Sunday’s main slate for Week 5 features 11 games. Below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 5.
Specifically, I will be focusing on ownership projections and leverage scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify undervalued targets. Leverage scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
Note: These leverage scores can also change as projected ownership and projections change throughout the weekend.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Bo Nix ($5,600) + Jaylen Waddle ($6,100) + Courtland Sutton ($4,600)
The Broncos offense has been a mess this season, but this is a great time to buy low on this group. Given their struggles, HC Sean Payton has decided to call plays this Sunday vs. the Chargers, taking over those duties from OC Davis Webb.
Denver ranks 20th in offensive EPA per play under Webb but ranked 10th with Payton calling plays last season. Nix has struggled this season and currently sits as the No. 20 quarterback in fantasy scoring, but he finished as the No. 7 quarterback last season with Payton as the play caller. Nix scored 20+ DraftKings points in 8-of-17 games, and he eclipsed 30 DraftKings points twice.
Nix threw for 3,931 yards and 25 touchdowns while adding 365 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. He averaged 4.9 carries per game, compared to 3.5 this season. Facing a Chargers defense that is giving up the seventh-most yards per pass this season (7.4), Nix should come back to life this weekend, and both Waddle and Sutton should join him on the ride.
While both have struggled this season, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about Waddle and Sutton with Payton taking over. With the great offensive mind running the show last season, Sutton finished as the No. 15 receiver in fantasy scoring, including eight efforts of 15+ DraftKings points. The wideout topped 1,000 yards for the second year in a row and scored seven touchdowns.
Sutton led the Broncos with a 19.4% target share last season, but that number is down to 14.8% with Waddle in town. However, Sutton’s salary has dropped to $4,600 – the cheapest he has been on DraftKings since 2021 – and outproducing that low salary shouldn’t be difficult this week. Sutton leads Denver with a 77.6% route rate and seven red-zone targets, but he has yet to find the end zone. The veteran is way overdue for a touchdown, and that could very well come this weekend.
As for Waddle, he is leading the Broncos with a 19.4% target share, including six red-zone targets and four targets over 20 yards. Despite this offense’s struggles, Waddle is averaging 1.7 YPRR and has outings of 24.8 and 14.5 DraftKings points in his first four games. Now, with Payton likely to awaken the offense, Waddle should finally play up to his potential. His upside is huge against this soft Chargers defense.
Not only are Nix, Waddle, and Sutton too cheap, but all three are projected for single-digit ownership, according to our projections, making this an excellent stack for tournaments.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Quinshon Judkins ($5,700)
Judkins is coming off an impressive outing. The back rushed for 53 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries and caught 6-of-7 targets for 43 yards vs. the Steelers, resulting in a season-high 21.6 DraftKings points. Judkins next faces the Jets, and he should be able to carry that momentum into this matchup.
New York is allowing the fourth-most rushing yards to backs (455), and opponents have the seventh-highest rushing success rate against the Jets. While New York is favored by 1.5 points, the Jets are 1-3, whereas the Browns are 3-1 and have won three straight. Cleveland has simply been the better team, and the Browns should find themselves in a positive game script, which benefits Judkins.
The back’s role has been great this season. Judkins is averaging 14.8 carries per game while logging 61.7% of the snaps. The former second-round pick has seen nine red-zone carries but scored just one touchdown, so more scores are coming. That could happen as soon as this Sunday, as the Jets have already given up six touchdowns to running backs.
Judkins’ usage in the passing game has also been promising. The back is running a route on only 36% of his team’s dropbacks but seeing a target on an elite 32% of his routes. Three of those targets have come in the red zone.
Judkins is clearly underpriced for his role, and our projections put him at only around 5% ownership on DraftKings.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with our Sleeper promo code.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Jameson Williams ($5,900)
Williams finally showed some life this past Sunday vs. the Panthers, hauling in 6-of-8 targets for 102 yards. The receiver posted a season-best 19.2 DraftKings points. While I don’t like chasing that performance, Williams is projected for only around 6% ownership on DraftKings, according to our projections, and he is in a perfect spot to keep it rolling.
The Lions are hosting the Cardinals, and this game’s 54.5-point total is the highest on the slate by a whopping eight points. Both teams rank in the top 12 in pace, and no defense in the league is allowing more yards per pass than Arizona this season (8.6). Furthermore, the Cardinals are allowing passing plays of 20+ yards at the highest rate in the NFL.
Williams is one of the top big-play receivers in the league. While his fantasy numbers were underwhelming before last week, his usage suggests more strong performances are on the horizon. Williams is running a route on 91% of his team’s dropbacks and commanding a 14.3% target share. He has seen six red-zone targets and a team-high five targets over 20 yards, and his 14.6 aDOT ranks in the top 25 in the league.
Williams has provided 17+ DraftKings points in four of the last seven games he has played with a total of 50+ points. He is an outstanding, low-owned way to get exposure to this likely shootout between the Lions and Cardinals.
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Mike Gesicki ($4,100)
Gesicki has been a viable fantasy tight end this season, scoring 12+ DraftKings points in 3-of-4 games. The veteran is seeing a target on 16% of his routes – including three red-zone targets – while running a route on 53.8% of his team’s dropbacks.
While Gesicki’s usage has been compelling, it should be even better this Sunday vs. the Dolphins. Ja’Marr Chase (concussion) is likely to play after participating in a limited practice Thursday, but Tee Higgins (groin/neck) hasn’t practiced this week. It would be surprising if Higgins plays. If he is out, Gesicki should effortlessly outproduce his cheap salary.
Gesicki has played seven games with Higgins inactive over the last three seasons and averaged 10.6 DraftKings PPG in those contests. His target share rises from 9.7% with Higgins active to 14.3% with Higgins inactive, while his YPRR increases from 1.4 to 1.9.
His matchup vs. the Dolphins is gorgeous, too. Miami is giving up the fourth-most yards per pass this season (8.0). Against tight ends, the Dolphins are yielding the third-most yards (333) and fourth-most catches (29).
The Bengals’ implied team total is the third-highest on the slate (24.5 points), and Gesicki should draw single-digit ownership, with Isaiah Likely and Sam LaPorta likely to soak up most of the ownership among cheap tight ends.
Pictured: Bo Nix
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
