NFL Week 4 wraps up with the 20th anniversary of the Hurricane Katrina game. The New Orleans Saints will host the Atlanta Falcons, with the Saints listed as 1.5-point favorites. The total sits at 47.5 points, so there is the potential for a fair amount of scoring.
Both teams are currently 1-2, and the winner will tie the Panthers atop the division. It’s one of the most wide-open divisions in football, so every win has the potential to be the difference-maker.
Let’s dive into all the DFS options for Monday Night Football.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by award-winning expert ranker Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Bijan Robinson has been one of the best running backs in fantasy ever since arriving in the NFL, and he’s off to another fantastic start this season. He’s scored at least 31.3 DraftKings points in two of his first three games, and he benefits from some of the best usage in football. Specifically, his 22% target share was the best mark at running back through the first three weeks.
Robinson does occasionally lose some work between the 20s, but he makes up for it by dominating the most important touches. In addition to his work as a receiver, Robinson has also handled 100% of the carries from inside the five-yard line. That’s a big change from last season, when Robinson split those touches with Tyler Allgeier.
Robinson should continue his success in this matchup. The Saints’ defense has been suspect so far this season. They’re currently 29th in defensive EPA, including No. 26 against the run. They’ve allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing RBs, and Robinson owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.2.
Jahmyr Gibbs – who is probably Robinson’s closest fantasy comparable – torched the Saints for 37.6 DraftKings points in Week 1. There’s no reason Robinson can’t do the same. He leads all players in median and ceiling projection, as well as projected Plus/Minus. Robinson has the highest optimal Captain Rate in Sim Labs, and while he’s projected to be the highest-owned option at the position, it’s still well below what the numbers say he should be.
After Robinson, this tier features two of the best young receivers in football: Chris Olave and Drake London.
Let’s start with Olave. He’s off to an excellent start this season and enters Week 4 as the WR4 for fantasy purposes. He’s posted a 29% target share and 48% air yards share, both ranking in the top six at the position. Olave has finished with double-digit targets in all three games, and he’s responded with either 100+ receiving yards or a touchdown in each. He’s scored at least 22.6 DraftKings points in all three games, good for a positive Plus/Minus in each.
Olave should remain the clear focal point of New Orleans’ offense. If anything, his role should only grow following Travis Etienne’s injury. The Saints already had the second-highest dropback rate in football (69%), and they might have to go even more pass-heavy moving forward. Olave ultimately ranks third in projected Plus/Minus, making him a strong choice on this slate.
London is cheaper than Olave, but that could be a mistake. While London does have to share the workload with Robinson, his track record with Michael Penix at quarterback is outstanding. Through the first nine games last season – eight of which came with Penix – London posted a 32% target share while averaging 21.4 DraftKings points per game. He finished as a top-four scorer at the position on four separate occasions, including two WR1 finishes.
London got off to a slow start this season playing alongside Cooper Rush and Jack Strand, so no one was happier to see Penix back in the lineup in Week 3. The two picked up right where they left off, with London gobbling up 41% of the team’s targets and 55% of their air yards. He responded with nine catches for 194 yards. The only thing he didn’t manage to do was find the end zone, but he still finished as the WR2 for the week.
That’s the type of upside that London brings to the table with Penix under center. The Saints haven’t been quite as poor against receivers as they have vs. running backs, but London is still capable of going off in this spot. He’s arguably too cheap at $10,000.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
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