Sunday’s main slate for Week 2 features 13 games. Below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 2.
Specifically, I will be focusing on ownership projections and leverage scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify undervalued targets. Leverage scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
Note: These leverage scores can also change as projected ownership and projections change throughout the weekend.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Tyler Shough ($5,300) + Chris Olave ($7,200) + Devaughn Vele ($4,200)
Note: Olave was limited in practice Thursday with a hamstring injury, so be sure to pay attention to his game status.
These Saints players are all underpriced, and this stack should perform well for the second week in a row. New Orleans is visiting the Ravens, and this game’s 46.5-point total is the third-highest on the slate. The Saints are 8.5-point road underdogs, and they should be forced to air it out as they try to keep up with the Ravens.
New Orleans faced a very similar situation in Week 1 when it visited the Lions. In that contest, the Saints were seven-point road underdogs, and the game had a 49.5-point total. New Orleans fell behind early but fought its way back and scored 30 points. Shough finished with a career-best 29.2 DraftKings points, marking his fifth outing with at least 22 DraftKings points in his last six starts.
The quarterback threw for a career-high 410 yards and three touchdowns to two picks. Shough is averaging 7.2 YPA over the last two seasons, and while he rushed for only eight yards last week, he carried the ball four times, including once in the red zone. In Shough’s 10 starts over the last two seasons, he has averaged 4.2 carries per game and rushed the ball 14 times in the red zone. Shough has scored three rushing touchdowns, and he has produced multiple touchdowns in 5 of 10 career starts. Shough is a legitimate dual-threat quarterback, and his $5,300 salary is criminally low for this type of game environment.
The Ravens have been very vulnerable to receivers over the last two seasons, giving up the second-most catches (233) and third-most yards to the position (3,013). That makes this a great spot for both Olave and Vele to flourish. Both players started the season on a high note last week, scoring 31.2 and 19.9 DraftKings points vs. the Lions, respectively. Olave caught 10 of 13 targets for 182 yards – including four targets over 20 yards and one red-zone target – and he is averaging a mammoth 30.1 DraftKings PPG over his last four games. Olave is leading the Saints with a 26.8% target share and 2.21 YPRR over the last two seasons.
Meanwhile, Vele was the clear No. 2 receiver for the Saints this past Sunday with Jordyn Tyson (hamstring) on IR. Vele caught 7 of 9 targets for 69 yards and a touchdown. He ran a route on 92% of his team’s dropbacks and saw a target on 15% of his routes, including one red-zone target and one target over 20 yards. Vele is going to maintain this type of role until Tyson returns, and he is way underpriced at only $4,200.
While Olave is expected to crack double-digit ownership on DraftKings, both Shough and Vele are projected for single-digit ownership, according to our projections. Thus, very few lineups should feature this stack.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
David Montgomery ($6,500)
After trading for Montgomery and inking him to a two-year, $16.5 million extension this offseason, the Texans fed him a large workload in Week 1 vs. the Bills. Montgomery rushed 20 times for 60 yards and two touchdowns, and he caught all three of his targets for 19 yards and another touchdown, resulting in 28.9 DraftKings points.
Montgomery logged 49.4% of the snaps, and five of his 20 rushes came in the red zone. The back ran a route on 33% of his team’s dropbacks, and he saw a target on 21% of those routes, including one red-zone look.
The Texans are 2.5-point home favorites over the Bengals this Sunday, and Houston’s implied team total is 24.5 points. Montgomery should see around 20 touches, and this is a beautiful matchup, as Cincinnati has allowed the most yards per play since the start of last season (6.1).
Montgomery is a game-best -140 to score a touchdown on DraftKings Sportsbook, and the back brings huge upside in this spot. He has generated a strong 0.44 FPTS per snap over the last two seasons, and he is a fantastic tournament play, with our projections forecasting him around 12% ownership on DraftKings as of Friday morning.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Mike Evans ($6,600)
Hosting the Dolphins, the 49ers carry the highest implied team total on the slate (29.5 points). With most of the field looking to gain exposure to this offense through Christian McCaffrey, Evans is expected to get overlooked, making him a tremendous target. Our projections have him at around 6% ownership on DraftKings.
In his 49ers debut last week, Evans was great vs. the Rams, posting 16.9 DraftKings points. The veteran caught 6 of 7 targets for 49 yards and a touchdown. Evans led the team in target share (20.6%) and routes (26). The receiver saw two red-zone targets, and he averaged 1.9 YPRR, a notable improvement over his 1.6 YPRR with the Buccaneers last season. His 86% catch rate was also a big upgrade over the career-worst 48.4% rate he finished with a year ago.
It’s only one game, but the switch from Baker Mayfield to Brock Purdy may revitalize Evans. He brings the upside to score 20 DraftKings points against this weak Dolphins defense, which has allowed the eighth-most yards per play over the last two seasons (5.7).
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Dallas Goedert ($4,800)
Most of the field is going to punt at tight end with Michael Mayer or Dalton Schultz, or pay all the way up for Trey McBride. In the middle of all that, Goedert is expected to get lost in the shuffle. The tight end is projected for only around 6% ownership, according to our projections, and he is way too cheap for his new role sans A.J. Brown.
In the Eagles’ first game since trading Brown to the Patriots, Goedert posted a 4/77/2 receiving line this past Sunday vs. the Commanders, en route to 23.7 DraftKings points. The tight end is now averaging 16.9 DraftKings PPG across the six games he has played without Brown over the last three seasons. In those contests, Goedert has seen a target on 21% of his routes – including six red-zone targets – and has averaged 2.5 YPRR.
Goedert is one of the top tight ends in fantasy with Brown out of town, and this may be the cheapest we see him for the rest of the season. Goedert is facing a Titans defense that has allowed the fifth-most yards per play over the last two seasons (5.8), and he should be one of the top-scoring tight ends on the slate in this matchup.
Pictured: David Montgomery
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
