Week 3 NFL DFS QB Breakdown: Top Cash Game and Tournament Picks

The quarterback position is one of the most flexible in NFL DFS. You can go in a variety of different ways. Do you pay up for one of the top studs or try to save some money with a value option? Do you eat the chalk or look for a low-owned option with upside? There’s no 100% one-size-fits-all answer, so each slate and contest type is going to require thought and consideration.

In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.

As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

Top NFL DFS Cash Game Picks

Josh Allen ($8,000 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel)

Allen has looked absolutely unstoppable through the first two weeks. He’s amassed nine total touchdowns – five passing and four rushing – and he’s scored at least 38.66 DraftKings points in each contest. If Allen can maintain that pace, he’s looking at a historic season.

While some regression is likely, the gap between Allen and the rest of the field at quarterback is as wide as ever. He’s averaged nearly 10 more fantasy points than every other passer in football. He combines huge passing upside with rushing prowess like few others in the league, and their defense has been shaky enough to force Allen to keep his foot on the gas for four quarters.

The Bills are expected to do plenty of damage again in Week 3. They’re currently implied for 28.75 points, which is tied for the top mark on the slate. If they’re going to do that much scoring, expect Allen to have his hands in most of it.

Ultimately, Allen leads the position in median and ceiling projection by a pretty wide margin. He’s also third in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus and No. 1 on FanDuel, so he’s one of the better pure values as well. Spending up at quarterback is never easy (especially on DraftKings), but it could be the correct decision with how well Allen is playing.

Tyler Shough ($5,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)

If you can’t afford Allen, Shough stands out as a nice combination of value and upside. He currently leads the NFL in passing yards, averaging 331 through his first two outings. He got off to a shaky start vs. the Lions in Week 1 but rebounded with a monster second half, and he followed that up with a near-perfect performance vs. the Ravens. Shough completed 27-of-34 passes for 252 yards and one score, good for an average of 8.0 adjusted yards per attempt.

Shough also put his rushing upside on display in that matchup. While he’s far from an elite runner, he’s not a non-factor either. He had nine carries for 23 yards and a score vs. the Ravens, and he had three rushing scores in his nine starts last season.

Shough’s price tag has yet to reflect his production on DraftKings. His $5,400 salary comes with a 94% Bargain Rating, and he’s merely the 13th-most-expensive passer on the slate. That’s not too shabby for the current QB5 in terms of fantasy scoring. He ranks first at the position in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus.

Top NFL DFS Tournament Picks

Brock Purdy ($6,500 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)

The 49ers’ offense looks back to peak form. They were a historically good unit back in 2023-24, which was basically the last time they had everyone healthy. They’re second in that department through the first two weeks, trailing only Allen’s Bills.

Purdy has been a huge part of their success. He’s been among the most efficient passers in football to start the year, averaging 9.8 adjusted yards per attempt with five touchdowns and one interception.

Purdy is also a better runner than you might think. He’s averaged 29.5 rushing yards through his first two games, and he’s also added a touchdown. Since the start of 2024-25, Purdy has now averaged 20.3 yards per game with nine touchdowns in his past 26 contests. That gives him just enough upside when compared with his right arm.

Purdy draws a fantastic matchup this week vs. the Cardinals. He’s listed as an 8.5-point favorite, and the 49ers’ 28.0 implied team total is tied for the third highest on the slate. The Cardinals were shredded by Drew Lock and company last week, and the 49ers’ offense features significantly more firepower.

Purdy ultimately trails only Allen in terms of projected ceiling, and he trails only Shough in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus. That makes him a nice combination of value and upside.

Kyler Murray ($5,100 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)

We’ve yet to see what Murray is truly capable of in the Vikings offense. He exited Week 1 early with a concussion, and he was unable to return in time for Week 2. The Vikings ended up going 2-0 in his stead, and Murray will make his return to the lineup this Sunday vs. the Buccaneers.

It’s a solid spot for Murray’s return. Tampa Bay hasn’t been great defensively to start the year, ranking 21st in pass defense EPA. Opposing QBs have also averaged +3.3 additional fantasy points per game when facing the Bucs so far this season, exceeding their season averages both on the ground and through the air. That’s over a small sample size, but it’s excellent news for a dual-threat QB like Murray.

Before last year’s disastrous campaign with the Cardinals, Murray has always been a productive fantasy player when on the field. He’s been a perennial top-10 QB in terms of fantasy points per game, so there are reasons to be excited about what he can do in Minnesota. Not only is he working with an excellent offensive head coach, but he also gets to throw to one of the best receivers in football. Murray is really affordable across the industry, and if he can perform like he has for most of his career, he should deliver excellent value.

Patrick Mahomes ($6,200 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel)

Are the Chiefs back? It’s definitely possible. They’re off to a 2-0 start this season, and their offense looks better than it has in years. Adding Kenneth Walker has given them a legit run game for the first time in ages, and the Chiefs have responded with the most yards and third-most points in the league through the first two weeks.

Walker did most of the damage in Week 1, but Mahomes was the main man in Week 2. He racked up 47 pass attempts vs. the Colts, which he parlayed into 382 yards and three scores.

Mahomes probably won’t have to throw quite as much this week vs. the Dolphins, but he should be extremely successful when he does take to the air. The Dolphins have been an absolute disaster to start the year, ranking dead last in pass defense EPA.

The Chiefs are tied with the Bills for the top implied team total on the slate, and Mahomes is still available at a slight discount. If he’s back to being Patrick Mahomes, $6,200 is simply not enough.

Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Picks With Upside

Jameis Winston ($4,000 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel)

It seems like Jaxson Dart is going to miss the rest of the season for the Giants, which leaves Winston as the next man up at quarterback. Winston looked dreadful in relief of Dart last week, but that was against an elite Rams’ defense. He was under constant duress, but we know what Winston is capable of in the right environment. He’s going to make some bad decisions, but he’s also going to make some big plays.

Winston should have many more opportunities to make plays this week vs. the Titans, especially after getting a week to prepare. The Titans are just 28th in pass defense EPA through two weeks, so Winston is in a much better spot for success.

The big selling point here is the price tag. Winston is priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings, so he doesn’t need to do much to potentially return value. 

Geno Smith ($4,900 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel)

Smith has looked like a completely different player for the Jets than he did last year with the Raiders. His numbers don’t jump off the page, but he’s been pretty efficient. Overall, he’s averaged 7.4 adjusted yards per attempt after a disastrous 5.9 mark last season.

Smith and the Jets are going to have the opportunity to crank the volume up to 11 in Week 3. They’re taking on the Lions, who have been a goldmine for fantasy purposes this season. Their secondary has been ravaged by injuries, and they’ve allowed at least 30 points to each of their first two opponents. If Smith gets the opportunity to throw 40+ times against this opponent, he could put up huge numbers.

Smith ultimately stands out as one of the most undervalued QBs on the slate. He’s projected for just 2.2% ownership on DraftKings, yet his optimal lineup rate is closer to 5.5% in Sim Labs. That’s the second-largest discrepancy at the position.

Drake Maye ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)

I’m not giving up on Maye yet. He’s started the season with two subpar outings, but those came against the Seahawks and Steelers. Those are two quality defenses, and both currently rank in the top three in pass defense EPA.

Maye’s matchup this week should be slightly easier. The Jaguars aren’t an elite matchup, but they’re in the middle of the pack in terms of pass defense and fantasy points allowed to QBs so far this season.

That said, this play is primarily about Maye. He was one of the best QBs in fantasy last season, ranking second at the position in fantasy points per game. Unless he’s hurt, there’s no reason he shouldn’t bounce back this season.

Pictured: Josh Allen
Photo Credit: Imagn