The quarterback position is one of the most flexible in NFL DFS. You can go in a variety of different ways. Do you pay up for one of the top studs or try to save some money with a value option? Do you eat the chalk or look for a low-owned option with upside? There’s no 100% one-size-fits-all answer, so each slate and contest type is going to require thought and consideration.
In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Cash Game Picks
Jacoby Brissett ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel)
The game between the Cardinals and Lions stands in a tier of its own on Sunday’s main slate. The total currently sits at 54.5 points, and no other game is above 46.5. Detroit has been a goldmine for fantasy purposes to start the year, possessing an elite offense and a horrid defense, and each of their first four games has reached at least 55 total points. Arizona has fit a similar mold, with their past two contests reaching at least 60 points scored. Add those two together, and there should be some offensive fireworks.
Brissett is normally a middling fantasy quarterback. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in just one of his first four outings, and it was a game where he attempted 52 passes. That type of volume isn’t going to come around very often. He’s averaged just 15.8 fantasy points per game overall, good for the 18th-best mark at quarterback.
However, the matchup vs. the Lions pushes him way up the rankings. That’s how favorable Detroit has been as an opponent this season. They’ve allowed 28.4 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, which is the most in the league by a wide margin. The Commanders are second in that department, and they’ve allowed just 22.0 fantasy points per game. It results in a ridiculous +12.4 Opponent Plus/Minus for Brissett.
Add in a cheap price tag, and Brissett owns the top projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Jared Goff ($6,600 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel)
On the other side of that matchup, Goff stands out as the more luxury QB target. He’s the better fantasy producer, averaging 21.5 fantasy points per game so far this season, and he’s the second-most-expensive passer on this slate. Most of the top fantasy QB options are unavailable on Sunday (Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes), so Goff gets a clear upgrade by default.
The matchup is also just as good for Goff as it is for Brissett. The Lions are implied for 30.0 points in this spot, which ranks first on the slate by more than five full points. Arizona has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the position, while they’re No. 30 in EPA per pass defensively.
Goff ultimately has the top raw projections at the position, leading all QBs in median and ceiling. He trails only Brissett in terms of projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel, where his salary comes with an 82% Bargain Rating. Goff is expected to be the highest-owned QB across the industry, but he feels like the safest bet at the position in Week 5.
Top NFL DFS Tournament Picks
Sam Darnold ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)
Brissett and Goff are expected to dominate the ownership at quarterback this week. The two are projected for more than 30% ownership on DraftKings, and it’s closer to 40% on FanDuel. Both guys are showing up as overvalued in Sim Labs, so pivoting elsewhere could pay big dividends.
Darnold is one potential alternative. The Seahawks will square off with the 49ers this week in another game with plenty of offensive upside. The Seahawks have the second-highest implied team total on the slate (24.75), and Seattle might have to score even more than that to keep up with San Francisco. Their offense is first in the league in EPA per play and second in points per game, so they can do plenty of damage.
However, the 49ers still have some issues defensively. Specifically, they’re 21st in EPA per pass against. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has looked absolutely unstoppable this season, so they’re going to struggle to contain the Seahawks’ No. 1 option.
Darnold ultimately has the fifth-highest ceiling projection on this slate, and he has the fifth-highest DraftKings optimal lineup rate. He’s projected for less than 6% ownership, so he’s an interesting pivot off the chalkier Goff and Brissett.
Drake Maye ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)
Maye had a brutal start to the year, but he might have turned things around last week vs. the Bills. He put together his best performance of the year, racking up 269 yards and three touchdowns through the air with an additional 54 yards on the ground. He finished with 28.16 DraftKings points, making him the highest-scoring QB of the week.
It was a reminder of what Maye is capable of. He finished second in the NFL MVP voting as a sophomore, and only Allen scored more fantasy points at quarterback last season.
Maye will have to deal with a tough Raiders’ defense in Week 5, but there’s no reason he can’t keep the production rolling. The Raiders also upset the Patriots in New England last season, so they could be looking for a little revenge. He has as much upside as anyone at the position, especially on a slate without Allen.
Kyler Murray ($5,200 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)
The Vikings are currently sitting at 4-0, despite not doing much offensively to start the year. They’re 27th in EPA per play, and they’re 31st in yards per game. They’ve thrived thanks to their elite defense, which has caused massive issues for their first four opponents.
We’ve yet to really see what Murray is capable of in this offense. He exited Week 1 early with a concussion, and he was forced to sit out in Week 2. Justin Jefferson got hurt in Murray’s return to the lineup in Week 3, and he was out of the lineup entirely last week. Jefferson has told reporters that he “plans” to return to the lineup in Week 5, but the final decision won’t be made until later in the week.
As long as Jefferson is back in the fold, Murray could be poised for his best game of the season. He’s taking on the Saints, who have been a solid matchup for quarterbacks so far this season.
Murray ultimately ranks fourth at the position in projected Plus/Minus, and he has more upside than his current salary suggests. He’s yet to really put his rushing upside on display, but that remains a part of his skill set. Murray is down to just $5,300 on DraftKings, and he averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.53 with a comparable salary before the start of this season (per the Trends tool). It makes him an interesting buy-low option.
Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Picks With Upside
Bo Nix ($5,600 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
The Chargers’ nightmare start to the season continues, with the Broncos coming to town in Week 5. Things won’t get any easier in the coming weeks, so the team could be headed for a disaster season.
Nix has picked up basically where he left off last year. He’s a boom-or-bust type of quarterback, but when he hits his ceiling, it’s pretty darn high. He rushed for 40 yards and two touchdowns vs. the Rams in Week 3, finishing as the fifth-highest scorer at the position.
The Chargers’ defense hasn’t really been their issue this season – they’re 11th in EPA per play – but Nix is getting plenty of love in Sim Labs. He’s projected for just 3.33% ownership compared to an 8% optimal lineup rate, creating the largest discrepancy at the position.
Jayden Daniels ($6,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)
Daniels is tentatively expected to return to the lineup this week, which is great news for the Commanders. Backup QB Marcus Mariota went down with an injury last week in London, so the team needs Daniels even more than usual. Whether or not he can stay healthy remains to be seen, but he should at least start the game vs. the Giants.
Daniels has not been the same fantasy force that he was as a rookie, but the glimpses have been there. He racked up 14.74 DraftKings points in the first half vs. the Cowboys in Week 2, rushing for 69 yards while throwing for 96 more. Daniels was unable to finish that contest, but he was headed toward a monster fantasy showing.
Perhaps he can finish the job vs. the Giants. New York’s defense has looked improved recently, but that stems primarily from getting to face Cam Ward in a nor’easter. Shutting down Daniels is a far tougher task. Despite his upside, Daniels is projected for almost no ownership on this slate. He’s particularly appealing on DraftKings, where his $6,000 salary comes with a position-best 87% Bargain Rating.
Malik Willis ($4,600 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel)
Speaking of rushing upside, Willis possesses more than just about anyone this Sunday. He’s averaged 28.0 rushing yards per game through his first four outings, and he still probably isn’t using his legs enough. The Dolphins have the worst group of skill-position players in football, especially after losing De’Von Achane.
Willis should have the chance to make some plays vs. the Bengals. Their defense is better than it has been in previous years, but it’s still not particularly impressive. They surrendered 30 points to Aaron Rodgers and company two weeks ago, while Baker Mayfield and the disastrous Buccaneers’ offense got them for 27 points in Week 1.
Willis is going to be facing an uphill battle with the Dolphins all season, but his legs will always give him some appeal for fantasy purposes. If he has a big rushing game, he has the potential to crush his $4,600 price tag.
Pictured: Jared Goff
Photo Credit: Imagn
