The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Josh Allen at Las Vegas Raiders – $7,500 on DraftKings, $9,500 on FanDuel
Week 6’s Sunday main slate features 10 games in the afternoon on both DraftKings and FanDuel. While there are several matchups that promise plenty of points, the contest between the Bills and Raiders has the highest over/under, according to our Vegas Dashboard. In that matchup, Josh Allen stands out as the top ceiling play at QB since he brings the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections in the FantasyLabs Consensus projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Not only does he have the highest raw projections, but on DraftKings he also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at quarterback by a wide margin, even though he’s also the most expensive option on the slate. Plus/Minus compares projections to salary-based expectations, so even pay-up options like Allen can be good values if their projected production exceeds what their elevated salaries imply. Allen is in a great matchup against the Raiders and comes in with plenty of momentum.
In his five games this season, Allen has exceeded salary-based expectations three times, including on Monday Night Football last week in a win over the Rams. He rushed for an impressive 121 yards and a touchdown while completing 12 of his 19 pass attempts for 210 yards and another touchdown.
He posted 34.5 DraftKings points in that win and has over 33 DraftKings points in three of his five games this season. While his passing numbers have been solid, his rushing has set him apart with eight touchdowns in five games and at least one rushing touchdown in each game.
In Week 6, Allen gets a very favorable matchup in Vegas because the Raiders have struggled against quarterbacks over the last few weeks. Last week, Drake Maye lit them up for 42.5 DraftKings points and five touchdowns, and now the Raiders have allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points per game to QBs this season.
In this smash spot, Allen should be set up for another big game with a substantial workload and a very high ceiling.
Top Value: Daniel Jones vs. Tennessee Titans – $5,200 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel
If you are looking to go cheap at QB to afford the other stars you want on your roster, Daniel Jones is a top option to consider, since he’s in a good spot against the Titans. He has the highest Plus/Minus projection among quarterbacks on FanDuel in the FantasyLabs Consensus projections and the third-highest on DraftKings behind Allen and Matthew Stafford. Jones is a bargain and brings solid upside with his very affordable salary.
While he has shown some rushing potential previously in his career, he has not been running as much this season. He has thrown for over 1,000 passing yards in his five games this year with three passing touchdowns, a rushing touchdown, and four interceptions. He hasn’t put up over 13 DraftKings points in any game yet this season, and he has yet to find the form he displayed before the Achilles injury that ended his 2025 campaign.
Jones is in a soft landing spot this week, though, after the winless Titans gave up a big week to C.J. Stroud last week as the Texans got their first win of the season. Tennessee has allowed five passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown to opposing QBs this season, along with an average of 228 passing yards against them per game.
The Colts have built a solid offense around Jones with good playmakers available, even with top receiver Alec Pierce (heel) on IR. While he hasn’t impressed yet this year, our FantasyLabs Consensus projections expect him to bounce back this week and put up a good number as a bargain value option this week.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Bijan Robinson vs. Chicago Bears – $8,700 on DraftKings, $9,300 on FanDuel
Of all the top running backs available in this 20-team player pool, Bijan Robinson has the top median, ceiling, and floor projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the FantasyLabs Consensus projections. He also has a top-four Plus/Minus projection on both, even though he has the highest salary at the position.
Robinson has three games this season with over 30 DraftKings points and has posted over 100 scrimmage yards four times in his five contests. He was held out of the end zone in last week’s loss to the Ravens, but he still had 15.8 DraftKings points since he had 86 rushing yards and 32 receiving yards on four catches.
Before last week’s game with no touchdowns, he had posted back-to-back multi-touchdown performances that resulted in 38.3 and 30.7 DraftKings points, respectively. Robinson has been very involved as a receiver out of the backfield and should continue to get plenty of volume this week.
Michael Penix Jr. left last week’s game with a rib injury, but he has practiced without limitations, so he should be ready to go this week against the Bears, giving the entire Falcons’ offense a much higher ceiling.
The Bears have allowed the eighth-fewest DraftKings points to running backs this season, but this should be a high-scoring game environment in Atlanta, and Bijan should feature for the Falcons. Last week, MarShawn Lloyd had two touchdowns against the Bears, but only one running back (Aaron Jones Sr.) has hit 100 rushing yards against them this season.
Robinson is the focus of the offense, which gives him an extremely high ceiling in this home game. He makes sense as a pay-up play in the backfield and has shown a very high ceiling all season.
Top Value: Rhamondre Stevenson vs. New York Jets – $6,300 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel
Two running backs stand out as top values this week in the FantasyLabs Consensus projections. Rhamondre Stevenson has the highest Plus/Minus projection on FantasyLabs and the second-highest on DraftKings. The other strong play, especially on DraftKings, where he seems radically underpriced, is Kyren Williams. I broke down Williams as a value play earlier this week, so let’s run down Rhamondre’s outlook.
Stevenson could carry more of the load this week since TreVeyon Henderson is dealing with an ankle sprain that has limited him in practice. Stevenson has played most of the snaps in the Patriots’ backfield this season, playing a total of 216 snaps through five weeks (63.5%) compared to Henderson’s 96 snaps (28.2%).
Stevenson has over 14 DraftKings points in three of his five games this season, including each of his last two contests, as the Patriots offense has found its groove with wins over the Bills and Raiders. He had exactly 13 carries and a rushing touchdown in each of those two contests while adding three catches in each game as well.
In Week 6, he and the Patriots host the Jets, and if he gets more work because Henderson is less than 100%, Stevenson brings an even higher value potential. The Jets have allowed six touchdowns to running backs in five games this season, and the Bears duo of Kyle Monangai and D’Andre Swift ran for over 200 yards against them in Week 4. The Jets were better last week against the Browns, but they still make a good matchup for Stevenson, especially if he’s taking on a bigger share of the workload.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with our Sleeper promo code.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Puka Nacua vs. Arizona Cardinals – $8,100 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
The Rams have the highest implied team total on Sunday’s main slate and are heavy home favorites against the Cardinals. In that matchup, Puka Nacua has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections among wide receivers in the FantasyLabs Consensus rankings on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on both sites, showing that pay-up options can still be value plays in the right spots (much like discussed above regarding Allen).
Nacua missed two games earlier this season with an injury that was listed as “hip,” which coach Sean McVay termed “soreness in his groin.” Whatever the issue was, Nacua has looked strong in his two games since returning. He had nine catches on 12 targets for 125 yards and added a rushing touchdown in Week 4 to total 30.7 DraftKings points in his return. He was even better in Week 5, posting 40.7 DraftKings points by catching 17 of his 24 targets for 138 yards and a touchdown.
With his astounding volume of targets, he has both a high floor and a high ceiling since he gets so many chances to make big plays, but even if he doesn’t break free for a big gain, he still gets so many PPR points.
The Cardinals are a great matchup for Nacua this week, since opposing receivers have scored 10 touchdowns against them this season, including four straight weeks with multiple trips to the end zone. Opposing receivers are averaging a total of 156.6 receiving yards per week against Arizona, which makes the Cards a top-10 matchup for wide receivers.
Nacua had seven catches for 167 yards and two touchdowns against Arizona last year in Glendale and 10 catches for 76 yards and a touchdown in the rematch in Los Angeles. His history of success in the matchup and his heavy volume make him the pay-up play to attack this week as the Rams look to bounce back from last week’s overtime loss to the Bills.
Top Value: Germie Bernard at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $4,000 on DraftKings, $5,100 on FanDuel
The Steelers are on the road against the Bucs this week, and with multiple injuries in their receiving corps, rookie Germie Bernard is set up as a top value option. Bernard has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings in the FantasyLabs Consensus projections, and the second-highest on FanDuel of the options under $6,000.
Bernard will be the Steelers’ second receiver this week, behind only DK Metcalf. Michael Pittman Jr. (foot) is on IR, while Ben Skowronek (calf) and Roman Wilson (finger) have already been ruled out this week as well.
Bernard has shown a solid connection with Aaron Rodgers in the two games in which he has stepped into a larger role this season. In Week 2, with Pittman out, he caught four of his eight targets for 35 yards against the Patriots. Last week, with Pittman out and Wilson leaving early, Bernard hauled in six of his nine targets for 80 yards and 14.4 DraftKings points. He led the team in targets and established new career highs in catches and receiving yards.
The Steelers took Bernard in the second round of the draft out of Alabama, and his solid overall game and big frame have made him a solid PPR option when he steps into a larger role. Rodgers seems to like looking in his direction, and if he gets volume again this week, he could be an outstanding value.
The Bucs have allowed a wide receiver touchdown in four straight weeks and gave up 18 catches and 271 yards last week to the Cowboys wide receivers. Since Rodgers usually has plenty of pass attempts and will likely look Bernard’s way often on Sunday, look for the rookie to deliver great value potential this week.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Brock Bowers vs. Buffalo Bills – $7,500 on DraftKings, $8,300 on FanDuel
Since the Raiders are expected to be in a high-scoring contest against the Bills, Brock Bowers edges out Trey McBride for the top spot in our FantasyLabs Consensus projections this week. Bowers has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at the position, and he has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his three games this season.
He missed two weeks after a knee procedure but returned with a big game in Week 3, catching 10 of his 13 targets for 116 yards and a touchdown. He followed that up with six catches on 11 targets for 86 yards, another touchdown, and 20.6 DraftKings points against the Chiefs in Week 4. Last week in a loss to the Patriots, Bowers continued his strong run of production, racking up eight catches on 10 targets for 110 yards, another touchdown, and 27 DraftKings points.
With double-digit targets in each of his three games and at least 20 DraftKings points in each contest, Bowers is worth considering even as a pay-up option if you have the salary available.
He is virtually matchup-proof, but the Bills did just give up 110 receiving yards to the Rams’ tight ends last week, so he should find space to operate as he continues to show off his strong connection with Kirk Cousins.
Top Value: Isaiah Likely vs. New Orleans Saints – $4,800 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel
Last week in this spot, we highlighted Isaiah Likely as the top value tight end. He delivered a monster game, and he stands out once again this week, so let’s run it back on the Giants’ starting tight end. Likely has the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate on DraftKings in the FantasyLabs consensus projections and the third-highest on FanDuel, behind only McBride and Bowers.
Likely caught 11 of his 13 targets last week against the Commanders for 94 yards, two touchdowns, and 26.9 DraftKings points. He has at least 10 targets in three of the last four weeks, and he should continue to get plenty of volume as long as Jameis Winston is slinging it around for the Giants.
The Saints have been a top-10 matchup for tight ends in DraftKings points allowed this season. If you opt not to pay up for an elite tight end, Likely’s heavy workload and favorable matchup make him a great value to consider, and he can also work as an excellent FLEX consideration if you go with a two-tight-end lineup.
Pictured: Brock Bowers
Photo Credit: Imagn
