Week 7 features another 10-game NFL slate on Sunday afternoon, matching the size of last week’s slate. With several of the top offenses on bye weeks or in prime time, it’s a very interesting 20-team player pool to sort through. Just like last week, seven games kick off at 1:00 p.m. ET, with three games in the late window. Let’s take a look at Sunday’s slate and see which players the early projections are pointing to as values to target this week.
From a game-script perspective, the Detroit Lions have the highest implied team total on the board as they return from their bye week and host the Packers. That game also has the highest over/under, followed by the Ravens-Bengals and 49ers-Falcons matchups, which also have point totals over 50. Players from those teams are worth considering in these potentially high-scoring spots. While kickoff is still a few days away, it’s never too early to start strategizing for your NFL DFS lineups for Week 7. Even in the middle of the week, some potential values are already popping in our early projections, and you definitely want to have them on your radar.
Throughout the season, every Wednesday, I’ll be taking a look at the players who are standing out as top values for the coming week by using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently.
Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — one of the most accurate fantasy rankers in the industry.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Values
Jordan Love ($6,000) Green Bay Packers (+3) at Detroit Lions (53.5 total)
In the FantasyLabs Consensus projections, Jordan Love has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at quarterback by a wide margin. He and the Packers head to Detroit for that potentially high-scoring contest against a Lions secondary that has been an amazing matchup for quarterbacks all season.
Love has been putting up strong numbers most of the season, while the running game has floundered without Josh Jacobs, who could return as soon as this week. Love has carried much of the workload and exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his six games this season, including each of his last two contests.
After a down game against the Falcons and a solid bounce-back road win against the Bucs, Love has been very productive over the last two weeks. He scored a season-high 28.28 DraftKings points against the Bears, followed by 21.24 FPTS last week in a home win over the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football.
The Lions have been the most generous defense in the NFL to opposing QBs, allowing 14 passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns to the position in five games, along with an average of 320 passing yards per contest.
Whether Jacobs returns to bring more balance to the offense or misses another week, Love should continue to carry enough of the load to deliver a big game against the Lions’ struggling secondary. He has shown strong connections with both Christian Watson and Matthew Golden, and in this Week 7 spot, a “Pack Stack” is definitely an option to consider building around.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
Puka Nacua ($8,400) Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) at Las Vegas Raiders (48.5 total)
The wide receiver with the highest Projected Plus/Minus in the FantasyLabs Consensus projections this week is Rams superstar Puka Nacua. That’s a great reminder that “value” is production relative to salary and doesn’t always mean the overall salary has to be cheap. Nacua will have to do a lot to be a good value, but his projections are extremely high since he’s lined up for so much volume in the Rams’ offense.
Nacua’s Rams were expected to be one of the top Super Bowl contenders this year but are just 2-4 in their first six games coming into their Week 7 matchup with the 3-3 Raiders, who have been one of the biggest positive surprises of the season. To make things even worse for the Rams, Davante Adams (hamstring) suffered a significant injury in their loss to the Cardinals and will miss 6-10 weeks.
Without Adams, Nacua could be flooded with even more targets. He had a massive 24 targets against the Bills, catching 17 passes for 138 yards and 40.7 DraftKings points in Week 5, but he only drew seven targets in Week 6 against the Cardinals, catching six passes for 80 yards.
He missed two games earlier this season with an injury of his own but posted 30.7 and 40.7 DraftKings points after returning, showing that he still brings an extremely high ceiling.
With more work coming his way and a team desperate to get a win, look for Nacua to post a huge game against the Raiders, who have allowed multiple wide receiver touchdowns in three straight weeks to the Chiefs, Patriots, and Bills.
Even though he’s expensive, Nacua brings both a high ceiling and a high floor, which make him a pay-up play to build around in one of the late games on Sunday.
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NFL DFS Running Back Values
Braelon Allen ($5,900) New York Jets (-4.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (39.5 Total)
The biggest RB names on the board go head-to-head this week as Bijan Robinson and Christian McCaffrey square off in Atlanta, and both of them have excellent Plus/Minus projections. In this spot, though, let’s look at Braelon Allen, who has stepped up while filling in for Breece Hall (quadriceps). Hall’s status for this matchup is uncertain after missing three straight games.
Hall hasn’t been ruled out yet, but even if he returns, he could need some time to ramp up. That could leave Allen enough work to be a great value in a smash spot against the Dolphins, who have allowed the second-most DraftKings points per game to running backs this season. Opposing RBs have eight total touchdowns in five games against Miami while producing 101.2 rushing yards and 39.4 receiving yards per contest.
Allen has averaged 18.3 carries per game in his three contests without Hall. He took a season-high 24 carries for 116 rushing yards and a touchdown against the Browns in Week 5 for a season-high 21.6 DraftKings points. Last week against New England, he didn’t get into the end zone but still had 78 rushing yards on 17 carries and tacked on two catches for 26 yards.
He isn’t quite as involved as a receiver as some of the top options on the board, but he gets enough done on the ground to bring a very high ceiling if he gets another start against the Dolphins’ struggling defense. The Jets are expected to play from ahead in this contest, and if that happens, they could lean heavily on Allen, as they did against the Browns.
Hall’s practice participation and status for this week will be key to monitor since Allen will be a very strong pivot play who can anchor your lineups if he is once again set up to carry the load.
NFL DFS Tight End Values
George Kittle ($5,700) San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Atlanta Falcons (50.5 Total)
Even though studs Trey McBride and Brock Bowers are on the main slate this week, 49ers TE George Kittle has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at tight end in the FantasyLabs Consensus projections. Kittle has helped the 49ers to a 6-0 start to the season and shown no ill effects from the Achilles injury he suffered just last January.
Kittle has 17+ DraftKings points in four of his last five games and has at least four catches in each of those five contests. He drew a season-high eight targets on Monday Night Football last week against the Commanders and caught five passes for 69 yards, a touchdown, and 17.9 DraftKings points.
With Deebo Samuel Sr. (hamstring) and De’Zhaun Stribling out and Mike Evans (ribs/Achilles) playing through multiple injuries, Kittle has been even more involved in the 49ers’ passing game, and he’ll have to help carry the load again this week against the Falcons.
Atlanta has been a slightly above-average matchup for tight ends this year. Opposing tight ends have scored four touchdowns against the Falcons in six games while averaging 6.3 catches and 56.2 yards per game. Last week, Colston Loveland found the end zone against the Falcons, and Kittle will hope to continue his success this week, with plenty of volume likely coming his way.
Pictured: George Kittle
Photo Credit: Imagn
