fairly wide margin, which explains how they’ve been able to support not just one, but two fantasy-relevant running backs despite a top-ten PROE on the season.

The bad news is that they have two fantasy-relevant running backs, with Blake Corum ($5,000) seeing an ever-increasing role alongside Kyren Williams ($7,500). Last week, they each saw 18 opportunities in a comfortable win over the Raiders. This week, they’re taking on the Chargers as about a touchdown favorite, so we could see a very similar game flow.

With Davante Adams on IR, the Rams are limited at wide receiver. That has the trickle-down effect of Williams playing a larger role in the passing game and the Rams limiting his carries in favor of Corum to some extent, at least when the scoreboard allows. For that reason, I’d be interested in Williams in lineups with a Chargers bring-back – essentially planning around a close game – and Corum paired with the Rams defense, as a big win/lead correlates well with Corum getting more work. At his $5,000 price tag, he doesn’t need a ton of touches to pay off.

Jacksonville Jaguars OL (#2 in Adjusted Line Yards, #4 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Indianapolis Colts DL

I wanted to highlight Jacksonville here not only because of their numbers in the chart. The data above is backwards-looking, considering only how teams have performed so far. The Colts’ defense has ranked 29th in adjusted line yards and 21st in adjusted sack rate through seven weeks – and the team just traded arguably their best defensive lineman, DeForest Buckner.

Buckner has accounted for four of their 13 sacks, adding an additional four tackles for loss from the interior defensive line. It’s hard to quantify exactly what that will mean to the Colts’ defensive stats, but we can safely say it’s not going to improve them. Given how bad they were already, that’s great news for the Jaguars’ offense.

With the Jaguars’ spread approaching double digits, the obvious beneficiary is Bhayshul Tuten ($5,900), who had a season-high 24.7 DraftKings points last week. That was largely due to two receiving touchdowns in a Jaguars loss, but he’s seen at least 15 carries in every win. With the likely improvement to his efficiency in this matchup, he’s a quietly strong play. Trevor Lawrence ($6,200) and the passing attack are in a good spot too, but that’s a bet on the Colts to keep pace, which seems unlikely.

Strong Defensive Line Matchups

Detroit Lions DL (#1 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Minnesota Vikings OL

The Lions ($2,700) are a pretty bad defense overall, but most of the problems are due to their defensive secondary. They actually have one of the league’s better defensive fronts, ranking top five in both adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate. That makes this week’s matchup with a terrible Vikings offense pretty interesting.

Minnesota’s offensive line ranks 30th in adjusted sack rate so far, which is probably more on Kyler Murray ($5,600) than the unit Anderson had ranked 13th coming into the season. Regardless, the results are the same: 18 sacks through three games, and an offense averaging just 20.8 points. With the Lions’ secondary getting some much-needed help in the form of Brian Branch returning last week, this is a quietly good spot.

It’s an interesting game to build around, with the Lions featuring an elite offense and bad defense, while the Vikings are an elite defense and bad offense, but Detroit’s D/ST might actually be the key.

Pittsburgh Steelers DL (#2 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Cleveland Browns OL

The Browns continue to provide solid fantasy scores for their opponents thanks to their “league-leading” 25 sacks taken and 32nd-ranked adjusted sack rate. On top of that, they rank 28th in points per game and have given away nine turnovers through seven contests, which ranks in the bottom half of the NFL on a per-game basis.

This week, they get the division-rival Steelers ($3,300), who have seemingly had one of the best defensive lines every season since the AFL/NFL merger. This year, they rank first in adjusted line yards, with a roughly league-average adjusted sack rate. Cleveland will likely be forced to pass both due to the game script and Pittsburgh shutting down the run game, which should help the defense create sacks and turnovers.

At worst, they have a solid floor with Cleveland implied for a slate-low 18 points. At best, the upside is very strong, which makes spending up to Pittsburgh a solid option if you can find the salary.

Picture: Matthew Stafford, Rams offensive line
Photo Credit: Imagn