The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Brock Purdy at Atlanta Falcons – $6,600 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel
With Josh Allen on a bye week, Jalen Hurts out for the season, and Lamar Jackson (ankle) working his way back from injury, it’s a big week for mid-range QBs to step up as top options. In the FantasyLabs Consensus Projections, Brock Purdy has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections among the 20 QBs projected to start on the main slate.
The 49ers and Falcons meet in the game with the second-highest over/under on the board, according to our Vegas Dashboard. Purdy will lead his undefeated 49ers on a cross-country trip to take on the Falcons on a short week and with a banged-up group of receivers.
However, Purdy has been outstanding all season, regardless of who is or isn’t available. He has over 17 DraftKings points in every game this year, averaging 22.7 DraftKings points with 243.3 passing yards per contest.
He threw just one touchdown on Monday night against Washington, but he had multiple touchdown passes in every other game this season and has a total of 14 touchdowns to go with only two interceptions. He is also a sneaky rushing producer, with 25+ rushing yards in five of his six games this season.
The Falcons have allowed 10 passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown to opposing QBs this season, and last week, Caleb Williams had a very strong return against them in Atlanta.
Even with Deebo Samuel Sr. (hamstring) out and Mike Evans (ribs, Achilles) playing through multiple issues, Purdy brings enough upside to be worth considering as a top-ceiling QB play in Week 7.
Top Value: Jordan Love at Detroit Lions – $6,000 on DraftKings, $7,600 on FanDuel
The one game that has a higher over/under than Falcons-49ers is the big divisional matchup between the Packers and the Lions in the Motor City. The Lions have been a great matchup for quarterbacks this season. In the FantasyLabs Consensus projections, Jordan Love has the highest Plus/Minus projection among quarterbacks on FanDuel and the second-highest on DraftKings.
Love has had to carry the load more this season for the Packers, who have been without Josh Jacobs in the backfield. Jacobs is cleared to return but may need more time to ramp up, leaving his status for this week uncertain. Whether he plays or not, though, Love will still be the focal point of the Pack’s attack.
He has exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his six games this season, including each of his last two contests. He put up a season-high 28.28 DraftKings points against the Bears two weeks ago in a division game, and he followed with a very solid 21.24 FPTS last week in a home win over the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football.
Love has shown a strong connection with top pass-catchers Matthew Golden, Christian Watson, and Tucker Kraft, while Savion Williams also stepped into a bigger role last week. Many of those players, including Love himself, have been limited in practice this week, but as long as the options are healthy, Love brings great value potential against Detroit in a high-scoring environment.
The Lions have been the most generous defense in the NFL to opposing QBs this season, allowing 14 passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns to the position in five games, along with an average of 320 passing yards per contest.
Look for Love to light it up again in this matchup. He has the potential to be the top QB on the slate even at his relatively affordable salary.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Jahmyr Gibbs vs. Green Bay Packers – $9,800 on DraftKings, $9,800 on FanDuel
Coming off his bye week, Gibbs is back with the top median, ceiling, and floor projections at running back on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the FantasyLabs Consensus projections. At the position, he also has the highest Plus/Minus projection on FanDuel and a top-five Plus/Minus projection on DraftKings, even though he has the highest salary of all RBs.
Gibbs has been a fantasy beast in his first season without David Montgomery working alongside him in the backfield. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his five games, racking up a total of nine touchdowns with an average of over 100 rushing yards and over 45 receiving yards per game. He has averaged 32.1 DraftKings points per game this year and has been even better in his two home games at Ford Field, posting 37.6 DraftKings points against the Saints and 41.4 DraftKings points against the Jets.
In his last game before the bye week, Gibbs had an impressive 40.7 DraftKings points, running for 151 yards and two touchdowns against the Cardinals while adding five catches for 56 yards.
Rested and ready, he should be poised to run wild against the Packers, who have allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points to opposing RBs this season. Opposing RBs have 10 touchdowns in six games against Green Bay, averaging 90.8 rushing yards and 34.0 receiving yards per game.
If you have the salary available, Gibbs is a great pay-up play with a high ceiling in this matchup and the ability to outproduce even his elevated salary-based expectations.
Top Value: Woody Marks vs. New York Giants – $5,600 on DraftKings, $6,200 on FanDuel
In a spot where he’ll need to step up for the suddenly surging Houston Texans, Woody Marks has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection on DraftKings and the fourth-highest on FanDuel in the FantasyLabs Consensus Projections.
Marks will most likely be the focus of the Texans’ running game again this week since David Montgomery (groin) hasn’t been able to return to practice and will likely miss a second straight game. Last week, Marks lost some work to Jawhar Jordan (quad) from the practice squad, but Jordan is out for at least four weeks on the practice squad injured list. British Brooks (hamstring) was also placed on IR after Week 3, leaving veteran Dare Ogunbowale as the only other option besides Marks in the backfield.
Marks has exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight weeks, dating back to before the Montgomery injury. He scored short-yardage touchdowns against the Colts and Cowboys and then stepped into a much larger role against the Titans and Jaguars after Montgomery departed Week 5’s matchup early.
Against the Titans, Marks had 12.5 DraftKings points and racked up 62 yards on 15 carries with four catches for 23 yards. In a much tougher matchup against the Jaguars, he had 56 yards on 15 carries with two catches for 25 more yards.
This week, he’ll remain in a workhorse role at home against the Giants, who have allowed six running back touchdowns (three rushing and three receiving) in their six games this season. If the Texans can play from ahead in this contest, they could give Marks an even bigger workload, which gives him a very high ceiling as a value play with a clear path to playing time.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Puka Nacua at Las Vegas Raiders – $8,400 on DraftKings, $9,100 on FanDuel
Nacua has the highest Plus/Minus projection at wide receiver on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the FantasyLabs Consensus Projections. Since he also has the highest salary, he brings the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at the position as well.
Nacua’s Rams took a very tough divisional loss last week to the Cardinals, slipping to 2-4 on the season. Additionally, they lost receiver Davante Adams (hamstring) to a significant injury, and he is expected to miss 6 to 10 weeks. Nacua had a quiet game with six catches for 80 yards, and the Rams will need him to step up if they want to get a bounce-back win in Vegas this week.
Without Adams, Nacua could be flooded with even more targets, but he was forced to leave Thursday’s practice with a calf injury. It isn’t expected to be a major issue, but keep a close eye on his status for this week.
In Week 5, Nacua had a massive 24 targets against the Bills, catching 17 passes for 138 yards and 40.7 DraftKings points, reminding everyone of his dominant fantasy ceiling.
With more work potentially coming his way and a team desperately needing a win, Nacua could post a huge game against the Raiders if he’s healthy. The Raiders have allowed multiple wide receiver touchdowns in three straight weeks to the Chiefs, Patriots, and Bills.
Even though he’s expensive, Nacua brings both a high ceiling and a high floor, which make him a pay-up play to build around in one of the late games on Sunday.
Top Value: Savion Williams at Detroit Lions – $3,200 on DraftKings, $4,000 on FanDuel
The Packers are in that great spot against the Lions, and Williams is a bargain option to stack with Love. He brings huge upside at a salary just barely more than the minimum. He has the third-highest Plus/Minus projection of all WRs on DraftKings and the fourth-highest on FanDuel.
Williams was the Packers’ third-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft out of TCU. He played 12 games and had 10 catches for 78 yards and a touchdown. He missed the first five games of this season on injured reserve with an ankle injury, but he looked solid in his season debut last week, playing 53% of snaps on offense, the third-most of all wide receivers.
Williams caught all four of his targets against the Cowboys for 32 yards. His role was bigger than expected, and since the game was on Sunday Night Football, his salary was already set for this week’s main slate. His role, even as the team’s third receiver, would be hefty enough to make him a good play against the Lions, but he could get even more work if Christian Watson (ankle) or Matthew Golden (shoulder) is out or limited after missing back-to-back practices to start the week.
After missing Wednesday’s practice as well, Williams got in a limited session on Thursday, and if he doesn’t have an injury designation, he could be poised for even more work this week.
The Lions have allowed the second-most DraftKings points to wide receivers this season, allowing five WR touchdowns and 194.8 receiving yards per game to the position. Watson and Golden are also strong stacking options to consider with Love in Week 7, but Williams is so much cheaper that he could be an ultimate value play this week.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Trey McBride vs. Denver Broncos – $7,400 on DraftKings, $7,200 on FanDuel
McBride has the top median, ceiling, and floor projections at tight end in the FantasyLabs Consensus projections. McBride has remained an elite weekly option at the position, and he comes into this week’s matchup healthier than Brock Bowers (hamstring/calf), who was limited in practice earlier this week.
McBride has exceeded salary-based expectations in all but one of his games this season. He has 10+ DraftKings points every week and has produced over 16 DraftKings points in four of his six games. Last week, he had seven catches on nine targets for 53 yards against the Rams, but the week before that, he was even better with 21.6 DraftKings points against the Lions. He scored his third touchdown in that game and matched his season high with nine receptions.
The Cardinals’ tight end is also in a much better matchup than Bowers, since the Broncos have allowed the 16th-most fantasy points to the position, while the Rams have allowed the second-fewest. The Rams held McBride in check a little bit last week, but the Broncos will have a hard time doing the same based on their results so far this season.
McBride is always a strong play, and he is typically a target magnet, especially at home, where he will be this week. With Marvin Harrison Jr. traded away, McBride should continue to get all the targets he can handle.
Top Value: George Kittle at Atlanta Falcons – $5,700 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel
Kittle should be in a smash spot this week for the 49ers, and he continues to deliver impressive performances less than a year after he ruptured his Achilles. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at tight end in the FantasyLabs Consensus projections by a wide margin on both sites and could be set for another heavy workload.
Kittle has 17+ DraftKings points in four of his last five games and has at least four catches in each of those five contests. On Monday Night Football against the Commanders, he caught five passes on a season-high eight targets and finished with 69 yards, a touchdown, and 17.9 DraftKings points.
With Deebo Samuel Sr. (hamstring) and De’Zhaun Stribling out and Mike Evans (ribs/Achilles) playing through multiple injuries, Kittle has emerged as the go-to option for Brock Purdy. The two make an excellent stack this week against the Falcons.
Atlanta has been a slightly favorable matchup for tight ends this year. Opposing tight ends have scored four touchdowns against the Falcons in six games while averaging 6.3 catches and 56.2 yards per game. Last week, Colston Loveland of the Bears found the end zone against the Falcons, and Kittle will hope to take advantage of the matchup to continue his impressive comeback season this week. His volume gives him both a high ceiling and a high floor.
Pictured: Jahmyr Gibbs
Photo credit: Imagn
